February 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rod Hill in Portland forecasting 6+" and ice, he explains the classic set-up well.

 

http://www.kgw.com/community/blogs/weather/Classic-Portland-snow-storm-may-set-up-243278331.html

 

He was forecasting a high of 41 on Thursday just a couple days ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SREF's are very aggressive in the temperature department, in case you want to have a look. A couple single digit highs possible for PDX. Maybe squeak out a 9?

 

Have a feeling that is probably just a little overdone.

[Jesse]

East wind picking up quickly out here. Currently 31 with a DP of 29, after a high of 37.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 with light snow at Pendleton currently. Looks like they've picked up enough precip for maybe 2" of snow.

[Jesse]

SREF's are very aggressive in the temperature department, in case you want to have a look. A couple single digit highs possible for PDX. Maybe squeak out a 9?

 

Not gonna happen.

[BLI snowman]

SREF's are very aggressive in the temperature department, in case you want to have a look. A couple single digit highs possible for PDX. Maybe squeak out a 9?

 

You realize Portland's not on Mars, right?

[Jesse]

Starting to look like we go into a long period of mild zonal flow next week. I was really hoping we would have a chilly month overall.

 

That said, the next 6-7 days should be lots of fun!

[GHweatherChris]

Radar shows a little slug of moisture about to move over here, fingers crossed for a little of the white stuff.

 

Edit: Light flurry now.

[50shadesofvan]

You realize Portland's not on Mars, right?

 

Fair enough, but I still feel PDX will have a low between 9-12 Thursday night. We'll see though. 

[Jesse]

Fair enough, but I still feel PDX will have a low between 9-12 Thursday night. We'll see though. 

 

Did you mean lows? You said single digit highs.

 

I could see them falling into that range if the winds completely die.

[Snow]

He was forecasting a high of 41 on Thursday just a couple days ago.

 

It's good to see him come around finally.

[BLI snowman]

Fair enough, but I still feel PDX will have a low between 9-12 Thursday night. We'll see though. 

 

Low is definitely not out of the question. 9 would be pushing it without snowcover, but 11 or 12 is a mighty fair possibility. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

He was forecasting a high of 41 on Thursday just a couple days ago.

He is one of the worst forecasters west of the Mississippi river.

[BLI snowman]

Funny thing is the NAM does show a 19 degree high at PDX on Wednesday. Not gonna happen, but it would be neat if it came at all close to this

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kpdx.txt

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He is one of the worst forecasters west of the Mississippi river.

 

Have to give him credit for one thing though. He was the only forecaster who called for the snow event in the Salem area on Dec. 22, 2008.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Have to give him credit for one thing though. He was the only forecaster who called for the snow event in the Salem area on Dec. 22, 2008.

credit is due for that. He must of had a good dart that day. Lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Funny thing is the NAM does show a 19 degree high at PDX on Wednesday. Not gonna happen, but it would be neat if it came at all close to this

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kpdx.txt

 

A much more realistic highs of 28 and 30 at SLE. Lows of 11 at SLE and HIO

 

I notice that it only bottoms 850mb temps out around -11.5C.

[BLI snowman]

A much more realistic highs of 28 and 30 at SLE. Lows of 11 at SLE and HIO

 

I notice that it only bottoms 850mb temps out around -11.5C.

 

Look at the wind, it shows a sustained 30mph east wind throughout the day Wednesday at PDX. Salem is going to be seeing 20mph gusts, tops. It'll easily be colder at PDX than further south with this, but how much is the question. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Look at the wind, it shows a sustained 30mph east wind throughout the day Wednesday at PDX. Salem is going to be seeing 20mph gusts, tops. It'll easily be colder at PDX than further south with this, but how much is the question. 

 

Oh I understand that. I was not implying PDX was going to be as warm as SLE. I think PDX will easily have the lowest highs of any of the major I-5 stations except for BLI. 

[GHweatherChris]

Light snow now.

[Jesse]

Look at the wind, it shows a sustained 30mph east wind throughout the day Wednesday at PDX. Salem is going to be seeing 20mph gusts, tops. It'll easily be colder at PDX than further south with this, but how much is the question. 

 

850mb temps look too warm in that output. Every other model gets PDX down to at least -15c.

[BLI snowman]

Oh I understand that. I was not implying PDX was going to be as warm as SLE. I think PDX will easily have the lowest highs of any of the major I-5 stations except for BLI. 

 

For BLI or for PDX, I'd consider any high of 25 or lower to be extremely impressive given the circumstances. We'll see, I'd say 27-28 is a better call. 

[Jesse]

Light snow now.

 

Maybe there is still hope for something to head my way. It was frustrating watching it snow at 34-35 degrees much of the afternoon. Nothing really stuck.

