February 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

About as cold as it was in December.  

 

This blast has been colder for me so far. At least the part with a fully mixed airmass. At no point in early December did I have strong east winds and temps in the teens like this morning.

[Deweydog]

Nice to see that area of sub -20c 850s banked up against the east slopes of the Cascades verified. It is driving an impressive gradient.

 

I would say this is definitely turning into a notable blast.

 

The thermal gradient is impressive.  Only looks to steepen over the next 18-24 hours or so.  

[FroYoBro]

The GFS nails the  southern valley. Saturday low is too far south for Portland on this run. 

[Snow]

Huge snowstorm approaching Friday night. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_060_1000_500_thick.gif

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Portland is going to just get hit. Second round looking good on Friday and sat morning.

[Deweydog]

No, keep it right there.

 

Only so much more time for this thing to trend, anyway. That map is for 7pm tomorrow.

 

We had a high of 25 during that blast.  Tomorrow could do it with a very cold start (we should decouple very nicely after sunset) and clouds moving in.  

[Snow]

The GFS nails the  southern valley. Saturday low is too far south for Portland on this run. 

 

It's going to curve up.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Holy I get completely nailed on the 18z GFS

[Jesse]

We had a high of 25 during that blast.  Tomorrow could do it with a very cold start (we should decouple very nicely after sunset) and clouds moving in.  

 

Do you think PDX will have trouble decoupling tonight?

[Jesse]

PDX holding at 28 as of 2pm. Impressive.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE's temp dropped from 1 to 2pm. 

[FroYoBro]

It's going to curve up.

Not enough. Portland misses out on the goods and then gets an ice storm the next day. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX holding at 28 as of 2pm. Impressive.

 

SLE's temp just dropped in the past hour. I doubt PDX warms.

[Deweydog]

How do you think PDX will fare for lows tonight?

 

20-21ish.  

[Gradient Keeper]

850mb temps at The Dalles are about 5c colder than 12z modeled... So, turns out models underestimated the depth of the arctic air especially central Gorge points east and east of the Cascades/Columbia Basin.

[The Swamp]

Holy s**t I get completely nailed on the 18z GFS

You a cool cat man. I, me, I, me, my location. My location. Hope you get nailed.

[Deweydog]

850mb temps at The Dalles are about 5c colder than 12z modeled... So, turns out models underestimated the depth of the arctic air especially central Gorge points east and east of the Cascades/Columbia Basin.

 

Seems odd they'd be up to 25.  That's quite a lapse rate.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z says more snow for Portland and even a slower warming for seattle. This is getting interesting.

[50shadesofvan]

Latest post for discussing snow chances for us in the north:

 

http://50shadesofvan.com/blog/2014/2/5/will-it-snow-this-weekend

 

EDIT: Maybe should have waited for the 18Z to come out...

[Deweydog]

18z says more snow for Portland and even a slower warming for seattle. This is getting interesting.

 

Yeah... just now. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Seems odd they'd be up to 25.  That's quite a lapse rate.  

12z GFS had -15c for The Dalles I believe... and yeah now approaching -20c. Downslope windstorm anyone?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 degrees colder here today than yesterday same time. Sitting at 27.

[Snow]

18z says more snow for Portland and even a slower warming for seattle. This is getting interesting.

 

Great sign because these systems always track north even at the last second.

[Jesse]

Seems odd they'd be up to 25.  That's quite a lapse rate.  

 

I was thinking the same thing.

 

Maybe it was the "warmer" start? They only fell to 19 overnight due to lingering cloudcover. Tomorrow will easily be colder there. May not crack 20. Same goes for out here.

[Snow]

Seattle gets in on the action too as a PSCZ sets up on Sunday.

 

http://oi59.tinypic.com/10oemfn.jpg

[Deweydog]

I was thinking the same thing.

 

Maybe it was the "warmer" start? They only fell to 19 overnight due to lingering cloudcover. Tomorrow will easily be colder there. May not crack 20. Same goes for out here.

 

Probably has something to do with it.

