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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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1 minute ago, Outpost54 said:

Why are there so many genuine lunatics on this board? Super weird.

There was a brief thread on here a while back where people were talking about being on the spectrum and many suggested that they themselves are that way which might somewhat explain the idiosyncratic beliefs and behavior on here although I am not a psychologist. Maybe weather hobbyism just attracts uhhh unique individuals in some sort of like attracts like cosmic law.

The other explanation is perhaps that the government is intentionally and systematically spraying unknown chemicals over all parts of populated america in an enormous and vast conspiracy in order to reduce the population or whatever it is that disheveled youtube guy said and you are a government agent sent here to try to discredit this through that ad hominem attack.

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4 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

There was a brief thread on here a while back where people were talking about being on the spectrum and many suggested that they themselves are that way which might somewhat explain the idiosyncratic beliefs and behavior on here although I am not a psychologist. Maybe weather hobbyism just attracts uhhh unique individuals in some sort of like attracts like cosmic law.

The other explanation is perhaps that the government is intentionally and systematically spraying unknown chemicals over all parts of populated america in an enormous and vast conspiracy in order to reduce the population or whatever it is that disheveled youtube guy said and you are a government agent sent here to try to discredit this through that ad hominem attack.

My money's on the chemtrails and weather machines

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

When did that happen?  I don't see his picture with the rest of the forecast team.  

I think he left sometime in mid April.  My brother works at KOMO and texted me back in April that he was leaving.  Fox is starting a streaming weather service and he joined them as Senior Digital Content Producer.

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Yeah... just beat the all time record high by 16 degrees.   That's not bat-sh*t crazy or anything.    

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4924800 (2).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Yep. However, PDX’s high will be in the early afternoon for a change. Probably around 100 at 10am. Incredible. 

This particular run holds off any significant onshore flow until around or just after peak heating.  

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Oh and then the temperature drops about 50 degrees in Seattle by late evening.    Typical marine push.

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4946400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

I have waited TWO years to join this forum.  Two whole years.  I registered way back when and they never approved my account, not denied it.  I sat in limbo.  I applied again last week and just not finally got approved.  No idea why it took so long but here I am!  Just in time for the scariest heat show ever in the PNW.

I've been watching these really nasty brown looking air in the Cascade crest... is that wildfire smoke?  If wildfire smoke made it down into the valleys of Western WA and OR, could hat limit the suns heat on us... or bake us more?  We've seen in it previous years when hot spells were quelled a few degrees because of a blanket of belching smoke from Siberia or California. And let me sort of answer my own question, it is wildfire smoke... but I don't know which fire it came from.  It's just sitting there.  I guess it came from BC?  

[img]https://i.imgur.com/TmtlCKK.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/liHBkkC.jpg[/img]

I look forward to joining the community. Hope it cools back down to our classical low 70s and 60s style summers really fast, but it doesn't look like it. 

Welcome!

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6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I have waited TWO years to join this forum.  Two whole years.  I registered way back when and they never approved my account, not denied it.  I sat in limbo.  I applied again last week and just not finally got approved.  No idea why it took so long but here I am!  Just in time for the scariest heat show ever in the PNW.

I've been watching these really nasty brown looking air in the Cascade crest... is that wildfire smoke?  If wildfire smoke made it down into the valleys of Western WA and OR, could hat limit the suns heat on us... or bake us more?  We've seen in it previous years when hot spells were quelled a few degrees because of a blanket of belching smoke from Siberia or California. And let me sort of answer my own question, it is wildfire smoke... but I don't know which fire it came from.  It's just sitting there.  I guess it came from BC?  

I look forward to joining the community. Hope it cools back down to our classical low 70s and 60s style summers really fast, but it doesn't look like it. 

1303441956_ScreenShot2021-06-24at9_07_53PM.png

2021-06-24 21.06.46.jpg

Is that Padilla Bay?

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11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

There’s that Aleutian heat pump again…

Works out better this time.    I am sure the 12Z run will be different.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Instead of 105 degrees on the 4th that the 12Z run showed... the 00Z run is much more chilly in the mid 90s.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5443200 (4).png

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not a good sign for the heat front moving north... 😐

Weak.  It’s like expecting a freight train of an Arctic front and seeing it’s 31F at Prince George.

#bust

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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3 minutes ago, jcmcgaffey said:

If this is anything like winter, models will pull the rug 24hrs before the event or go south with it. 

If it was winter, it would have already fallen apart. It’s happening.

The only thing that can stop it is a massive wildfire that blankets the area in thick smoke inhibiting the sun’s ability to heat the lower atmosphere.

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The forecasted freezing level is 18500 feet in the cascades this weekend LOL. That's a new one.

