February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/top-10-snowiest-major-cities-a/23760437

 

Cities for snow-lovers to visit.

 

 

Looks like we need to book a group charter to Aomori City, Tōhoku , Japan.

 

Never heard of it... but they get a ton of snow!

[Parksvillewx]

Looks like the 12z GFS trended towards last nights 00z Euro a bit..

[HighlandExperience]

Interesting. I never would have thought Japan had 4/9 of the snowiest cities in the world. That's kind of cool. Guess Jim should visit Japan!

 

I'm actually glad to see this article acknowledge places like Northern Japan, instead of the run of the mill places in NY you always see (somewhat more balanced). Japan has some pretty decent sized cities in  snowy locations in places like Hokkadio. The Northern Mountains there get impressive snow falls.

 

Of course Japan is so crowded so they probably had no choice but to build in certain places. It would be like us building a major city near Alpental or Snoqualmie pass.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like the 12z GFS trended towards last nights 00z Euro a bit..

 

Ya that is a good sign.

 

Plus in last nights discussion the NWS completely disregarded the 00z EURO in favor of yesterday's GFS runs. Hopefully the positive trends continue.

[Parksvillewx]

Ya that is a good sign.

 

Plus in last nights discussion the NWS completely disregarded the 00z EURO in favor of yesterday's GFS runs. Hopefully the positive trends continue.

 

I wish Environment Canada had daily discussions like the NWS does. If they do I've never seen one. I don't think EC is funded well though from what I've heard.

[TT-SEA]

Another gorgeous day here... filtered sunshine and pleasantly warm.   

[pscz1140]

Wow. I know we've kind of already discussed this, but what the heck has happened over at Seattle NWS? I haven't seen a quality discussion for a considerable amount of time. From looking at any of the past 4 or 5 discussions you would think there is no possibility, no potential of anything more than a little snow in Whatcom and rain everywhere else. They don't explain the different scenarios, differences in model runs... hell, they don't explain anything anymore.

 

Kind of a bummer to go to the AFD expecting to see a lengthy, quality discussion about the possibilities of this weekend (or any of the past events) and get a brief paragraph or two if we're lucky. Disappointing.

 

I agree.

 

Burke has never been a very loquacious dude. 

[HighlandExperience]

Wow. I know we've kind of already discussed this, but what the heck has happened over at Seattle NWS? I haven't seen a quality discussion for a considerable amount of time. From looking at any of the past 4 or 5 discussions you would think there is no possibility, no potential of anything more than a little snow in Whatcom and rain everywhere else. They don't explain the different scenarios, differences in model runs... hell, they don't explain anything anymore.

 

Kind of a bummer to go to the AFD expecting to see a lengthy, quality discussion about the possibilities of this weekend (or any of the past events) and get a brief paragraph or two if we're lucky. Disappointing.

 

The morning discussion is basically a cut and paste of the night before.

[MossMan]

Wow. I know we've kind of already discussed this, but what the heck has happened over at Seattle NWS? I haven't seen a quality discussion for a considerable amount of time. From looking at any of the past 4 or 5 discussions you would think there is no possibility, no potential of anything more than a little snow in Whatcom and rain everywhere else. They don't explain the different scenarios, differences in model runs... hell, they don't explain anything anymore.

Kind of a bummer to go to the AFD expecting to see a lengthy, quality discussion about the possibilities of this weekend (or any of the past events) and get a brief paragraph or two if we're lucky. Disappointing.

It is disappointing, especially when Spokane & Portland offices almost always have very in-depth discussions detailing every possible outcome. Albright is the only one from Seattle that seems to really put a lot of effort into the discussion.

[The Swamp]

Wow. I know we've kind of already discussed this, but what the heck has happened over at Seattle NWS? I haven't seen a quality discussion for a considerable amount of time. From looking at any of the past 4 or 5 discussions you would think there is no possibility, no potential of anything more than a little snow in Whatcom and rain everywhere else. They don't explain the different scenarios, differences in model runs... hell, they don't explain anything anymore.

 

Kind of a bummer to go to the AFD expecting to see a lengthy, quality discussion about the possibilities of this weekend (or any of the past events) and get a brief paragraph or two if we're lucky. Disappointing.

It's run by the government, right? Do as little as possible and collect as many bennies as possible. Not much room in there for a quality discussion, now is there?

[Parksvillewx]

12z Euro Total Accum. Snowfall looks snowier by Tuesday AM. Can't post the image at the moment though.

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro Total Accum. Snowfall looks snowier by Tuesday AM. Can't post the image at the moment though.

It's pretty nice.

 

About an inch for Seattle, 6" for Bellingham, and nearly 9" for Vancouver, BC primarily falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

 

Second Euro run in a row to show 6+ inches here and the GFS and GEM both show 3-5" (though the GFS shows most of this falling Sunday night) so I'm feeling pretty good still for Bellingham and SW BC.

