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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m interested to see how high dewpoints get out there w/ this event. Some guidance has dews in briefly hitting the upper 60s to near 70°F on a couple evenings (when boundary layer mixing subsides). But not sure that’s realistic?

I hope at least one evening does reach 70+ so y’all can have an appreciation for how awful it is.

It's basically a certainty with our higher end regional events, actually. Everyone will probably top out somewhere in the 65-70 range with this, maybe some lower 70s near Abbotsford.

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What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's basically a certainty with our higher end regional events, actually. Everyone will probably top out somewhere in the 65-70 range with this, maybe some lower 70s near Abbotsford.

Interesting. A dark part of me hopes that aspect overperforms and you guys end up with mid-70s dews. I think it would be a healthy learning experience. :D 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

Wtf. This guy was your best friend? Did he just go mental or something?

Glad you’re ok man.

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8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

Wow yea get out of there. Glad to hear you’re ok

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. A dark part of me hopes that aspect overperforms and you end up with mid-70s dews. I think it would be a healthy learning experience. :D 

I wouldn't mind that with temps around 95. :wub:

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting. A dark part of me hopes that aspect overperforms and you guys end up with mid-70s dews. I think it would be a healthy learning experience. :D 

That would take something extraordinarily fluky here. We just don’t have a good enough mid level moisture source which doesn’t involve onshore flow. Probably the only scenario would involve some sort of extreme heat event with a sudden convective outbreak.  

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

Holy . How many times did you have sex with his mom?

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15 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

Glad you’re OK. Sorry this happened to you and I hope you can find a safer place to live.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wtf. This guy was your best friend? Did he just go mental or something?

Glad you’re ok man.

Has serious meth and heroin addiction issues. Our friendship went sour when i confronted him about it. Very sad I’ve known him my whole life. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

Holy . How many times did you have sex with his mom?

Lol, no he’s got some very serious mental health issues. I seriously hope he can get some help and I can move out of the area as soon as possible. Have been considering moving for awhile now but this pretty much settles it. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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40 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows consistent warmth after the extreme heat event... in reality this is a long string of mid to upper 80s in Seattle given its cool bias.

eps 6-24.png

Hard to imagine that with onshore flow at times every day would hit mid to upper 80s. Even with the extended hot/warm spells of 2017, 2015, 1981, etc that didn't happen. Depending on what happens with the thermal trough, very decent chance Tue and/or Wed could end up cooler than currently forecast.

I don't believe the Euro "cool bias" is a universal thing you can apply to every day. Hell, we've seen that a couple of times just this week.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Hard to imagine that with onshore flow at times every day would hit mid to upper 80s. Even with the extended hot/warm spells of 2017, 2015, 1981, etc that didn't happen. Depending on what happens with the thermal trough, very decent chance Tue and/or Wed could end up cooler than currently forecast.

I don't believe the Euro "cool bias" is a universal thing you can apply to every day. Hell, we've seen that a couple of times just this week.

We are in a new era. Even in onshore flow we get into the 90s here now.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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52 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

 

I noticed that too but then they have a forecast on the front page that shows much higher numbers.  Sistek is on board with triple digits. 

NWS going with 102 for SEA on Sunday.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Hard to imagine that with onshore flow at times every day would hit mid to upper 80s. Even with the extended hot/warm spells of 2017, 2015, 1981, etc that didn't happen. Depending on what happens with the thermal trough, very decent chance Tue and/or Wed could end up cooler than currently forecast.

I don't believe the Euro "cool bias" is a universal thing you can apply to every day. Hell, we've seen that a couple of times just this week.