It’ll still manage to snow at Moss Man’s house.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

If it was winter, it would have already fallen apart. It’s happening.

The only thing that can stop it is a massive wildfire that blankets the area in thick smoke inhibiting the sun’s ability to heat the lower atmosphere.

I remember that happening before.  I think I would be willing to give up a major winter snow storm for no heavy wildfire smoke like we experienced in recent summers. 

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20 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Instead of 105 degrees on the 4th that the 12Z run showed... the 00Z run is much more chilly in the mid 90s.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5443200 (4).png

And a max of 66˚F at KBLI! Yeah, that’s sure gonna happen on the same day it’s in the 90’s in Seattle.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’ll still manage to snow at Moss Man’s house.

Pretty sure that is his elevation.    The land rises VERY quickly east of I5 up there.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is his elevation.    The land rises VERY quickly east of I5 up there.

The same people responsible for covering up the chemtrails conspiracy cover up the fact that Washington has a 18,500 foot mountain that nobody acknowledges.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... just beat the all time record high by 16 degrees.   That's not bat-sh*t crazy or anything.    

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-4924800 (2).png

Good lord. That is very difficult to believe.

Will be a number of deaths if that verifies. :( 

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9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

E4A38955-BF19-44D3-B19B-13343015E434.jpeg

In the contest I went with 102 on Sun/Mon for SEA. Monday I can see you folks getting to 103/104 max to set or tie your all time record high. 

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just ludicrous stuff that just leads you to think some kind of correction needs to happen.  100 degrees at 925mb at 11pm…

image.thumb.gif.47bb0ed6d2bb83145ed62eeef918dffd.gif

The summer that ended on July 5th.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Just ludicrous stuff that just leads you to think some kind of correction needs to happen.  100 degrees at 925mb at 11pm…

image.thumb.gif.47bb0ed6d2bb83145ed62eeef918dffd.gif

I went with 109 on Sunday for PDX but I have a bad feeling it might get to 112/113. I hope not.

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Has Bellingham ever been a full 40˚F cooler than Tacoma during a summer heat wave?

That’s something Justin would probably know.

My guess is no.

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1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

I have waited TWO years to join this forum.  Two whole years.  I registered way back when and they never approved my account, nor denied it.  I sat in limbo.  I applied again last week and just now finally got approved.  No idea why it took so long but here I am!  Just in time for the scariest heat show ever in the PNW.

I've been watching thuis really nasty brown looking air in the Cascade crest... is that wildfire smoke?  If wildfire smoke made it down into the valleys of Western WA and OR, could hat limit the suns heat on us... or bake us more?  We've seen in it previous years when hot spells were quelled a few degrees because of a blanket of belching smoke from Siberia or California. And let me sort of answer my own question, it is wildfire smoke... but I don't know which fire it came from.  It's just sitting there.  I guess it came from BC?  

I look forward to joining the community. Hope it cools back down to our classical low 70s and 60s style summers really fast, but it doesn't look like it. 

1303441956_ScreenShot2021-06-24at9_07_53PM.png

2021-06-24 21.06.46.jpg

I have no idea what happened with your previous account requests. Sorry for the delay, on the road and only looking at things when I’ve stopped for caffeine.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s something Justin would probably know.

My guess is no.

Nope, never really even anything close to that.

Even with PDX there's probably not going to be more than a 20ish degree difference with BLI in a summer heatwave. August 2017 was the biggest that I can remember with PDX hitting 105 and BLI only getting to 83.

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New blog post from Mark. He mentioned the IBM Graf model. Looks like it does well during the warm season.

 

"Check out the fresh 00z IBM Graf model, which handles warm season temperatures well. 108 Saturday, then around 114-115 Sunday! Just like the other models.

I’ve haven’t noticed this model “over-forecasting” heat in the last two warm seasons. Part of the reason we’re seeing such extreme temps (other than sun, offshore flow, and hot airmass overhead) appears to be the surfacing of that very dry subsiding air below the upper ridge. Notice the dewpoint drop both weekend afternoons. Sunday that would be relative humidity in the teens. The icing on the cake is the easterly wind Sunday. The GRAF is forecasting east wind to surface throughout the metro area that day (but not so much Saturday). It’ll be a “dry” 110 degree heat as they say…"

web_graf_text_00zpdx.png

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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One thing that's a bit concerning to me is the heights during the July 2009 heatwave "only" got to about 5900 to 5920, and 850s only made it to about 26C.  This time heights will be more in the 5950 to 5980 range with 850s peaking at least around 31C.  Placement and gradients were pretty similar to this event.  In short I think SEA could achieve 108 to 110 with this event.  Never thought I would see numbers like that around here.

The good news is the GFS slays the dragon more decisively during week two. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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