February 2014 in the PNW

[stuffradio]

My dog ate the groundhogs, and predicted we will get rain!

[vck]

D**n Woodchucks!

[snow_wizard]

The WRF suggests highs in the low to mid 20s for Seattle on Wednesday. That is bloody cold!

[Phil]

The WRF suggests highs in the low to mid 20s for Seattle on Wednesday. That is bloody cold!

Honestly not trolling here...but since when do temps in the low to mid 20's qualify as "bloody cold"? I could be comfortable in that wearing a long sleeved T-shirt.

[HighlandExperience]

Honestly not trolling here...but since when do temps in the low to mid 20's qualify as "bloody cold"? I could be comfortable in that wearing a long sleeved T-shirt.

For most people that is cold.

[luterra]

Bloody cold for us, for February.  Just like lows in the upper 30s would be bloody cold in June...

 

He who states that a troll he is not, a troll may be.

[Phil]

For most people that is cold.

Forget I ever made that comment.

 

Just by the way Jim worded it, I thought he forgot to put the minus sign before the 20.

[Skagit Weather]

Welcome to a new month where every member gets buried under feet of snow!

Or models and members crash and burn left and right as Seattle fails to drop below freezing.

[Phil]

He who states that a troll he is not, a troll may be.

I shouldn't have even brought it up. It's 3AM and I'm in the hospital (kid has severe bronchitis), so I'm probably not thinking with a clear head.

[BLI snowman]

The WRF suggests highs in the low to mid 20s for Seattle on Wednesday. That is bloody cold!

 

Not gonna happen.

 

This is a lot like December with the direction of the cold and low level outflow. The Fraser River stuff isn't going to be exceptional with it. Not like February 1956 or something.

 

It's a little far out, but either way I think that highs below 29-30 would be a major accomplishment with this for PDX and especially for SEA. Even then a high of 29 would be remarkable, considering that neither station has had a high that cold this late in the season since PDX did it in March 1960.  

[BLI snowman]

Honestly not trolling here...but since when do temps in the low to mid 20's qualify as "bloody cold"? I could be comfortable in that wearing a long sleeved T-shirt.

 

 

Silly post. That's like me telling someone in the Sahara Desert that .10" of rain isn't a big deal. 

[paulb/eugene]

6z gfs looks cold

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS is colder than the 00z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

510 Thickness almost to PDX at hour 153.

[Snow]

06z GFS huge overrunning event from at least Portland north next weekend.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_namer_192_1000_500_thick.gif

[FroYoBro]

So far the gfs runs are showing a fairly fast warmup with a system to our NW. But we would still get some snow before it changed to rain.  

[BLI snowman]

That's just an ungodly amount of precip on the long range 06z. Wettest run ever?

[weatherfan2012]

I shouldn't have even brought it up. It's 3AM and I'm in the hospital (kid has severe bronchitis), so I'm probably not thinking with a clear head.

hope he feels better soon phil.sorry to here that.

[Timmy]

06z is completely dry for pdx through the res change...

[TT-SEA]

The WRF suggests highs in the low to mid 20s for Seattle on Wednesday. That is bloody cold!

 

Won't happen... you fell for this in December as well.     Bare ground and February sunshine to boot.   

 

(Side note.... my family in MN an WI would literally declare spring if they could sustain a temperature in the 20s)    

[TT-SEA]

Just following up on what we thought was an incredible snow event for the lowlands next weekend... the 00Z WRF has the transition happening already by Saturday morning and the totals are not that crazy.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/h3dzf1ao7/snow1.png

 

 

Already scouring the cold air by 4 a.m. on Saturday:

 

http://s27.postimg.org/djb1sdt83/snow2.png

 

 

The flow is SW... not offshore... and that kills the snow chances quickly.     ECMWF showed this as well.    

[Jesse]

The majority of the 06z ensembles are still colder than the operational. Becoming pretty clear this has the potential to be an historic event from a cold perspective.

 

Happy February!

[Jesse]

Just following up on what we thought was an incredible snow event for the lowlands next weekend... the 00Z WRF has the transition happening already by Saturday morning and the totals are not that crazy.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/h3dzf1ao7/snow1.png

 

 

Already scouring the cold air by 4 a.m. on Saturday:

 

http://s27.postimg.org/djb1sdt83/snow2.png

 

 

The flow is SW... not offshore... and that kills the snow chances quickly. ECMWF showed this as well.

Looks pretty good for out here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks pretty good for out here.

 

Yes... almost certain this event has to favor your area.

 

Seattle is likely going into this snowless and will probably come out like it did in December.    Fast and messy.

[Jesse]

Yes... almost certain this event has to favor your area.

 

Seattle is likely going into this snowless and will probably come out like it did in December.    Fast and messy.

 

I don't understand why you're focusing on the end of the event right now anyway. Lots of details that will likely change. There is a ton of ensemble spread starting the 9th.

[Jesse]

Not gonna happen.