All true... but I think the main point is that its going to stay warm.    I am not focused on the details of each day except for this weekend and Monday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What an absolute sh*t morning. Driving to work and noticed a smell of gas coming from the car…car suddenly wouldn’t steer and shut off in the middle of the road. Thankfully some nice people helped me push it out of the road. Had my grandpa and a mechanic look at it…looks very likely someone got into the hood of my car and the fuel lines were intentionally cut. It’s not something I’ve mentioned on here before…but I have a civil anti-harassment order against a neighbor and former best friend of mine. Have been dealing with constant harassment such as being woken up in the middle of the night by this guy yelling at my window…spitting on my car and p*ssing on my car. This guy has been stalking me since early March…and just 2 nights ago I woke up to open my bedroom window and he was staring up at me in my window at 12 In the morning or something. Really creepy and very scary…probably will be finding a new place to live. Haven’t felt safe in my own home for a long time.  Have called the police on this guy 10-15 times but still haven’t had enough to get the police to do something. It seems like he has more protections than I do. Can’t prove he did this to my car though since my nieghbor below me doesn’t like me and won’t share the camera footage! Will be getting a camera and moving the f*ck out of here. I’m very lucky my car didn’t catch on fire with the amount of fuel leaking. 

Sorry to hear this but glad it didn't end up with a car accident.

If you are looking for security cameras that don't break the bank, I recommend Wyze cams. They are between $25-$35 (depending on which version you get, which I highly recommend v3 as it's a big improvement with nightsight over v2) and actually work pretty well. They can get a little notification-happy and ping you frequently if you live in a busy area, but otherwise it's a pretty solid camera and for the price point they are hard to beat.

https://wyze.com/wyze-cam.html

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

The Pacific Ocean to your west still has temps in the 50s...

And we are at almost 90F RN with winds from the SW.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sorry to hear this but glad it didn't end up with a car accident.

If you are looking for security cameras that don't break the bank, I recommend Wyze cams. They are between $25-$35 (depending on which version you get, which I highly recommend v3 as it's a big improvement with nightsight over v2) and actually work pretty well. They can get a little notification-happy and ping you frequently if you live in a busy area, but otherwise it's a pretty solid camera and for the price point they are hard to beat.

https://wyze.com/wyze-cam.html

I second Wyze cams. My B-I-L and I installed them at my in-laws second home in AZ. Super easy setup and long battery life. They've been fine in the AZ summer heat. 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

So you think no sub-90 highs next week? 🙂

Maybe 1 or 2 but it wouldn't surprise me if we hit 90F every day at some point.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 18)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

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19 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

So with the much ballyhooed cool bias, this means PDX should hit 91-93 today?

I don't track it for Portland too much.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The ECMWF cool bias is pretty consistent in the Puget Sound area on most non-stormy days.   The EPS is better overall.

For example... the 12Z ECMWF showed 71 at BLI and 78 at SEA today.     At 2 p.m. it was 74 at BLI and 78 at SEA.    

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43 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

So with the much ballyhooed cool bias, this means PDX should hit 91-93 today?

The actual PDX station has been one of the coolest spots in the metro area the past few days. Especially today. There are many nearby stations in the upper 80s or low 90s already. Mine included. 

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Steve Pierce update.

RECORD SETTING HEATWAVE NOW LOOMS!
Updated: 2:00PM Thursday

Prepare now! Models continue to increase temperatures across the area this weekend. An all-time record setting and potentially deadly heatwave is on the way across the Pacific Northwest this weekend and will last into next week. In the KOIN 6 weather center we are calling for high temperatures just shy of 110 in Portland on Sunday. That would crush the all-time record high of 107 set in August of 1981 at the Portland International Airport. 

Overnight low temperatures will not likely fall below 70-75 degrees in Portland for multiple nights. The all-time record warmest "overnight low" temperature in Portland is 74 degrees, set back in July of 2009. This will likely be challenged as well. Some areas of eastern Oregon and eastern Washington may reach 115 degrees. The all-time record high temperature for any location in Oregon or Washington is 119 degrees in Pendleton, Oregon set more than 120 years ago, in the late 1800's. Additional model runs will continue to come in over the next 24 hours and adjustments to these final temperatures WILL be forthcoming.

