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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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Too bad it’s the ICON. That model will often show good stuff in the winter but we don’t ever get Arctic cold down here anymore so it’s not trustworthy.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The ICON is great for Europe. Not so much globally. Although, the resolution is pretty solid. I check out its precipitation forecasts pretty frequently for our area. It's hit or miss. I have seen it nail the forecast better than any other models, but I have also seen it way off.

Another tool in our belt, but the Euro, GFS, and even GEM need to be prioritized.

Soon, we will be within high resolution model range. We're through Saturday afternoon on the NAM, high-res GEM, and WRF-GFS. The 12z NAM pegs us at 102 on Saturday. The GEM is 101.

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Weird morning here.  After last night's thunderstorm w/ heavy rain, I woke up this morning to everything soaked with a thick fog that just burned off a few minutes ago, going for a high in the mid 80's.  It feels like it may be southern style muggy this afternoon.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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Almost every day is 90F or hotter…

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF cool bias has nothing to do with UHI.    It runs too cool for the entire Puget Sound region on those days.   Its cool bias is even more exaggerated out here than in Seattle.   I am pretty sure there is an error in the formula locally which overestimates the cooling power of the Sound in this area.

Wasn't saying it did, was just commenting on that aspect of those days as well.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Any moderate or worse east wind event and this part of the region won’t be able to handle it.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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One nice thing on the 12z GFS is starting Tuesday morning the low temps are able to drop a little better due to stronger onshore flow. After lows in the 70s in the days prior, which won't provide much relief for those trying to cool their houses without AC, Tuesday has lows in the 60s and Wednesday has low temps in the 50s. Much better.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

One nice thing on the 12z GFS is starting Tuesday morning the low temps are able to drop a little better due to stronger onshore flow. After lows in the 70s in the days prior, which won't provide much relief for those trying to cool their houses without AC, Tuesday has lows in the 60s and Wednesday has low temps in the 50s. Much better.

00Z ECMWF showed the same thing.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

High pressure ALWAYS overperforms compared to initial forecasts in regards to intensity and duration. 

Not good as we get closer to the event then.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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6 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

One nice thing on the 12z GFS is starting Tuesday morning the low temps are able to drop a little better due to stronger onshore flow. After lows in the 70s in the days prior, which won't provide much relief for those trying to cool their houses without AC, Tuesday has lows in the 60s and Wednesday has low temps in the 50s. Much better.

Hard to believe this will be widespread, considering climo, but we are getting closer to the event and most models don't seem to be blinking. Crazy.

I'm still a bit skeptical.

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12Z GFS shows another ridge building in the for the holiday weekend.   If we aren't screwed by that point... the fireworks should finish the job.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

We lost the Canadian

Still brings a faster marine push than other models but seems to have come into relative agreement with the EURO and GFS.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Waiting for the 12z UKMET to finish running on pivotal but here is what it shows for Monday and Tuesday mornings on the French website.

 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually... 00Z GFS keeps it pretty reasonable for the 4th.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5443200 (1).png

Nice and comfortable for the 4th, I'll take it.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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A more traditional summer pattern at the end of GFS run.   Maybe a page out of the 1950s.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5832000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Outpost54 said:

Can you post this map for the worst of it on Sunday? Thanks!

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4838400 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4838400 (1).png

Thank you! If not too much trouble, would love to see Monday too since apparently that's where the 121 is.

I really need to just pay for a Weatherbell subscription lol

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4 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Thank you! If not too much trouble, would love to see Monday too since apparently that's where the 121 is.

I really need to just pay for a Weatherbell subscription lol

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4924800 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Ouch, brutal...  I wonder if the Euro will show this...  If it does, they should think about opening up cooling centers and issuing some emergency declarations..

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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The GEFS keeps trending warmer for the holiday weekend... a couple days ago Phil was telling me that the warm 850mb temps shown in that period were just model noise and I was reading it wrong.   But the signal is getting stronger as it gets closer.   Really scary situation coming up with fireworks added to the mix.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5356800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

image.png.eb703aa801e08772a1da91eaccc5c25f.png

This is gold! 😜

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The GEFS keeps trending warmer for the holiday weekend... a couple days ago Phil was telling me that the warm 850mb temps shown in that period were just model noise and I was reading it wrong.   But the signal is getting stronger as it gets closer.   Really scary situation coming up with fireworks added to the mix.

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5356800.png

They should probably ban the sale of fireworks but that might be politically untenable after a year+ of COVID restrictions. Just banning the use of them wouldn't do anything because idiots are going to light them off anyway.

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4 minutes ago, James Jones said:

They should probably ban the sale of fireworks but that might be politically untenable after a year+ of COVID restrictions. Just banning the use of them wouldn't do anything because idiots are going to light them off anyway.

It's gonna make it worse. They'll light off even more fireworks in "rebellion."

If there is an east wind event and heat on the holiday weekend then we will be a smoky and fiery hell for 2-3 months.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

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9 minutes ago, James Jones said:

They should probably ban the sale of fireworks but that might be politically untenable after a year+ of COVID restrictions. Just banning the use of them wouldn't do anything because idiots are going to light them off anyway.

People already have them. It would be too late for this, and I already have heard fireworks being set off nearby.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (7)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

People already have them. It would be too late for this, and I already have heard fireworks being set off nearby.

I’ve already heard people lighting off fireworks. Quite a few people buy them early…so I’m sure people who’ve already spent a lot of money on them aren’t going to just say “ ok I’ll wait til next year”. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Any moderate or worse east wind event and this part of the region won’t be able to handle it.

I’m sure there’ll be periods of light to moderate offshore winds coming. Haven’t looked at any wind maps yet but I’d imagine it’s going to be a concern. 

Monthly rainfall-0.00”

Warm season rainfall-5.26”

+80s-27

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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