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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We were in Paris during that heat wave... the longevity of the heat was the problem.    Luckily for the west side of the Cascades... this is only about a 36-hour period of extreme heat from Sunday morning through Monday evening.

Very unlikely this will be a mass death event for Seattle/Portland.

🙂/😢

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A forum for the end of the world.

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I'm thinking we may need to put up the shade sail we have. It's 13x13x13' so that should be enough for us and one of the neighbors. if anything we can hang out in the basement. This heat wave will be fun.

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

93 degrees is low 90's, not mid.

😃

Great contribution as usual.

 

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14 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

It took PDX forever to crack 107. It would be crazy if it did it 3 straight days Sat/Sun/Mon. With each day setting a new all-time record high. 🤯

Not. Gonna. Happen.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Very unlikely this will be a mass death event for Seattle/Portland.

🙂/😢

No one called for a “mass death” event. But there are a lot of older people without AC or just people in general who aren’t really fathoming what we are about to see. It is what it is. Hope it doesn’t turn out too bad.

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Not sure about that. That was a fairly average to coolish summer by 1800s standards. Fort Vancouver had one single day in the 90s and a whopping 7 days of 85+ that year. Even by 1860s standards that was a mild one....

And if anyone was wondering, the summer of 1862 was brutally cold here following our ice age winter. Fort Vancouver had a total of five days of 80+, with a max of 84 for the whole year.

I think our climate has changed a bit....

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

No one called for a “mass death” event. But there are a lot of older people without AC or just people in general who aren’t really fathoming what we are about to see. It is what it is. Hope it doesn’t turn out too bad.

Obviously, only the sick-minded would hope for the worst.

The good news is even worst case scenarios will not be remotely close to the 2003 Euro heatwave. For better or worse, AC is much more widespread in the PNW than it was in western Europe then.

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

35° is the new low 30's with heavy snow temp.

One could make the argument I suppose that 90, 91, 92 are low 90’s while 93, 94, 95, 96 are mid 90’s and 97, 98, 99 are upper 90’s. Maybe start a poll!

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Obviously, only the sick-minded would hope for the worst.

The good news is even worst case scenarios will not be remotely close to the 2003 Euro heatwave. For better or worse, AC is much more widespread in the PNW than it was in western Europe then.

The national news keeps saying nobody in the NW has air conditioning. Air conditioning is widespread in Eastern Washington. I wouldn't dare live in Kennewick without air conditioning. The national news just tends to be ignorant about NW geography.

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2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

One could make the argument I suppose that 90, 91, 92 are low 90’s while 93, 94, 95, 96 are mid 90’s and 97, 98, 99 are upper 90’s. Maybe start a poll!

Yeah... I did not even think about it.   And don't care.

The entire post was about a map 10 days out and I was making a joke about 90-degree temps being chilly.  But Mr. Literal here is the life of the party as usual.   😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Deweydog said:

One could make the argument I suppose that 90, 91, 92 are low 90’s while 93, 94, 95, 96 are mid 90’s and 97, 98, 99 are upper 90’s. Maybe start a poll!

93.3333 would represent the start of the middle third between 90 and 100.

So 93.1 is safely low 90s but 93.4 is quite obviously mid 90s.

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Just now, Snowdrift said:

The national news keeps saying nobody in the NW has air conditioning. Air conditioning is widespread in Eastern Washington. I wouldn't dare live in Kennewick without air conditioning. The national news just tends to be ignorant about NW geography.

They’re using TIMcific Northwest logic. 😉

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

93.3333 would represent the start of the middle third between 90 and 100.

So 93.1 is safely low 90s but 93.4 is quite obviously mid 90s.

I studied the map for an hour and used high resolution software to determine the 93 was actually 93.4 rounded down.    So after consultation with several linguists... I decided to pull the trigger and go with "mid 90s" for my light-hearted joke about the map.   

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I studied the map for an hour and used high resolution software to determine the 93 was actually 93.4 rounded down.    So after consultation with several linguists... I decided to pull the trigger and go with "mid 90s" for my light-hearted joke about the map.   

Were they cunning linguists???

Heyo!!!

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I studied the map for an hour and used high resolution software to determine the 93 was actually 93.4 rounded down.    So after consultation with several linguists... I decided to pull the trigger and go with "mid 90s" for my light-hearted joke about the map.   

Definitely makes sense to aim a little bit higher, given the trends.

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A decent 4th on this run... not ridiculously hot.    Although that is still pretty bad in western OR.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5443200.png

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The 00Z ECMWF at 240 hours does not look like its going to meaningfully cool down any time soon.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5443200.png

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FWIW... the 00Z GEFS keeps it warm right through day 16.    

Here is the 11-16 day mean... sort of strange looking though.   As if there is a force field over the ocean preventing cold air from entering the PNW. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5961600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 00Z GEFS keeps it warm right through day 16.    

Here is the 11-16 day mean... sort of strange looking though.   As if there is a force field over the ocean preventing cold air from entering the PNW. 

 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-5961600.png

Come on blue blob!

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A decent 4th on this run... not ridiculously hot.    Although that is still pretty bad in western OR.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-5443200.png

That’s gonna be 100F by next Sun…

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Would it make you hard?

I apologize. I won't post anymore.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That’s gonna be 100F by next Sun…

I sure hope not... but it appears that the 00Z EPS has an even stronger warm signal for the holiday weekend than the 12Z run.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5313600.png

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Starting to think there could be quite a few deaths throughout the region. 

Was thinking the same. Mid/upper 100s with little relief at night will put the hurt on those without A/C.

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15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I sure hope not... but it appears that the 00Z EPS has an even stronger warm signal for the holiday weekend than the 12Z run.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-5313600.png

Like I said, I didn't want to be right, but this is just going to be a nightmare of a summer. The patterns have been so consistently warmer and drier in this area for months and now years. It was only a matter of time before these problems migrated north gradually.

 

It's like an entirely different state now compared to when I was in college. I remember nights in the summer at the frat house and it would...rain. And be about 77F most days for a high.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Outpost54 said:

Granted, it was a longer lasting event than this one, but 70,000 people died in the 2003 European heat wave, where most places didn't go any higher than 105°.

I really am starting to worry that we are about to have something truly horrific happen here. A lot of people don't seem to be taking it seriously at all, either.

People don't seem to realize how dangerous these kinds of temperatures are without air conditioning or any significant cool off period overnight. I keep seeing people in Facebook talking about their BBQ plans this weekend or saying how they will just "open the windows" over night and it will be fine. Yikes.

Heat exhaustion can hit you fast even if you’re relatively healthy. We had weeklong power outages in 2010 and 2012 from severe weather, both in the middle of long duration heatwaves. It was..rough. A lot of it is sleep deprivation..warm low temps are the killer.

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24 minutes ago, Phil said:

Was thinking the same. Mid/upper 100s with little relief at night will put the hurt on those without A/C.

Cooling at night is the key. Today it was in the 90s, and right now it's already dropped into the 60s. 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The 00Z ECMWF at 240 hours does not look like its going to meaningfully cool down any time soon.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5443200.png

That appendage out in the NPAC would crash the heat party, verbatim.

End of the Euro run probably feeding back a bit in the MC anyway.

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3 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

On the bright side, at least we don't have to deal with high dewpoints. Swamp coolers are effective. 

Ironic name, since “swamp coolers” aren’t effective in swamps. 

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