Jump to content
The Weather Forums

June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, GobBluth said:

The 500 mb pattern doesn't look that different than the hotter models. 

I have a feeling the synoptic pattern has been figured out, it's just small deviations that have pretty big ramifications on our individual situations (wow the flow).

  • Like 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It never crashes on the 00Z GFS... just mellows a little into a very warm pattern but not extremely hot through the holiday weekend.   I am also assuming that pattern over the holiday weekend actually results in temps in the 80s and not the 90s the GFS is showing now.

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It never crashes on the 00Z GFS... just mellows a little into a very warm pattern but not extremely hot through the holiday weekend.   I am also assuming that pattern over the holiday weekend actually results in temps in the 80s and not the 90s the GFS is showing now.

I'd assume that Monday ends up much cooler than predicted on the GFS w/ that kind of marine push. Mixes too much near the surface IMO.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I'd assume that Monday ends up much cooler than predicted on the GFS w/ that kind of marine push. Mixes too much near the surface IMO.

Agreed.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the meantime... the marine layer is pretty far inland now and the models show it reaching all the way out here for a few hours tomorrow morning before burning off by late morning.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well at least it only shows us around 90F for the 4th as of now. Plenty of time for that to change.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It never crashes on the 00Z GFS... just mellows a little into a very warm pattern but not extremely hot through the holiday weekend.   I am also assuming that pattern over the holiday weekend actually results in temps in the 80s and not the 90s the GFS is showing now.

It does crash in the LR.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It does crash in the LR.

Well... technically its still in the mid 70s on day 15.    But anything beyond 240 hours will look completely different on the next run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I've noticed is the trend is for slightly lower heights this weekend.  The 597 to 600 area is shorter lived, so we might be spared getting hotter than July 2009.  100 to 104 still seems like a good bet for SEA though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

One thing I've noticed is the trend is for slightly lower heights this weekend.  The 597 to 600 area is shorter lived, so we might be spared getting hotter than July 2009.  100 to 104 still seems like a good bet for SEA though.

That is literally July 2009 lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Would be so nice if we could have a cold and wet 4th of July weekend to offset this extreme heat but we all know that won’t happen.

Pattern change moves up a few days then it’s a possibility. 🤞 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

It does crash in the LR.

That is a major crash.  I hope it happens.  It would look so cool in the record books to have a totally wild temperature swing after the heat blast.

  • Excited 1
  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That is literally July 2009 lol

Yeah...SEA hit 103 with that.  For a while it looked like 105 or so might happen.  Still could I suppose.

People should bear in mind that early extreme heat can be very hard on plants compared to later heat events.  I know they had a bunch of problems in the June 1955 heat blast, but that was earlier.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is a major crash.  I hope it happens.  It would look so cool in the record books to have a totally wild temperature swing after the heat blast.

Has there ever been a heat wave without some cooler weather a couple weeks in the future?

Hell... out here we had 4 days in July 2015 that were totally cloudy and stayed in the 60s.    And some days like that in August 2009.    I am pretty sure it always happens.

  • Downvote 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Would be so nice if we could have a cold and wet 4th of July weekend to offset this extreme heat but we all know that won’t happen.

Safe to say the 5th of July rule is probably not going to hold true this year.  It might be just the opposite.  Some summers do blow their load early.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pattern change moves up a few days then it’s a possibility. 🤞 

Not this far south. We’ve reached full 90s gung-ho mode by this time of year now.

  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Has there ever been a heat wave without some cooler weather a couple weeks in the future?

Hell... out here we had 4 days in July 2015 that were totally cloudy and stayed in the 60s.  

I'm talking extraordinary.  Obvious an extremely amplified pattern has a chance of delivering a huge crash.  There are two sides to the coin in highly amplified regimes.  As I mentioned earlier we had the major crash in June that even the NWS commented on.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Not this far south. We’ve reached full 90s gung-ho mode by this time of year now.

You'll have plenty of sub 90 days.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm talking extraordinary.  Obvious an extremely amplified pattern has a chance of delivering a huge crash.  There are two sides to the coin in highly amplified regimes.  As I mentioned earlier we had the major crash in June that even the NWS commented on.