 

Not really feeling accumulations for areas South of Everett but it could work out if the details fall into place.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It's not just him though. I mean, he practically just copy and pasted from the 330AM discussion this morning, who copied and pasted from last night's discussion. Almost all the forecasters there don't put any effort into producing a quality AFD. The only forecaster we get a decent amount of write-up from is Albriecht or whatever his name is. But his discussions appear to be few and far between.

 

 

Albrecht is the "Jaya" who used to post detailed analysis at the Western forums.  He won't confirm that, but he has never denied it.  And Albrecht at the NWS is named "Jay", so Jaya is his first name and initial.

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro Total Accum. Snowfall looks snowier by Tuesday AM. Can't post the image at the moment though.

 

Lots of precip on the 12Z ECMWF for Saturday and Sunday... like previous runs.

 

Totally opposite of the WRF.

[HighlandExperience]

Albrecht is the "Jaya" who used to post detailed analysis at the Western forums.  He won't confirm that, but he has never denied it.  And Albrecht at the NWS is named "Jay", so Jaya is his first name and initial.

 

I always liked Jaya.

[catnip]

Lots of precip on the 12Z ECMWF for Saturday and Sunday... like previous runs.

 

Totally opposite of the WRF.

 

Why such a difference between the GFS and WRF? I thought they used the same data?  I noticed that the WRF is completely dry. (Sorry if this has been covered already).

[catnip]

It's pretty nice.

 

About an inch for Seattle, 6" for Bellingham, and nearly 9" for Vancouver, BC primarily falling Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

 

Second Euro run in a row to show 6+ inches here and the GFS and GEM both show 3-5" (though the GFS shows most of this falling Sunday night) so I'm feeling pretty good still for Bellingham and SW BC.

 

Not really feeling accumulations for areas South of Everett but it could work out if the details fall into place.

 

 

Go Euro!! 

[seattleweatherguy]

Lots of precip on the 12Z ECMWF for Saturday and Sunday... like previous runs.

 

Totally opposite of the WRF.

Just a inch is a start. At least id see some white

[epiceast]

It's run by the government, right? Do as little as possible and collect as many bennies as possible. Not much room in there for a quality discussion, now is there?

When did they privatize Portland office then?

[TheBigOne]

Wow, this "event" sure fizzled. Luckily I never got emotionally invested in this one as my location was always going to be on the edge no matter what.

Well said!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Lots of precip on the 12Z ECMWF for Saturday and Sunday... like previous runs.

 

Totally opposite of the WRF.

A trend in this direction from crappy this close to the event can't be bad.

[TheBigOne]

It's run by the government, right? Do as little as possible and collect as many bennies as possible. Not much room in there for a quality discussion, now is there?

Not to mention they can vote themselves in thru lobbying if they have to and give themselves pay raises while cutting funds for the rest of the *lower* staff.

[TheBigOne]

When did they privatize Portland office then?

They didn't but whoever runs the Portland AFD likely wishes it was privatized and goes as far as he can to be creative and innovative.  I didn't know the Seattle AFD sucked so much but considering the demographics there I am not surprised one bit.

[epiceast]

They didn't but whoever runs the Portland AFD likely wishes it was privatized and goes as far as he can to be creative and innovative.  I didn't know the Seattle AFD sucked so much but considering the demographics there I am not surprised one bit.

I was only joking.... I don't think there are any reasons for Seattle NWS to put less effort into their AFDs except for bad luck on Seattle's residents part.

[HighlandExperience]

A trend in this direction from crappy this close to the event can't be bad.

 

Nice change for us on the WRF. Definetly a much better trend than the one shown yesterday. Appears to be coming in  line with what the ECMWF was showing.

[Snowman5678]

A trend in this direction from crappy this close to the event can't be bad.

drying east winds arent as bad which is nice bu tstill...

[Jesse]

At work and can't access maps. Does the WRF show any snow for the Ilwaco area this weekend?

[HighlandExperience]

At work and can't access maps. Does the WRF show any snow for the Ilwaco area this weekend?

 

The WRF shows it dry right over that particular area at the beginning of the weekend. However it is showing snow just east of there.

[Timmy]

Why such a difference between the GFS and WRF? I thought they used the same data?  I noticed that the WRF is completely dry. (Sorry if this has been covered already).

difference in resolution I am guessing.  At least temperature wise.  The offshore nature of this thing regardless of the upper level temperature should allow for at least cool/crisp temperatures at the surface.  

[Phil]

Dramatic improvement on the Euro in regards to the PV. One more bump SE and SEA would be in good shape.

[jaya]

For the snow lovers from about Seattle northward, don't write this off yet!

 

The depth of the cold air over northern and central Canada is huge. It is interesting how easily the models develop the polar vortex westward from the main lobe over Hudson Bay and try to spill cold air over the mountains.

 

Snow in western Washington will depend on a few things, how far southwest the cold gets into the sound (the dry should make it with Fraser outflow and the air mass aloft will likely be cooling significantly as heights fall with the approach of the trough from the NE) and the location and strength of low level development just offshore.

