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June 2021 Pacific Northwest Obs


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12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

FedEx Ground says my a/c should be here by tomorrow evening. That’s at the bleeding early edge of the initial delivery window. If ever there was a time to appreciate an order arriving on the early side…

No such luck here. Manning through this thing with 3 fans on full blast, and "optional" clothing. And maybe a cold shower or seventeen.

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https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314
 

I’m dropping this Scientific paper link here as I believe it will benefit more here than anywhere.  

It discusses how we are in a 1200 yr drought/heatwave.  

This hasn’t been documented to this extreme since 800 AD.  This pattern is likely what destroyed the Aztecs too. 

  • Sun 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No such luck here. Manning through this thing with 3 fans on full blast, and "optional" clothing. And maybe a cold shower or seventeen.

Put a sprinkler on the roof.  Or in front of a door and pull air through that door into house. 

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No such luck here. Manning through this thing with 3 fans on full blast, and "optional" clothing. And maybe a cold shower or seventeen.

I was thinking that if people have a car with A/C they could go drive around every couple hours with the A/C blasting just to get a break.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking that if people have a car with A/C they could go drive around every couple hours just to get a break.

My roommate's car has some. Though it's a dinky car so he might not want to run it in the hot weather. Will try convincing!

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45 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently 56 degrees…Probably the last time we see 50’s for a while. 

Guessing the 50s will be back for you by Tuesday or Wednesday night... so only a few days.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

My roommate's car has some. Though it's a dinky car so he might not want to run it in the hot weather. Will try convincing!

Just getting a short break every couple hours will help immensely.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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50 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Models are all over the place as to how hot it will be at KBLI.

ecmwf-deterministic-KBLI-daily_tmin_tmax-4600800.thumb.png.414e127e69fb0e7a067e90e977562e26.pngecmwf-ensemble-KBLI-daily_tmin_tmax-4579200.thumb.png.e6cc51c804c5a12b6a592491b60fdb7e.pnggfs-deterministic-KBLI-daily_tmin_tmax-4600800.thumb.png.dc98261eca4796099655fdc442e668a4.pnggfs-ensemble-all-KBLI-daily_tmin_tmax-4600800.thumb.png.ecacd3b68b381eba4962b6616250dfb7.png

BLI is so tough to predict since its only a few hundred feet from the water.   Even the slightest change in the breeze has huge implications.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 06Z GFS was completely different... and way cooler for next weekend and beyond.   Totally different pattern evolution. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was thinking that if people have a car with A/C they could go drive around every couple hours with the A/C blasting just to get a break.

My parents owned a small gas station and grocery store when me and my brother were kids and we'd go hang out in the beer cooler. My dad kept it 36 degrees. Liked cold beer! But wow it felt amazing on a hot day.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

BLI is so tough to predict since its only a few hundred feet from the water.   Even the slightest change in the breeze has huge implications.

Bingo! And the official forecasts are not acknowledging this, but are instead all on the warm end of the various model runs. I have posted something about this to the local Bellingham Reddit group, telling people that extreme heat is nowhere near the lock here that it looks to be further south.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Bribing people with food helped get invites this weekend to houses with AC.

I’m in a condo and if my a/c does not arrive as currently scheduled tomorrow afternoon, will bribe my way into setting up a tent in a friend’s backyard. I did this once in Portland during a nasty heat wave. Quite a bit better than sweating it out all night in an upper-floor unit.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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I slept through the sunrise this morning but a beautiful Sunset last night here on the white river. 

A40C6E5F-763B-4EBC-8FCA-4A3E53489BFF.jpeg

C037DDBF-4C05-48DF-B006-FBB9041EB92C.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-0.00‚ÄĚ

Warm season rainfall-5.26‚ÄĚ

+80s-26

+85s-9

+90s-3

+100s-2

Highest temp-106

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I’m in a condo and if my a/c does not arrive as currently scheduled tomorrow afternoon, will bribe my way into setting up a tent in a friend’s backyard. I did this once in Portland during a nasty heat wave. Quite a bit better than sweating it out all night in an upper-floor unit.

Funny, I offered the tent idea to the kids and they thought I was crazy. To me it sounded like a perfect way to get a decent night sleep.