BOTTOM LINE --- Prepare now for a record setting all-time heatwave that will begin Friday and will last through at least Monday. Those without air conditioning should only open windows between 3AM and 6AM beginning Friday morning, for limited relief. Keep sun-facing window blinds closed as much as possible. Severe injury and loss of life are possible given this extreme heat. PLEASE CHECK ON THE ELDERLY AND KEEP YOUR PETS INSIDE! Please drink 2-3 times the average suggested daily intake of water, if you are outside. Please avoid alcohol!

Models are beginning to indicate a possible return to triple-digit heat as we near the 4th of July as well. More details on that later. The KOIN 6 weather team will continue to have updates on the heatwave.

Steve Pierce
KOIN 6 Meteorologist

FB_IMG_1624572247680.jpg

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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20 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

The actual PDX station has been one of the coolest spots in the metro area the past few days. Especially today. There are many nearby stations in the upper 80s or low 90s already. Mine included. 

The output is for PDX, though. And that's the station we'll all be watching to see how high it goes...

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The output is for PDX, though. And that's the station we'll all be watching to see how high it goes...

Yea, I hear you. I was just referencing your point about the Euro's cold bias here. It does exist. PDX just happens to be underperforming the last couple of days compared to other stations. That is not typically the case and I imagine it won't be this weekend. We'll see...

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18Z looks like it will be much more reasonable for the holiday weekend compared to the 12Z run.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yea, I hear you. I was just referencing your point about the Euro's cold bias here. It does exist. PDX just happens to be underperforming the last couple of days compared to other stations. That is not typically the case and I imagine it won't be this weekend. We'll see...

Models are spiking Portland's temps compared to rest of valley or even the metro area.

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4 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Models are spiking Portland's temps compared to rest of valley or even the metro area.

I think that is because of the easterly wind component (albeit relatively light). PDX is directly in the path of the gorge influence. It can make a huge difference when the wind is howling.

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The 18z is better for week two.  Now let's see if it holds.  The big difference is it sends a chunk of the high height area eastward instead of retrograding all of it back over us and just offshore.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea no joke, 114 on Monday for Tacoma.... @TacomaWaWx

I just can’t see Tacoma going more than a few degrees warmer than all time records. I think 104-106 is possible but nothing higher than 106 IMO. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I think that is because of the easterly wind component (albeit relatively light). PDX is directly in the path of the gorge influence. It can make a huge difference when the wind is howling.

The gorge isn’t a very relevant factor during our downslope heat events.  If we have any kind of hybrid gap winds associated with a heat pattern, more common in the early fall, the winds if they’re strong tend to mitigate highs.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

The gorge isn’t a very relevant factor during our downslope heat events.  If we have any kind of hybrid gap winds associated with a heat pattern, more common in the early fall, the winds if they’re strong tend to mitigate highs.

True, although the right amount of mixing in a midsummer compressional heating setup can still drive the temps up at PDX relative to other spots. The 107 on 7/30/1965 was achieved that way during what was a relatively run-of-the-mill  setup otherwise.

The offshore flow looks a bit steadier on Sunday however so I'm not sure they'll see a similar bump compared to the valley, and next week when the gradients go onshore again it obviously isn't a factor.

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8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True, although the right amount of mixing in a midsummer compressional heating setup can still drive the temps up at PDX relative to other spots. The 107 on 7/30/1965 was achieved that way during what was a relatively run-of-the-mill  setup otherwise.

The offshore flow looks a bit steadier on Sunday however so I'm not sure they'll see a similar bump compared to the valley, and next week when the gradients go onshore again it obviously isn't a factor.

It’s definitely not gorge-centric though.  The entire metro area well away from what would be considered the gorge’s wheelhouse would be affected.  Certainly not confined to just PDX.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

So with the much ballyhooed cool bias, this means PDX should hit 91-93 today?

82 at SEA now... 77 at BLI.

According to the ECMWF the highs today will be 78 and 71 respectively.    Cool bias.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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