February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

I don't care. Still like analyzing the situation in our down time. Not caring allows you to look at it more objectively.

 

All this discussion... and the 12Z ECMWF is going to come out very snowy. I can feel it.

Ok! Understandable ! Keep us updated

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The new wrf cut my snow totals in half from what it has been showing. Looking like only 6-8" now. I was surprised how far south the wrf is showing accumulating snow, seems kind of aggressive with pushing the cold south. Having said that, I am rooting for your area Jim, you want it more than anyone.

 

For some reason the raw 12Z GFS output shows a decent amount of precip over the Vancouver Island throughout Sunday while the 12Z WRF seems to show nothing. Not sure why that is, I thought the WRF essentially worked directly with the GFS output.

[TT-SEA]

Everything should switch over to rain on Sunday afternoon as another round of wet weather comes our way. It looks like Monday could be a bit soggy -- but drier conditions round out the middle of next week.

 

How can Komo say I'll switch over for you guys Sunday afternoon when NWS says for Seattle Sunday too Sunday is the best chance for legit snow? It could be just rain but it seems komo4 everyone hates snow there

 

 

That is based on the fact that many times all the hype leads to nothing at all in Seattle... so play conservative to avoid working everyone into a panic for nothing.   

[Jesse]

12z GFS showing a nice snow event for the Gorge Monday/Tuesday. It's been pretty consistent with 850s around -8c making it down to The Dalles and moisture moving in.

 

What an incredible way to cap the winter off. After that I will officially be ready to embrace spring.

[catnip]

For some reason the raw 12Z GFS output shows a decent amount of precip over the Vancouver Island throughout Sunday while the 12Z WRF seems to show nothing. Not sure why that is, I thought the WRF essentially worked directly with the GFS output.

I noticed that as well. 

[Weather101]

That is based on the fact that many times all the hype leads to nothing at all in Seattle... so play conservative to avoid working everyone into a panic for nothing.

You're posts are pretty good lately! You just say facts! Thanks for that

[TT-SEA]

Visible SEA satellite has a leafy look to the clouds developing to the north and west... indicates a developing and dynamic situation.

 

http://s30.postimg.org/lspb6uyz5/VIS1_SEA.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Canadian looking more like the GFS. Moisture extends further South than the 00z.

 

Precip through 10 PM Sunday:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022112/west/cmc_total_precip_west_12.png

 

And snow:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022112/west/cmc_snow_acc_west_12.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Here is my son enjoying this tourist trap yesterday.   Probably better to just stay home in the cold rain and not give them any new experiences.   

 

http://s7.postimg.org/60c9916kr/haw1.jpg

Your a good dad. We have taken my boy all over the country. Great memories there for you kids dude.

[westcoastexpat]

GFS Skew-T profiles are concerning for the Seattle area. Remarkably borderline up the entire air column. This snow is going to be very wet, very low ratios with this for areas that can sustain snowfall. Pesky low level dry layer is also going to cut moisture amounts, making matters worse for snow lovers.

[westcoastexpat]

Canadian looking more like the GFS. Moisture extends further South than the 00z.

 

Precip through 10 PM Sunday:

 

 

And snow:

 

 

Euro and GEM are on board for a Whatcom special. I'm excited.

[snow_wizard]

Canadian looking more like the GFS. Moisture extends further South than the 00z.

 

Precip through 10 PM Sunday:

 

 

And snow:

 

I wish they had a closer up view. It is hard to make out where the snowfall line is for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like it goes right to the water though. One thing for sure is it appears there will be a lot of moisture available this weekend. Greatly increases the evaporative cooling potential. There is also the possibility of some nice marine air / Arctic air (or at least chilly dry air) interactions that are notorious for causing locally enhanced precip rates the models often miss. That normally happens in the vicinity of outflow areas.

[catnip]

Canadian looking more like the GFS. Moisture extends further South than the 00z.

 

Precip through 10 PM Sunday:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022112/west/cmc_total_precip_west_12.png

 

And snow:

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022112/west/cmc_snow_acc_west_12.png

 

Not showing up for me for some reason?

[snow_wizard]

GFS Skew-T profiles are concerning for the Seattle area. Remarkably borderline up the entire air column. This snow is going to be very wet, very low ratios with this for areas that can sustain snowfall. Pesky low level dry layer is also going to cut moisture amounts, making matters worse for snow lovers.

I think the dry air will do nothing but help given the ample moisture that will be available. I live at 400 feet and away from the water so I have a better chance here. Thanks for your concern though.

[GHweatherChris]

What the hell is a Scholarly Met??

 

I would think maybe a Meteorologist that teaches??

[epiceast]

12z GFS/WRF is out to lunch... GEM holds the course for a nail biter for Seattle. Let's see what the Euro shows.

[Guest Monty67]

Not showing up for me for some reason?

Me either, I wish I new why.

 

I have been waiting for those maps, hopefully someone can help

[westcoastexpat]

I wish they had a closer up view. It is hard to make out where the snowfall line is for the East Puget Sound lowlands. Looks like it goes right to the water though. One thing for sure is it appears there will be a lot of moisture available this weekend. Greatly increases the evaporative cooling potential. There is also the possibility of some nice marine air / Arctic air (or at least chilly dry air) interactions that are notorious for causing locally enhanced precip rates the models often miss. That normally happens in the vicinity of outflow areas.

