February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

18z is a touch colder

Portland 850mb -15c, 510 thickness. Pretty impressive.

 

Bottoms out at 510 at SEA as well... and there is a reload at the end of the run.

[TT-SEA]

SEA dropped to 38 in the last hour.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at radar trends a solid dusting is very possible at my place this evening.

[brody]

SEA dropped to 38 in the last hour.    

Brutal 

[TT-SEA]

Brutal 

 

Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least.

I agree with the sun angle Tim, But you must admit sometimes it's amazing what this Yukon air can do around here. To be honest I am surprised it is this cold today.

[brody]

Interesting to see a drop in mid-afternoon at least.

It's no 30F - 35F though 

[TT-SEA]

It's no 30F - 35F though 

 

That will be Wednesday afternoon.

[Skagit Weather]

Does anybody know why the operational GFS continues to be the warmest member of the ensembles? Is it because it has higher resolution or is it really having problems forecasting this cold spell. It is still 2-2.5 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean even just two days out.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Getting cold in eastern Wa, already some single digits in the mountains.

[Alex_Snakes]

Looks like a little convergence E of Shelton?

[Skagit Weather]

Low of 25.1F this morning and it looks like the high will be slightly below 40F. Looks like teens might be possible tonight and possibly even single digits on Thursday morning as per the Euro on Wundermap.

[Skagit Weather]

850mb temps are at -9C currently while it is -4C at 925mb. Still a ways to go before it gets cold.

[TT-SEA]

850mb temps are at -9C currently while it is -4C at 925mb. Still a ways to go before it gets cold.

 

850mb temp drops another 6 degrees or so.  

 

A high of 41 at SEA will become 33 or 34 on Wednesday.     Initially overnight lows will kept up by wind and general mixing.   But later in the week it will become much more favorable for radiational cooling.

[Guest Winterdog]

The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26.

[TT-SEA]

The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26.

 

Convective.  

 

Looks like an April sky that brings occasional showers and ice pellets.   

[Jesse]

Amazing how well the lower levels warm with a few sunbreaks in early February.

 

Currently 46 at Salem. 34 at Silver Falls

There have been appreciable sunbreaks down here, and the high has only been 37 so far. 36 currently.

 

I think the airmass is just warmer still down that way.

[chinook]

just had an intense shower.   mixed with hail, snowflakes and rain.  left a nice coating (hail) on organic surfaces. 

 

41f at my location near McMinnville.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just read the afternoon Forecast Discussion by our friendly folks at the PDX NWS. Wow. Quite a read. It isn't often you ever see an AFD talk about gusts 75-90mph at Corbett, a Wind Advisory being mentioned for consideration for PDX probably east of I-205, and also they are considering the rare High Wind Warning for the western Gorge which I have been mentioning the possibility in my analysis past few days. That is indeed rare! Remember, criteria for easterly events in the Gorge to reach High Wind Warning criteria is when gusts reach or exceed 75mph. This is different than the more typical Warning for southerly winds which is for gusts 60mph or higher.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There have been appreciable sunbreaks down here, and the high has only been 37 so far. 36 currently.

 

I think the airmass is just warmer still down that way.

 

Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb

 

It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick).

[TT-SEA]

Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb

 

It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick).

 

I thought you would be in a favorable location with this flow.

[Deweydog]

Does anybody know why the operational GFS continues to be the warmest member of the ensembles? Is it because it has higher resolution or is it really having problems forecasting this cold spell. It is still 2-2.5 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean even just two days out.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

The ensembles are skewed versions of the operational.  At this range, they're not very useful.  

[MossMan]

The sun is out here and it is snowing very very lightly from a dark cloud overhead. Currently 36 and the High for today after a low of 26.

I see the clouds off to my east, wishing that would build into something and head west. I thought Dec 2009 was very much a rarity with dry onsets of arctic air masses...until this winter happened. What happened to to the good old days of...well all the other arctic blasts that I remember that always came in with quite a bit of snow and exited with quite a bit as well. I even scored many inches with the onset of the Dec 1998 blast that was supposed to be mostly dry. The best thing in my cold weather world is having snow on the ground starting today for example that would not melt all week...which used to always happen. Maybe I have just been spoiled in my location.

[Guest Winterdog]

I see the clouds off to my east, wishing that would build into something and head west. I thought Dec 2009 was very much a rarity with dry onsets of arctic air masses...until this winter happened. What happened to to the good old days of...well all the other arctic blasts that I remember that always came in with quite a bit of snow and exited with quite a bit as well. I even scored many inches with the onset of the Dec 1998 blast that was supposed to be mostly dry. The best thing in my cold weather world is having snow on the ground starting today for example that would not melt all week...which used to always happen. Maybe I have just been spoiled in my location.