[TheBigOne]

I see the clouds off to my east, wishing that would build into something and head west. I thought Dec 2009 was very much a rarity with dry onsets of arctic air masses...until this winter happened. What happened to to the good old days of...well all the other arctic blasts that I remember that always came in with quite a bit of snow and exited with quite a bit as well. I even scored many inches with the onset of the Dec 1998 blast that was supposed to be mostly dry. The best thing in my cold weather world is having snow on the ground starting today for example that would not melt all week...which used to always happen. Maybe I have just been spoiled in my location.

 

I know.  The 1930s had a lot of *dry* Artic Airmases though similar to today.  When it did snow it was usually a cold zonal event and it would warm right up.  T

 

The USA seems to be in a *similar* pattern to the 30s with droughts in the midwest and West coast and at random times extreme heat in the east coast during summer and not as much snow in the winter for them either. 

 

I've notice about every 20 years almost on the dot we have a really bad drought year.  After the 30s it happened in the 50s were a good chunk of the USA was in severe drought and they called it the gritty fifties.   The 30s were the dirty thirties and the 50s were the gritty fifites and then another bad drought in the early to mid 70s with many smaller ones that didn't seem big individually but lasting many years allowed bad snowpacks for the Pacific Northwest and Northern California.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People are going to drill me for this, but I wouldn't be stunned if SLE and EUG hit 32-33 on Thursday.

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe there is still hope for something to head my way. It was frustrating watching it snow at 34-35 degrees much of the afternoon. Nothing really stuck.

I wasn't expecting anything at all, its not heavy enough to stick but its still nice to look at as its coming down.

[BLI snowman]

People are going to drill me for this, but I wouldn't be stunned if SLE and EUG hit 32-33 on Thursday.

 

Pretty good chance of it, actually. 

[TT-SEA]

People are going to drill me for this, but I wouldn't be stunned if SLE and EUG hit 32-33 on Thursday.

 

 

OMG.   You did not actually go there.   Expect to be drilled hard dude.

 

Don't you know that someone predicting a temperature 5 degree warmer than they THINK it will be is THE single most insulting thing you can possibly do here.    Its beyond shocking.     This is so important.   

[snow_wizard]

A much more realistic highs of 28 and 30 at SLE. Lows of 11 at SLE and HIO

 

I notice that it only bottoms 850mb temps out around -11.5C.

-11.5 sounds way too high.

[snow_wizard]

For some reason SEA is actually reporting temps pretty much in the middle of the pack today. At 5pm they were only 3 degrees higher than BLI. Go figure.

[chinook]

People are going to drill me for this, but I wouldn't be stunned if SLE and EUG hit 32-33 on Thursday.

why...?

 

NWS forecasts a high of 30f.

 

Wasn't the highs in the December event a touch more than the forecast?

 

I would be more concerned about achieving forecasted lows with the wind howling. In November, I remember lows being forecasted in the upper teens to low 20's, but only to see the thermometer sitting at 28 - 30f. Perhaps, this is a different air mass than the event in November.

[Jesse]

why...?

 

NWS forecasts a high of 30f.

 

Wasn't the highs in the December event a touch more than the forecast?

 

I would be more concerned about achieving forecasted lows with the wind howling. In November, I remember lows being forecasted in the upper teens to low 20's, but only to see the thermometer sitting at 28 - 30f. Perhaps, this is a different air mass than the event in November.

 

Many places fell into the upper teens to low 20s in late November. Even PDX hit 24.

 

And to say this is a different kind of airmass is a huge understatement.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. 00z GFS is WAY warmer at hour 69 than the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still plenty cold for Seattle, but the 00z really waters down the big blast. 

 

At hour 69 SLE has -9C with 522 thickness vs. -13C with 515 thickness on the 18z.

 

Really watered down, 

[TT-SEA]

Still plenty cold for Seattle, but the 00z really waters down the big blast.

 

At hour 69 SLE has -9C with 522 thickness vs. -13C with 515 thickness on the 18z.

 

Really watered down,

Maybe 40 at SLE. Brrrrrr.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Of course it give Eugene to Salem a snow event on Friday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe 40 at SLE. Brrrrrr.

 

Except now its bringing a surface low at Roseburg...with light precip as far north as probably Aurora. Where the hell did this come from?!

[TT-SEA]

Except now its bringing a surface low at Roseburg...with light precip as far north as probably Aurora. Where the hell did this come from?!

 

 

I know... its totally different.   Very strange.

 

Judging by 96 hours... I think its going to really delay the weekend precip for Seattle.

[FroYoBro]

Except now its bringing a surface low at Roseburg...with light precip as far north as probably Aurora. Where the hell did this come from?!

This run is funky. I hope it doesn't actually go down like that. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 00z is so radically different it kind of just blew my mind.