 

This is a lot like December with the direction of the cold and low level outflow. The Fraser River stuff isn't going to be exceptional with it. Not like February 1956 or something.

 

It's a little far out, but either way I think that highs below 29-30 would be a major accomplishment with this for PDX and especially for SEA. Even then a high of 29 would be remarkable, considering that neither station has had a high that cold this late in the season since PDX did it in March 1960.  

 

PDX saw a high in the teens on 2/3/89. This cold wave looks like it will bottom out on 2/6/14. Do three days really make that big of a difference with regard to sun angle?

 

Obviously February '89 was colder than this will be, but 850s around -15c and raging outflow would be able to keep PDX below 29 pretty handily, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

I don't understand why you're focusing on the end of the event right now anyway. Lots of details that will likely change. There is a ton of ensemble spread starting the 9th.

 

 

Unfortunately... the rest is going to be pretty boring for most people.   I don't honestly care that much about -14C or -18C or whatever if its sunny and the ground is bare.   It looks fairly pleasant (i.e. dry and sunny) with no hassles during the cold event.     The next exciting thing is the transition event.     

[TT-SEA]

PDX saw a high in the teens on 2/3/89. This cold wave looks like it will bottom out on 2/6/14. Do three days really make that big of a difference with regard to sun angle?

 

Obviously February '89 was colder than this will be, but 850s around -15c and raging outflow would be able to keep PDX below 29 pretty handily.

 

Not sure about down there... but there was a foot of snow on the ground up here.   That is what makes all the difference in the world with temperatures.

[Utrex]

Wow that's a lot…

[Jesse]

I think the infatuation with February 5th as a cutoff for major cold in the western lowlands has more to do with of a quirk of climatological history than anything. It just so happens that PDX and SEA both have major cold waves dominating their records up to 2/5 (Early Feb 1950 and Feb 1989).

 

Nothing really exciting has happened in the time frame from 2/5 to 2/14 in the last 70+ years. So PDX's and SEA's records show a huge, inflated rise in record lows after 2/5.

 

After this event, our records in the 2/1 to 2/10 period may be a lot more uniform looking. That huge post 2/5 rise will be mitigated quite a bit, in a way that better reflects our climatological capabilities for the first half of February as a whole.

[Jesse]

Not sure about down there... but there was a foot of snow on the ground up here.   That is what makes all the difference in the world with temperatures.

 

Justin would know a lot better than I, but I think PDX didn't have a ton of snow on the ground in February '89. They fared better down the valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 1899 was also another major cold wave before February 5th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 2nd half of the GFS shows nearly 14" of rain for SLE! 

 

That is an outlier among the ensembles. Just as the 06z was an outlier on the warm side.

[Jesse]

February 1899 was also another major cold wave before February 5th.

 

Yup. I am talking about the period of record for PDX and SEA, though.

[Jesse]

Going on a hike today. Hope the models keep up the awesomeness!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I ended up with 0.40" of rain yesterday. 

 

28 degrees this morning under partly cloudy skies. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX and SLE were essentially average for January. Eugene ran a -1.0 departure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

BTW everyone ripped me for saying January would be lackluster. I finished 3rd in the PDX forecast contest for January. Guess I wasn't so off base after all. Willing to put my money where my mouth was.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For what its worth the 12z is slightly colder at hour 45! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

February 1956 was pretty good up here.

 

Snow cover all, but two days that month.

 

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

[TT-SEA]

February 1956 was pretty good up here.

 

Snow cover all, but two days that month.

 

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

 

 

Those measurements are so strange.     7.99 inches of snow on the ground??     

 

How did you get that nice monthly view??   All I can get there are CSV and EXCEL files in an ugly format.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Those measurements are so strange.     7.99 inches of snow on the ground??     

 

How did you get that nice monthly view??   All I can get there are CSV and EXCEL files in an ugly format.

 

Yeah, Idk why all the measurements are like with the Utah State data. 

 

I get that monthly view on the Utah State climate site.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through hour 90 the 12z is slightly faster with the cold air. I don't know that it is going to be any colder than previous runs though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very subtle differences through hour 117, but the differences that exist are slightly faster and colder.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Timing looks sped up a little on everything including overrunning. The overrunning looks a bit further south though on the 12z.

[luvssnow_seattle]

Timing looks sped up a little on everything including overrunning. The overrunning looks a bit further south though on the 12z.

The further south that overrunning can go the better. Better chance for us to stay colder longer.

[FroYoBro]

The 12z definitely looks better for the overrunning event. Northern Washington stays snow for quite a while on this run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z shows a huge snow storm for PDX. HR 180-186 PDX-DLS of at least 10mb with copious moisture. I also notice the low offshore hasn't progressed north much if any, yet. Hmmm....

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian shows the undercut happening WAY south...  like through California.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

[Gradient Keeper]

12Z Canadian shows the undercut happening WAY south...  like through California.

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

If so, we stay way colder for much longer....