I don't know if there is such a thing as a "snowbow" but all of the conditions were here a few minutes ago with a light to moderate flurry in direct sunshine highlighting the foothill just to our east through the snow shower. No snowbow though. I guess ice crystals don't refract the sunlight in the same way as water does because it surely would have been a rainbow had it been raining.

[Jesse]

The ensembles are skewed versions of the operational. At this range, they're not very useful.

The Euro and Canadian are forecasting temps similar to the GFS ensembles.

 

The GFS operational is a warm outlier among all models.

[AnthonyC]

It looks like we enter a very favorable pattern for mountain snow in week 2.  Too bad it only took until the middle of February for one to develop.  But better late than never.

 

This latest pattern is very good for the Portland area (at least recording snow/ice).  Banked arctic air in Eastern WA/OR...lower pressure offshore...a bulk of the moisture remaining in Oregon.  I could see Portland getting 3 - 6 inches of snow...then ice, whereas Seattle gets an inch or two with a quick transition.

[HighlandExperience]

It looks like we enter a very favorable pattern for mountain snow in week 2.  Too bad it only took until the middle of February for one to develop.  But better late than never.

 

This latest pattern is very good for the Portland area (at least recording snow/ice).  Banked arctic air in Eastern WA/OR...lower pressure offshore...a bulk of the moisture remaining in Oregon.  I could see Portland getting 3 - 6 inches of snow...then ice, whereas Seattle gets an inch or two with a quick transition.

 

Things can change quite a bit in 5 days.

[Snow]

This is the winds for Sunday 4pm according to the 12z GFS. It still shows an east wind for PDX, strongest east side and west end of the gorge. There is not enough southerly winds to push out the cold air. This does not look like an easy transition to rain.

 

http://oi58.tinypic.com/5cinv6.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the winds for Sunday 4pm according to the 12z GFS. It still shows an east wind for PDX, strongest east side and west end of the gorge. There is not enough southerly winds to push out the cold air. This does not look like an easy transition to rain.

 

http://oi58.tinypic.com/5cinv6.jpg

Can you post that image for the Puget sound. looks like se winds and that would favor some areas for us as well.

[FroYoBro]

Offshore flow is starting up in Portland. Hooray!

[Gradient Keeper]

Offshore flow is starting up in Portland. Hooray!

Yup. Just a touch over -2mb now TTD-DLS. Probably get towards -12mb. Fun s**t

[Snow]

Can you post that image for the Puget sound. looks like se winds and that would favor some areas for us as well.

 

Sure, it looks like Northern and Eastern parts of Puget sound still see offshore winds. 

 

http://oi57.tinypic.com/29n8bbt.jpg

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sure, it looks like Northern and Eastern parts of Puget sound still see offshore winds. 

 

http://oi57.tinypic.com/29n8bbt.jpg

Are these surface winds?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Probably -5 or -6C at 850mb

 

It did snow at my house overnight and this afternoon (And stick).

 

Not really. Any flow with any kind of NW component is death at my location. Straight west and especially SW flow are best like in January 2012.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A fresh dusting of snow here.

 

Snowing hard just outside of Silverton at about 1000', looked like about 1/2" on the ground there. Pretty nasty accident on the curves on the Silver Falls highway with a detour set up around it.

[Snow]

Are these surface winds?

 

Yeah surface.

[Sometimesdylan]

Hope you people "down south" (as we call it ) are enjoying the Superb-owl win and the cold weather! Seems like luck is in Seattles favor... If you get an overrunning event on top of all that I can't think of a better week for you guys.

 

I have a feeling that once we do get precip here that this will be the last time Juneau gets to see a cloudless day for at least a month or two. We'll see! Feels like when we get an interior based high pressure system it's a 50/50 chance for something epic. 

[Weather101]

32F here

[Snow]

Rod Hill in Portland forecasting 6+" and ice, he explains the classic set-up well.

 

http://www.kgw.com/community/blogs/weather/Classic-Portland-snow-storm-may-set-up-243278331.html

[50shadesofvan]

SREF's are very aggressive in the temperature department, in case you want to have a look. A couple single digit LOWS possible for PDX. Maybe squeak out a 9?

 

EDIT: lows. Definitely, Definitely lows. Portland ≠ Mars