 

Models have had a hard time determining if surface low pressure will develop off western WA or farther north. This diabatic development would occur as a result of the height falls combined with the warm sea surface. The southward location opens us up to overrunning early on Saturday or late Friday night - then into Saturday. The northern location amps up the upper troughing to the northwest, inhibits southward movement of cold air, and keeps more mild onshore flow going in western Washington.  We are talking 100 mile errors in 48 hours (not bad from a model standpoint but crucial in the details here).

 

Another point, the WRF seems too geostrophic at times (resulting in easterly flow instead of more northerly). I think this may be due to how it is handling the boundary layer. That could be why we are getting no precipitation showing up early in the WRF. The NAM has less of this issue and is more aggressive in bringing in the cold air, the more southward low placement, and the all day precipitation on Saturday (but has other issues).  Maybe I'm wishcasting here, but I can see a 50-50 chance of snow on Saturday from about Seattle northward as the arctic boundary hangs up around Seattle, and it could persist into Saturday night as the pattern pulls up somewhat stationary for a while.  The issue of overrunning on the other side of the event (later Saturday night or Sunday into early Monday) will depend on how much cold air gets in and the exact track of any southern stream lows.  Negative tilt fronts, northward moving warm fronts and lows or triple points moving to the south are good for overrunning. Some arctic getting into western Washington helps the argument for overrunning if it occurs early on (we will know Saturday morning).  I do find it amazing that the 12 km NAM is bringing the cold air farther southward than the GFS (lower resolution spectral model that allows cold air to usually spill too far southwestward).  The GFS is internally consistent though seeing that the operational run is the warmest of the ensembles.

 

The negative still is that this will likely be a marginal temperature event and that it is March (in a couple days).  March 1, 1989 seems to be a good analog looking at historical upper air data. March 3-4 1960 somewhat fits the pattern. So it can happen, but is quite rare. This has been a weird year though!

 

I make these observations looking at poor resolution pictures on my home computer (in some ways wish I had my work data).  So my analysis may be all wet.

 

Just my $0.02.

[Phil]

In other news, what a winter this has been for the Midwest. Cities all over the place are breaking their all-time records for # of lows

 

The broad forcing state has been changing dramatically since 2009 in response to the now evident positive disequilibrium in the tropics (Raw NOAA 15/16 - - - CERES, AIRS, and the Sonde network are now in agreement here). Once we leave the current solar maximum, the changes will be rapid in the Northern Hemisphere, with an especially dramatic shift in climate north of 40N.

[pscz1140]

Great post jaya. Thanks for your detailed analysis. Will be doing snow dances, sacrificing chickens, etc. in Capitol Hill in order to make this happen!

[jaya]

pscz1140, you are at best on the edge there, so you may need many chickens!

[pscz1140]

pscz1140, you are at best on the edge there, so you may need many chickens!

I will try to procure some ostriches then. I'm willing to do whatever it takes!!

[Weather101]

Any ideas for Vancouver BC this weekend?

[Parksvillewx]

Awesome analysis jaya! thanks

[jaya]

To Weather101, I'm not sure, that is a really tricky place.  Didn't they have a jewelry store there at one time who offered free diamonds when they had over a certain amount of snow?  I'm sure they'd only do that if it were rare.

 

In Bellingham, any onset snow will be tempered by strong outflow that will be drying things out (very cold/dry source air to the NE).  The best chance of significant snow in the Fraser valley will be with overrunning precipitation later in the period if the Seattle-Everett-Mt Vernon core gets in on the cold. Lighter outflow and a more northern solution would favor the northern portions of the area. Vancouver ... depends where you are. Water all around, elevation differences are huge even within the city, ...   glad I'm in Washington!  Victoria may do well (especially in away from the water).

[jaya]

For Seattle Snow freaks, check out the 18z NAM on Weather Underground.  Go through precipitation, wind, p-type, 850mb, etc.  It is consistent in showing the arctic boundary getting maybe a bit south of Seattle and getting overrun from the SW.  P-type shows some freezing precip in the Southwest interior. Definately the colder of the runs over the past couple days.  Another good site is http://ggweather.com/loops/ncep_loops.htm ... click on various 18z nam data. A bit coarse, but good enough for dreaming.

[Weather101]

To Weather101, I'm not sure, that is a really tricky place. Didn't they have a jewelry store there at one time who offered free diamonds when they had over a certain amount of snow? I'm sure they'd only do that if it were rare.

 

In Bellingham, any onset snow will be tempered by strong outflow that will be drying things out (very cold/dry source air to the NE). The best chance of significant snow in the Fraser valley will be with overrunning precipitation later in the period if the Seattle-Everett-Mt Vernon core gets in on the cold. Lighter outflow and a more northern solution would favor the northern portions of the area. Vancouver ... depends where you are. Water all around, elevation differences are huge even within the city, ... glad I'm in Washington! Victoria may do well (especially in away from the water).

Ok thanks and I'm not sure haha I mean last weekend I got 10 " at sea level near the water. So hoping this weekend turns out ok