February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

Hopefully, seems like we are close to something decent up this way for the middle of next week.

 

Heck, I am still holding out hope for Sunday for my location, could be a close call for a quick hit of heavy snow before it changes to rain.

I think you're good for Sunday morning. Next week we could finally see something decent.

[brody]

We shall see. I hope you're right.

 

:)

 

:)

 

Not nearly enough smiley's

[TheBigOne]

I forgot to include according to the Statesman Journal downtown Silverton got 4 and 1/2 inches of snow during this event.   From  what other reports in the area it looks like we between Salem and Silverton got dry slotted.   

 

It seems since the 1980s that it's hard to get widespread snow where everybody gets nearly equal amounts. Now we have huge distinctions between Eugene/Portland and Seattle and the distinctions are becoming ever so more extreme. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

This is spot on. We've seen ridging 80% of the winter.

 

We need a prolonged cool, stormy pattern.

I thought we were going into one starting next week. Now it looks like ridging will move directly overhead after this shot. Big let down.

 

We need a prolonged stormy pattern that brings rain and mountain snow to the entire west coast, including Socal. There has not been one decent storm in my area that has delivered .5" or above this entire season!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I forgot to include according to the Statesman Journal downtown Silverton got 4 and 1/2 inches of snow during this event.   From  what other reports in the area it looks like we between Salem and Silverton got dry slotted.   

 

It seems since the 1980s that it's hard to get widespread snow where everybody gets nearly equal amounts. Now we have huge distinctions between Eugene/Portland and Seattle and the distinctions are becoming ever so more extreme. 

 

My brother lives between Silverton and Mt. Angel. He got 8.5" with this event.

[Jesse]

Looks like the trend of watering down next week's trough continues on the 06z. The ensemble mean is even warmer than the operational.

 

Appears pretty ridgy after that. Although the ensemble isn't quite as extreme.

[TT-SEA]

No radar... absolutely no 12Z models.   

 

Wonderful.

 

Complete black-out here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z NAM trickling in now just 2 hours late.

[50shadesofvan]

Hi all,

 

I'm trying something a bit different on my blog today, and doing live updates throughout the day as needed. I think at least today's storm will have more of an impact north of the border, but tracks/intensity can change.

 

Live Updates: http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/2/15/saturday-west-coast-wind-storm-live-updates

[GHweatherChris]

No radar... absolutely no 12Z models.   

 

Wonderful.

 

Complete black-out here.

Coastal radar is working at least.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LGX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[TT-SEA]

Coastal radar is working at least.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LGX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

 

SEA radar just came back up.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The fun starts in a few hours!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up almost half an inch of rain already here this morning.

[TT-SEA]

The fun starts in a few hours!

 

Looks like a run-of-the-mill front on the 12Z WRF for later today.    Some rain... some wind.    Its already happened about 5 times this week alone.  

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z continues the water down trend...

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 12z continues the water down trend...

Yeah looks like a standard trough now.

[Jesse]

Looks like a run-of-the-mill front on the 12Z WRF for later today. Some rain... some wind. Its already happened about 5 times this week alone.

:) :) :) :)

[Jesse]

The 12z continues the water down trend...

Called it. Yawn...

 

I am incredibly happy for the early February event we had. Really can't complain. It would have been awesome to score another significant cold event before month's end, though.

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like a run-of-the-mill front on the 12Z WRF for later today.    Some rain... some wind.    Its already happened about 5 times this week alone.  

Yep, surprising that some are excited about the same thing.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Looks like a run-of-the-mill front on the 12Z WRF for later today.    Some rain... some wind.    Its already happened about 5 times this week alone.  

I knew you would take the opportunity to undermine what others like (perhaps, according to you, me only based on my recall of your comments last night).  At least you didn't disappoint.  Your passive-aggressiveness on this forum is second to none!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doesn't really even look like there will be much snow at my location this week.

[Jesse]

At least the ridging is somewhat short lived on the 12z.

[TT-SEA]

Called it. Yawn...