Well if you roll it out long enough... it will always happen.   But this is the complete opposite of a flash heat wave with sudden switch from cold to hot and back to cold within a few days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pattern change moves up a few days then it’s a possibility. 🤞 

My guess is that its delayed more... if it comes at all.    The 00Z GEFS is pretty toasty going into the holiday weekend and warmer than the 12Z run.    That is a strong signal at day 11... especially considering all that is coming before then.    Remember when the GEFS was showing troughing before the end of June?

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5313600.png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see Monday might only be upper 80s-lower 90s instead of 10 degrees hotter. Still going to be a HOT few days. 

  • Like 2

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think its a given right now that June is going to end up significantly warmer than normal.    And wetter than normal.

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Nice to see Monday might only be upper 80s-lower 90s instead of 10 degrees hotter. Still going to be a HOT few days. 

So much easier to deal with when you know the extreme heat will be short-lived.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Last visit to T-Mobile before the place goes up in flames this weekend!

 

863F0213-142E-42FD-8808-7074BA4E324F.jpeg

And they won again!   They are on quite a roll.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think its a given right now that June is going to end up significantly warmer than normal.    And wetter than normal.

For everyone from the Eugene airport north. We will finish below normal rainfall in Springfield.

  • Sad 2

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not so good on Sunday... although this is about 4 degrees cooler for Seattle than the 12Z run.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4838400 (2).png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z ECMWF for Saturday... I can deal with low to mid 90s.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4752000.png

Only 79˚F for a max at YVR… but look at that 90˚F a short distance away in East Van. That 102˚F at YXX probably won’t materialize, but a reading well into the 90’s is quite likely. The Fraser Valley can really bake during heat waves.

Vancouver's airport is a highly unrepresentative sample of what weather conditions in the entire metro area are during heat waves. I have seen this sort of thing happen again and again. Something to keep in mind when one enviously glances at the weather reports to the north.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Only 79˚F for a max at YVR… but look at that 90˚F a short distance away in East Van. That 102˚F at YXX probably won’t materialize, but a reading well into the 90’s is quite likely. The Fraser Valley can really bake during heat waves.

Vancouver's airport is a highly unrepresentative sample of what weather conditions in the entire metro area are during heat waves. I have seen this sort of thing happen again and again. Something to keep in mind when one enviously glances at the weather reports to the north.

Using YVR for the entire Vancouver metro is like using SFO for the entire Bay Area.

  • Like 3
  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Only 79˚F for a max at YVR… but look at that 90˚F a short distance away in East Van. That 102˚F at YXX probably won’t materialize, but a reading well into the 90’s is quite likely. The Fraser Valley can really bake during heat waves.

Vancouver's airport is a highly unrepresentative sample of what weather conditions in the entire metro area are during heat waves. I have seen this sort of thing happen again and again. Something to keep in mind when one enviously glances at the weather reports to the north.

Interesting, thanks for the tidbit. I've always wondered about the microclimate up there.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its 106 in Portland at 11 a.m. on Monday morning per the 00Z ECMWF... that is just nuts.   Cooler air trying to sneak in down south though.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4903200.png

  • Popcorn 1
  • Sick 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord... highs on Monday.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4924800 (2).png

That's really crazy!

Above Richmond Beach, Shoreline. 475 feet

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Weather station/wx cam:
http://map.bloomsky.com/weather-stations/gqBxp6apnJSnqqm2

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABOTHE144#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Good Lord... highs on Monday.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4924800 (2).png

Hard pass for me.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ULL looks like its going to stay offshore... but as it comes north it induces onshore flow quickly on Monday evening.   The marine layer is coming inland by late evening.   And Portland goes from 117 down to the upper 70s in just 6 hours.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-4946400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4946400.png

  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow we cool off all the way to the low 90s. And that’s our “marine push” if we have a heatwave or east wind event on the 4th then Oregon’s economy will be destroyed.

  • Sad 1
  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The ULL looks like its going to stay offshore... but as it comes north it induces onshore flow quickly on Monday evening.   The marine layer is coming inland by late evening.   And Portland goes from 117 down to the upper 70s in just 6 hours.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-4946400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4946400.png

That would be one epic crash.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 a.m. on Tuesday... marine layer never makes it inland but you can clearly see the marine influence pushing the hot air out to the north and east.  

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4989600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

High temps on Tuesday... just a typical hot day and not record smashing.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5011200 (1).png

  • Popcorn 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...