 

Keeps it as rain/sleet for Seattle. Non-accumulative.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Change "ZOOM:" to "NOAM" from the default "EST"

[epiceast]

Keeps it as rain/sleet for Seattle. Non-accumulative.

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

Change "ZOOM:" to "NOAM" from the default "EST"

Seems like a Skagit county snow line to me.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z Canadian looks very fun for Jesse: SN, PL, ZR special

[HighlandExperience]

12z GFS/WRF is out to lunch... GEM holds the course for a nail biter for Seattle. Let's see what the Euro shows.

 

Hope the EURO can save us. 

 

FYI TT the hills here in Issaquah have snow down to about the 1200 foot level. I am pretty sure it snowed at your place.

[westcoastexpat]

Seems like a Skagit county snow line to me.

 

I think Arlington should cash in also. I think ratios will be poor but I expect mostly snow there. South of Everett along the water there will be massive problems for sticking snows.

[GHweatherChris]

Scholarly Met??  Can anyone tell me what it means?

[HighlandExperience]

From NWS:

 

950AM UPDATE...THE 4KM UW WRFGFS IS IN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IT
SHOWS THE COOL AIR AND NORTHERLIES BEING OVERRUN LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GIVE MUCH OF
WESTERN WA SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

[HighlandExperience]

Scholarly Met??  Can anyone tell me what it means?

 

Means he is a student. 

[westcoastexpat]

Scholarly Met??  Can anyone tell me what it means?

 

Somebody with either a university degree in atmospheric science/meteorology or at least well into their degree program.

[50shadesofvan]

Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance. 

[bainbridgekid]

Euro looks pretty dry Seattle South through hour 60.

 

Lots of moisture for Skagit and Whatcom though. Close to a full inch of QPF for Bellingham. If that can all be snow . . .

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014022112/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_11.png

[HighlandExperience]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Somebody with either a university degree in atmospheric science/meteorology or at least well into their degree program.

Just because you have a degree or will have a degree in meteorology does not automatically mean your a meteorologist in any way though, unless its what you do for a living.

 

I have a friend with a degree in Law, but he owns his own business instead of using his degree.

But he doesn't  call himself a lawyer.

[MossMan]

According to NWS Seattle my area will be the "Snow line" for Saturday, going to be close! Reminds me a bit of Nov 2006 with the snow to rain line being just a few miles south of my area the day before the arctic front moved through and with the dynamics of that situation caused a major dump in my location...hmmm!!! Then again I have not looked at any models or even how this situation is shaping up. It will be nice to retire someday and just sit and model ride ALL DAY! Cant wait!

[westcoastexpat]

Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance. 

 

RIP SEA

 

50shadesofvan, just to let you know about WxBell maps, the snow totals incorporate all winter precip types (including sleet, freezing rain, and ice pellets) so the winter maps are poor during borderline events like this one.  Also, on another weather forum I post on, there have been issues with WxBell complaining about posting their maps as it is a pay site, so simply crop part of the image out and you should avoid the same fate.

[westcoastexpat]

Just because you have a degree or will have a degree in meteorology does not automatically mean your a meteorologist in any way though, unless its what you do for a living.

 

I have a friend with a degree in Law, but he owns his own business instead of using his degree.

But he doesn't  call himself a lawyer.

 

I totally agree.

 

Now I ask you, did I call myself a meteorologist? I simply answered your question. It is the first (and only time) I have mentioned my tag.

[GHweatherChris]

I totally agree.

 

Now I ask you, did I call myself a meteorologist? I simply answered your question. It is the first (and only time) I have mentioned my tag.

You have the tag, which I don't agree with.  Just my opinion.  And I didn't say you mentioned your tag.

 

A met = meteorologist.

[Guest Monty67]

Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance.

Thank you. Seems more likely than the WRF, I think the cold is going to have a hard time pushing as far south as it is showing.

[westcoastexpat]

You have the tag, which I don't agree with.  Just my opinion.  And I didn't say you mentioned your tag.

 

A met = meteorologist.

 

Bring it up with iFred if there is an issue. He gave it to me. No need to clog the forum up with administrative concerns. Take it to PM, please.

 

I have also interned with the federal government before in the meteorology department, FYI.

[Guest Monty67]

According to NWS Seattle my area will be the "Snow line" for Saturday, going to be close! Reminds me a bit of Nov 2006 with the snow to rain line being just a few miles south of my area the day before the arctic front moved through and with the dynamics of that situation caused a major dump in my location...hmmm!!! Then again I have not looked at any models or even how this situation is shaping up. It will be nice to retire someday and just sit and model ride ALL DAY! Cant wait!

I was thinking the same thing, but didn't want to jinx it. Seems like the artic air is a little less strong with this, but I am not sure as I didn't follow the models very closely back then.

[westcoastexpat]

I was thinking the same thing, but didn't want to jinx it. Seems like the artic air is a little less strong with this, but I am not sure as I didn't follow the models very closely back then.

 

The Canadian has been consistent with several runs now with Arlington being the cut off of accumulating snows.

[catnip]

Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance. 

Thanks!

[Snowman5678]

Hope the EURO can save us. 

 

FYI TT the hills here in Issaquah have snow down to about the 1200 foot level. I am pretty sure it snowed at your place.

Snowed on snoqualmie ridge and north bend according to a friend.