 

I am incredibly happy for the early February event we had. Really can't complain. It would have been awesome to score another significant cold event before month's end, though.

Not over yet... could still trend west. Happened last time at 3 days out

[TT-SEA]

I knew you would take the opportunity to undermine what others like (perhaps, according to you, me only based on my recall of your comments last night). At least you didn't disappoint. Your passive-aggressiveness on this forum is second to none!

We should not look at the WRF then.  This is the 6th front this week... all of them about the same strength.   

[Jesse]

Not over yet... could still trend west. Happened last time at 3 days out

True. The Euro has been showing a strong eastward trend too, though.

[TT-SEA]

True. The Euro has been showing a strong eastward trend too, though.

 

All the models showed that last time and then it shifted west in the last few days.   This will end up better than what is shown now.

[epiceast]

All the models showed that last time and then it shifted west in the last few days.   This will end up better than what is shown now.

Is west or east better here? Seems like the trough moves fairly quickly(4-5) days, so it won't matter either way.

[Jesse]

Is west or east better here? Seems like the trough moves fairly quickly(4-5) days, so it won't matter either way.

That's what I'm seeing. Seems fairly progressive regardless.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Eugene is going to easily hit the 6" mark for precip on the month today. They really needed it too.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF is fabulous for lowland snow for most of Western WA.  At one point a low tracks from the south central WA coast and right across SW WA.  Perfect for snow in my area.  0z and 12z WRF and ECMWF snowfall maps look very promising.  I will be happy if this thing can verify at least as good as what the 12z shows.

 

Looking at the old records it's apparent we used to get way more snowfall in non Arctic events than has been the case in recent years (past 30 yrs +).  I would love to see this verify.

[snow_wizard]

That's what I'm seeing. Seems fairly progressive regardless.

 

Still pretty decent though.

[snow_wizard]

Called it. Yawn...

 

I am incredibly happy for the early February event we had. Really can't complain. It would have been awesome to score another significant cold event before month's end, though.

 

A little bit early to write it off considering how horribly the models handled the last cold wave in the days leading up to it.  It does appear WA (Olympia northward) has a better shot at being the winner with this though.

[snow_wizard]

Yet another GFS run that show Arctic air in early March.  Something to keep an eye considering many runs have had something like that at the end in recent days.

[snow_wizard]

This evening could get interesting with the lifted index dropping to around zero and a nice cold pool behind the front. This could easily produce a fairly vigorous squall near the back edge of the front with gusty winds and hail. This certainly looks more interesting that the other fronts this week due to the cold air entering the region.

 

Also worth noting some places could flirt with some wet snow tomorrow morning. A front will quickly overrun the resident cold air mass.

[KMartin]

This evening could get interesting with the lifted index dropping to around zero and a nice cold pool behind the front. This could easily produce a fairly vigorous squall near the back edge of the front with gusty winds and hail. This certainly looks more interesting that the other fronts this week due to the cold air entering the region.

 

Also worth noting some places could flirt with some wet snow tomorrow morning. A front will quickly overrun the resident cold air mass.

Def along my thoughts last night here - http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/02/15/three-wind-storms-to-affect-the-pacific-northwest-starting-saturday-as-atmospheric-river-hits/

[Jesse]

12z Euro is definitely an improvement over the last few runs.

[KMartin]

I labeled the trough axis with the red line ... Also the pink box would be the location of the 'sweep' of upper divergence on this axis ... which is where the better thunderstorm dynamics would be if there was such a thing as a 'thunderstorm watch box' up there.  I know I have them for down here but that's about the box location for later on -

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/floaters/forum14.jpg

[Weather101]

We could see 60 mph winds today! Let the storm begin !

[KMartin]

We could see 60 mph winds today! Let the storm begin !

My question is ... with the wind storms in the PAC NW and a squall-line with thunderstorms moving through ... wouldn't that count as a severe thunderstorm for those that get it... probably mainly coast of WA and NW OR where storms will be.

[umadbro]

Where do you get thunderstorms from let alone severe?