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February 2014 in the PNW


stuffradio

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Gradient has gone offshore through the lower Fraser region, although it will take awhile to produce gusty NE winds across Whatcom and south side of Vancouver BC metro.
 

HR    BLI-YZT      BLI-YQQ      BLI-YHE      BLI-YKA      OMK-YKA00|206 173  3.3|206 192  1.4|206 206   .0|206 214  -.8|203 214 -1.101|201 170  3.1|201 188  1.3|201 202  -.1|201 214 -1.3|201 214 -1.302|198 167  3.1|198 187  1.1|198 201  -.3|198 216 -1.8|202 216 -1.403|195 166  2.9|195 185  1.0|195 199  -.4|195 219 -2.4|204 219 -1.5The all-important 850 mb thickness line of 1300 meters lies just south of Seattle, although for sticking snow down near sea level a value of about 1290 to 1292 is needed. 925 mb temps of -2c at BLI but a bit too warm to the south for ideal accumulation. I expect as we see Fraser outflow increase we should see 850 mb thickness drop closer to 1288-1292 and 925 mb temps back to -3 or -4c across the NW interior. Generally at this point I prefer 2-5" totals across Vancouver metro with 3-6" totals near Bellingham south to around the Skagit/Snohomish line. 2-4" near Arlington and trace to 2" in the Seattle/Everett area away from the immediate shoreline.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Good luck Randy!    How exciting.

 

Thanks! She is making laps around the house right now, I was a little freaked out until our birthing assistant came over to help out. I think we are inching our way to heading down to the birth center in Everett. Im guessing we will go in the next few hrs. Just started snowing hard as well!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Well I think it's safe to say all the precip you get tonight will be in the form of snow. The amounts will depend on if the the low can get any definition together and how it interacts with the outflow. Still too early to call.

How about tmrw?

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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Gradient has gone offshore through the lower Fraser region, although it will take awhile to produce gusty NE winds across Whatcom and south side of Vancouver BC metro.

 

HR    BLI-YZT      BLI-YQQ      BLI-YHE      BLI-YKA      OMK-YKA00|206 173  3.3|206 192  1.4|206 206   .0|206 214  -.8|203 214 -1.101|201 170  3.1|201 188  1.3|201 202  -.1|201 214 -1.3|201 214 -1.302|198 167  3.1|198 187  1.1|198 201  -.3|198 216 -1.8|202 216 -1.403|195 166  2.9|195 185  1.0|195 199  -.4|195 219 -2.4|204 219 -1.5The all-important 850 mb thickness line of 1300 meters lies just south of Seattle, although for sticking snow down near sea level a value of about 1290 to 1292 is needed. 925 mb temps of -2c at BLI but a bit too warm to the south for ideal accumulation. I expect as we see Fraser outflow increase we should see 850 mb thickness drop closer to 1288-1292 and 925 mb temps back to -3 or -4c across the NW interior. Generally at this point I prefer 2-5" totals across Vancouver metro with 3-6" totals near Bellingham south to around the Skagit/Snohomish line. 2-4" near Arlington and trace to 2" in the Seattle/Everett area away from the immediate shoreline.

My confusion with this 3-6” forecast, along with pretty much all other forecasts is that there are going to be 2 separate periods of snow from my understanding... The one tonight which doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon, and then the main event tomorrow afternoon. Per RADAR and current observations, it would appear several inches is likely tonight, and then again several inches tomorrow. I am talking NW Interior, Western Whatcom County specifically. I have never been so confused about a 36 hour period of snow. So far the snow line up here is tracking very similarly to Nov 26 2006 in Whatcom County. .

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Thanks! She is making laps around the house right now, I was a little freaked out until our birthing assistant came over to help out. I think we are inching our way to heading down to the birth center in Everett. Im guessing we will go in the next few hrs. Just started snowing hard as well!

Congrats! Wife and I had triplet daughters in Feb 2012.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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My confusion with this 3-6” forecast, along with pretty much all other forecasts is that there are going to be 2 separate periods of snow from my understanding... The one tonight which doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon, and then the main event tomorrow afternoon. Per RADAR and current observations, it would appear several inches is likely tonight, and then again several inches tomorrow. I am talking NW Interior, Western Whatcom County specifically. I have never been so confused about a 36 hour period of snow. So far the snow line up here is tracking very similarly to Nov 26 2006 in Whatcom County. .

I am forecasting those values as totals from now through Monday morning, not from any single storm. Sorry if there was some confusion there.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong.

It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this.

 

Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo.

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What are your thoughts on the potential Gorge snow/ZR event tomorrow evening-Tuesday?

 

I am not optimistic about Monday-Tuesday, truthfully. Perhaps a marginal light snow risk east of Cascade Locks, a trace to 1". I think precip rates will be light and only 0.05 to 0.10" QPF for the event. I see no wintry precip risk for areas around TTD with this event.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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At this point I am so ready for this winter to be over. My absolute least favorite time of year. Winter is pretty much done and it takes forever and a day for it to finally get nice. This time we have the added treat of a possible major El Nino next winter to look forward to! Have I ever made it totally clear how much hate this climate? My wife has agreed it's past time for us to make a serious effort to get out of here. I can hardly wait until we are in a position to be able to sell our house so we can do it. Tim sure picked a good time to get out of here this year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this.