 

Just for a comparison, as 850mb temps approached and reached -20c on 2-2-89, The Dales was about 7 degrees.  Obviously this event isn't going to be nearly as cold, but it kind of gives you an idea how unusual it would be to be in the mid 20's.  

[Snow]

We also must remember what happened in early December. Models weren't forecasting any snow for PDX, just flurries at best and it snowed a good 2 to 3 inches in Vancouver and 1" in parts of PDX. Models always underestimate moisture. Today in Toronto, they were forecast to get 4 to 6 inches with the heavier amounts to the south but look what happened. Toronto got a foot of snow.

[bainbridgekid]

Reminds me a bit of the storms on Jan. 18 and 19, 2012.

 

Those ones trended significantly North at the last minute.

 

Like 24-36 hours before the 1/18 storm it was looking like Portland would be ground zero and Seattle too far North and Centralia ended up being ground zero with significant snow up to about Everett.

 

Doesn't mean this one will do a similar thing, but it's definitely possible.

 

No doubt there is a much colder air mass already in place this time around and the low is modeled further South than it was mistakenly modeled that time though.

[Deweydog]

Reminds me a bit of the storms on Jan. 18 and 19, 2012.

 

Those ones trended significantly North at the last minute.

 

Like 24-36 hours before the 1/18 storm was looking like Portland would be ground zero and Seattle too far North and Centralia ended up being ground zero with significant snow up to about Everett.

 

Doesn't mean this one will do a similar thing, but it's definitely possible.

 

Lots of differences, the biggest being the intensity of the air mass, most importantly how dry and deep it is.  I don't think a big shift north is all that likely given the fact the precip is basically modeled to align with locations where dew points are currently 10-15 degrees higher than those to the north.  

[bainbridgekid]

Lots of differences, the biggest being the intensity of the air mass, most importantly how dry and deep it is.  I don't think a big shift north is all that likely given the fact the precip is basically modeled to align with locations where dew points are currently 10-15 degrees higher than those to the north.  

Very true.

 

The aimass in place this time is already legitimately arctic and that time the cold air moved in just as the storm was approaching. Definitely quite different.

 

Either way this storm is progged to come in further South than the Jan. 2012 one ever was so Portlanders should not worry about things shifting too far North like it did then. The further North the better.

[Deweydog]

Very true.

 

The aimass in place this time is already legitimately arctic and that time the cold air moved in just as the storm was approaching. Definitely quite different.

 

Either way this storm is progged to come in further South than the Jan. 2012 one ever was so Portlanders should not worry about things shifting too far North like it did then. The further North the better.

 

Absolutely.  At this point the mechanics of things simply won't allow for a too warm/too wet scenario up here.  Any "screw job" will be of the cold/dry variety.  

[brody]

Just checked my temp and I am sitting on a  " Brutal "  28F and a nice 9mph wind

[luvssnow_spokane]

7 degrees colder here today than yesterday same time. Sitting at 27.

Got a little warmer than forecasted for my area today at 33 vs the forecasted 29... Not a big deal still chilly!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not to often you see temps in the twenties on a February afternoon.

[Weather101]

30F already here didn't get above freezing

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO Ensembles goes bonkers with snow PDX metro... Mean shows 9" ... the least 4" and some members go crazy 14-15"

 

Notice 18z GFS has The Dalles MUCH colder than 12z did. It also has correct 850mb temps. 12z had -15c roughly, and 18z -21c. Current analysis shows 18z to be correct. What does this or could this mean? PDX isn't going to moderate anytime soon. It might even turn colder if the E wind continues and especially with added cloud cover. We saw how models were wrong today it was a bit colder than expected. I believe that may carry through Thursday - Saturday.

Check out the extracted data though 00z Sunday(HR 78) VERY COLD and that will just keep PDX metro in the deep freezer. Will probably have to lower temps Thursday through Saturday.
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kdls

[FroYoBro]

NWS issued a Winter Storm Watch for the Portland area for snow and blowing snow. 1 to 5 inches. I think they should go to 0-18 to cover their bases like Dewey. 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

As pathetic as this sounds, I would like just an inch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

As pathetic as this sounds, I would like just an inch.

That's what she said.

[East Dubzz]

That's what she said.

Yes.