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The 6z GFS shows lows dropping into the 40s later in the run.  That would feel downright cold after what's coming.  Monday looks downright ridiculous, but a significant marine push will plow in here Monday evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2020-21 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 7.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 5

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 23

Lows 32 or below = 55

Highs 32 or below = 2

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 5

 

 

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10 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Funny, I offered the tent idea to the kids and they thought I was crazy. To me it sounded like a perfect way to get a decent night sleep.

I can’t understand why someone would choose to stay cooped up in a sweatbox of a house all night when it’s much cooler outside. Maybe your kids will change their minds when they experience how uncomfortable the house is.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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06Z GFS shows WA in the dry slot again over the next 16 days... while from the Rockies eastward there is copious rain.    No wonder it stays so lush green over there all summer.

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-5983200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And the 06Z GFS for PDX... unbelievable.   120. 

And then finds a way to randomly get back up to what will be the old (and very outdated) all-time high temp later in the run.¬†¬†ūü§®

gfs-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4600800.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

100% of the days well above normal. We might go an entire month with every single day above normal when this is all said and done. The opposite is impossible to imagine.

That did happen at SEA in February and the first part of March in 2019.   Actually longer than a month.   There was not one single day above normal from February 3rd through March 13th... a span of 39 days.    And that was using the old (and colder) climate averages!

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That did happen at SEA in February and the first part of March in 2019.   Actually longer than a month.   There was not one single day above normal from February 3rd through March 13th... a span of 39 days.    And that was using the old (and colder) climate averages!

Wow. Impressive. I bet the anomaly was nowhere remotely close to this one though. If you take the 6z GFS at face value, the average high temp is about 17 degrees above normal over the course of 16 days. Absolutely incredible. 

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9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

And the 06Z GFS for PDX... unbelievable.   120. 

And then finds a way to randomly get back up to what will be the old (and very outdated) all-time high temp later in the run.¬†¬†ūü§®

gfs-deterministic-KPDX-daily_tmin_tmax-4600800.png

That is some rapid cooling in Portland after 2pm.

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6 hours ago, Phil said:

Heat exhaustion can hit you fast even if you’re relatively healthy. We had weeklong power outages in 2010 and 2012 from severe weather, both in the middle of long duration heatwaves. It was..rough. A lot of it is sleep deprivation..warm low temps are the killer.

In June 2012, DEN had four consecutive 100+ days, including a 104. I didn't have AC at the time and it wasn't fun...but fans actually made a huge difference.

Lows were in the upper 60s with that, but it stayed above 80 until well after midnight.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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20 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Wow. Impressive. I bet the anomaly was nowhere remotely close to this one though. If you take the 6z GFS at face value, the average high temp is about 17 degrees above normal over the course of 16 days. Absolutely incredible. 

February 2019 was 6 to 8 degrees below normal for most of the Puget Sound region.

I doubt either June or July this year will be that much above normal.

A forum for the end of the world.

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The 12z ICON keeps the cool air south of Portland through the hottest part of the day. Up to 117.

It's looking more and more like Monday is going to be the hottest day for the Portland metro area north. And then a 40-50 degree drop in a matter of hours when the onshore flow hits. 

My prediction for PDX...

Saturday: 106

Sunday: 113

Monday: 116

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3 hours ago, Jesse said:

Definitely a stunning sunrise this morning. Looked like the sky was on fire. ūüĒ• A sign of things to come??

A07A4377-0D24-4DA0-A124-3C769E9ECAE9.thumb.jpeg.acc1ca2cdff16a3c82d9b24f81de6f44.jpeg

Red sky in the morning..

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4 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

New GFS running warmer through Saturday.

Looks a little closer with the marine push on Monday morning though compared to the 00Z run.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314
 

I’m dropping this Scientific paper link here as I believe it will benefit more here than anywhere.  

It discusses how we are in a 1200 yr drought/heatwave.  

This hasn’t been documented to this extreme since 800 AD.  This pattern is likely what destroyed the Aztecs too. 

The vast majority of proxy data I’m aware of clearly indicates the period from 900-1350AD was significantly drier and warmer across the western and central US than today. At the very least, more persistently so. Tim would have loved it.

There was significant dune mobilization across west-central North America during that time period, the evidence of which is evident via the naked eye to this day. Nothing even remotely similar to that has happened yet.

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Monday morning at 8 a.m. and its already in the 90s in Seattle... but relief is in sight.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f-4896000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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