 

Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo.

I suppose. Now we can just watch pretty much no hope at all both on the models and in reality.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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And one more thing...if I have to watch the East get smashed one more time this winter I think I will throw a sheit fit.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I recommend looking at individual ECMWF members through a wx subscription service if you really want to put it in context...especially for something as nuanced as snow. Keep in mind however that while the ECMWF deterministic run features a 14 km grid, the ensembles are ran at only 50% the resolution (28 km). Thus the ensembles tend to feature some elevation contamination to snowfall totals especially. It is useful to compare the various members to the deterministic keeping that in mind. I found this method very useful when forecasting snow amounts with our winter storms in the Portland area in early February.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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Well, personally, I think the Vancouver area will end up with 5-10cm tonight with more toward the south of the city, and 10-15cm tomorrow night in the north of the city with less toward the south.

Thanks !!! :)

2013/2014 Winter season

Coldest Low: 14 F December 7th

Coldest High: 27.3 F December 7th

Coldest Wind chill: 5 F December 7th

Lowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6th

Days below freezing: 5

Total Snowfall: 11 inches

Most snowfall in a Day: 8 inches

Days With Snow: 3

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It grabbed this pattern before the ecmwf even thought about it. It came close.

Sure, but at the macroscale level the discussion is different. At that scale you're looking at large scale external and tropical forcings that impact the large scale boundary state(s). These perturbations are captured by the satellite/sonde network, which is fed into the models..which will respond differently to the data in their LR progs.

 

I'm referring to the different idea the GFS had at the mesoscale level, closer to the event. The GFS's reso (27km I believe) and various convective params are well outdated compared to the CMC/ECM suite.

 

If you get close to an event, and the oldest global with the lowest reso is on its own, then it's best to ignore it.

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Jim. Don't worry about s**t you can't change. Maybe a nino is what we need.

The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this.

 

Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo.

 

Methinks this was a topic of discussion a couple nights ago. I say let the weenies have their fun, but if folks ask for my opinion they will get it, whether it be something they like or not.

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The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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And one more thing...if I have to watch the East get smashed one more time this winter I think I will throw a sheit fit.

We tend to get good winters.. ( :D ) Thanks to Rocky Mountains forcing the system to conserve angular momentum (troughing). Move out here and we'll grab a pack of beer and some Cuban sticks.

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The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul.

 

Or travel a lot if your finances allow. Coming from someone who has lived in rather cold and snowy climes (Idaho and Utah), I like not having to shovel snow all winter long and enjoying the park with my kids on a mild but dry winter day with temps around 50. To each their own though. :)

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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We tend to get good winters..move out here and we'll grab a pack of beer and some Cuban sticks. :D

I don't want to move to the East. I would hate the summers there. I'm looking at about the same area you are in this state.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Methinks this was a topic of discussion a couple nights ago. I say let the weenies have their fun, but if folks ask for my opinion they will get it, whether it be something they like or not.

You're my new favorite poster. :P

 

In all seriousness, if I were to invest any emotion in the GFS, I'd be as miserable as Jim right now. It sucks.

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The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul.

Christ man. I hear you. I am trapped also. I have property to visit but we have a family business so it makes it hard to move away. But yeah I agree I hate this ******* place most of the time.
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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Or travel a lot if your finances allow. Coming from someone who has lived in rather cold and snowy climes (Idaho and Utah), I like not having to shovel snow all winter long and enjoying the park with my kids on a mild but dry winter day with temps around 50. To each their own though. :)

Nobody that hasn't lived here their whole life could hope to understand my frustration. I'm really disappointed I finally had to give up on this area. The fact is I can't afford to be this unhappy 90% of the time this time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I don't want to move to the East. I would hate the summers there. I'm looking at about the same area you are in this state.

Yep we're moving in 2015, which is the year Shelby will start school. We're thinking Chelan WA or Coerde Alene, ID.

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Nobody that hasn't lived here their whole life could hope to understand my frustration. I'm really disappointed I finally had to give up on this area. The fact is I can't afford to be this unhappy 90% of the time this time of year.

 

I forgot to add I lived in Olympia area from 1988-2001 or from about my elementary school years through high school. I was excited to move away then but found it nice to move back to the PNW in 2010 for work reasons. I do prefer the Portland climate over most of western WA especially in summertime. I can actually grow decent tomatoes down here.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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You're my new favorite poster. :P

 

In all seriousness, if I were to invest any emotion in the GFS, I'd be as miserable as Jim right now. It sucks.

It appeared to be onto something before the other models but seems to have lost it in the home stretch. I'm miserable because of too many years of disappointment and being unable to move for many reasons that I'm not going to go into. It's almost like hell at this point.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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