February 2014 in the PNW

[snow maniac]

Not when there is a low. Your thinking of onshore flow. This is different youngster.

_{you mean soon to be grandpa.}  

[GHweatherChris]

According to new GFS precip type chart south sound is rain at hour 90, there is a bit of ice at the coast and hour 96 is where we torch

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_090_precip_p60.gifThis should be mostly snow form Seattle and to the north..

This map does not specifically show Ice on the coast or snow from Seattle north.

[GHweatherChris]

Zooming in it looks like the low will travel right through Olympia.

20 miles south longitude wise and I will be in business.

[The Swamp]

20 miles south longitude wise and I will be in business.

What is your location?  GH = Gig Harbor

[Parksvillewx]

WRF is out to 48 hrs...

 

[brody]

WRF is out to 48 hrs...

 

wa_snow24.48.0000.gif

Pathetic

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like the most recent WRF is dryer overall, but still has respectable snow totals. Unfortunately it does tend to overdo precipitation, so I guess we will just have to wait and see.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Pathetic

This is a evolving system, meaning, as the low moves the precip will changeover to snow accordingly.

 

The WRF has consistently showed nothing here till the tail end of the low moving south.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

This map does not specifically show Ice on the coast or snow from Seattle north.

 

FWIW, there is a new feature on the GFS showing dominant precipitation type.  I have no idea if it is accurate, especially for the northwest, but they just implemented this recently

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140221%2000%20UTC&param=200_wnd_ht%2C500_vort_ht%2C1000_500_thick%2C850_temp_ht&fourpan=yes&imageSize=&ps=modelGuidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20140221%2000%20UTC&param=dom_precip_type&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

 

EDIT:  not sure if the link works right, but I copied and pasted it from the NCEP site.  Just pick "Dominant precipitation type" from the parameters instead of 850 temps, or whatever

[GHweatherChris]

Looks like the most recent WRF is dryer overall, but still has respectable snow totals. Unfortunately it does tend to overdo precipitation, so I guess we will just have to wait and see.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

You mean under do precip.

 

It didn't show anything more than a trace here a couple weeks ago and I got 3.5 inches.

[Skagit Weather]

You mean under do precip.

 

It didn't show anything more than a trace here a couple weeks ago and I got 3.5 inches.

That is because it had the track completely wrong, but usually the precipitation totals in the center of the plume of moisture are forecast higher than what actually falls. It frequently forecasts very heavy rain in the lowlands of 2+ inches and most of the time totals are less than forecast. If this time it is underdoing the precipitation totals I will be extremely happy, but usually I expect about half to 2/3 of the snow that it forecasts.

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM and GFS show precip type being an issue for everyone south of Bellingham. Certainly a good bet that rain interferes with it once you get down to Everett, and south of Seattle should be almost all rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Better

[Skagit Weather]

Of course on this, almost everybody in W. WA gets snow.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/ww_snow72.84.0000.gif

 

Edit: I guess it is so nice you get to see it twice.

[GHweatherChris]

Better

Definitely, it is a pattern that is shown to have snow in all areas but at completely different times.

 

Total evolution possible for the region.

 

North gets pounded.

Central sound might get pounded, but will see snow for sure.

Olympia south (including me) nothing to 3 inches.  Fun weather event to track for sure.

 

I say I do not see flakes(if at all) til sometime Sunday) overnight.  However this system is ripe to overachieve.   

[brody]

New GFS and Canadian show significant snow north of Everett pretty much all weekend Late Sat through Sunday 

[50shadesofvan]

And...just for kicks...GEM throws this stronger surface low approaching the coast for late Sunday night....tough to tell where R/S line is.

[HighlandExperience]

Better

 

Ya I was about to say the same thing. The WRF earlier was not as good for the central sound. This is an improvement over earlier runs. 

[50shadesofvan]

*Picks Jaw off Floor*

 

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous GFS and WRF tonight. Even though it shows it taking a while to turn to snow between Seattle and Tacoma it still snows a decent amount. Precip could easily turn over faster for the East Puget Sound lowlands as the latest WRF shows winds remaining easterly for almost the entire event. An earlier turn over could bring several inches for everyone on this run. The all important 1300 contour on the 1000-850 thickness map goes south of Olympia at one point on the GFS during the period of significant precip. Very good news.

 

Nice to see the Canadian coming on board.

[TT-SEA]

 

 

*Picks Jaw off Floor*

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022100/west/cmc_snow_acc_west_17.png

 

 

 

Your images are not showing up.

[The Swamp]

Your images are not showing up.

Shows up fine for me. Scram! Get back to the pool and a Mai tai.

[HighlandExperience]

Your images are not showing up.

 

same here...

[catnip]

Your images are not showing up.

Ditto.

[snow_wizard]

Just think if this thing trends just a TENNY bit colder. That is all it would take for a widespread major snowfall.

[50shadesofvan]

Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone. 

 

[HighlandExperience]

Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone.

 

Looks nice. Do you have a higher Rez?

[epiceast]

GEM brings a  sub 1000 low for round 2 into the Olympics... I am guessing that's where we get buried.

[catnip]

Sorry for those who couldn't see the latest GEM snowfall. This might work for everyone.

 

Yup, that works.... Wow!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

Looks nice. Do you have a higher Rez?

That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be.

[HighlandExperience]

That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be.

 

Ya it is hard to tell how heavy the precip is from that map. But it looks to be close to 6 inches in the E. Puget Sound. 

[snow_wizard]

GEM brings a  sub 1000 low for round 2 into the Olympics... I am guessing that's where we get buried.

The WRF agrees. It brings the surface low inland on a latitude JUST south of Seattle.

[GHweatherChris]

That's the best view they have from that model. Looks like the east Puget Sound lowlands do well. This is a case where the east wind will be our friend. It usually is if there is enough moisture to overcome the drying effect which the models agree there will be.

I think the offshore flow through the Chehalis Gap is why the models continue to show some snow here, I hope this whole thing shifts more south.

 

But, the north areas deserve a good dumping as well.

[BLI snowman]

Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all.

[GHweatherChris]

Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all.

This is looking like a wait until it starts evolving situation for sure.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Epic bust potential!

[bainbridgekid]

Operational GFS is still really dry here, not in sync with the WRF much at all.

It's hard to tell exactly with the low resolution, but it still looks like about 0.4" of QPF to me on the OP for Bellingham.

 

Most of that falls Saturday afternoon and evening though so it's hard to say whether it would be accumulating snow the whole time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WRF drunk?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/or_snow24.120.0000.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Epic bust potential!

Epic bust potential either way, amazing possibilities with this one.

[epiceast]

WRF drunk?

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/or_snow24.120.0000.gif

Respect for Gorge outflow!!!