brody Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This place died quick, no surprise given how many locations will NOT see snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I'm on here much less while its snowing because I like to enjoy it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Thanks everyone! I will post when I can. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Thanks everyone! I will post when I can. Good luck Randy! How exciting. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Gradient has gone offshore through the lower Fraser region, although it will take awhile to produce gusty NE winds across Whatcom and south side of Vancouver BC metro. HR BLI-YZT BLI-YQQ BLI-YHE BLI-YKA OMK-YKA00|206 173 3.3|206 192 1.4|206 206 .0|206 214 -.8|203 214 -1.101|201 170 3.1|201 188 1.3|201 202 -.1|201 214 -1.3|201 214 -1.302|198 167 3.1|198 187 1.1|198 201 -.3|198 216 -1.8|202 216 -1.403|195 166 2.9|195 185 1.0|195 199 -.4|195 219 -2.4|204 219 -1.5The all-important 850 mb thickness line of 1300 meters lies just south of Seattle, although for sticking snow down near sea level a value of about 1290 to 1292 is needed. 925 mb temps of -2c at BLI but a bit too warm to the south for ideal accumulation. I expect as we see Fraser outflow increase we should see 850 mb thickness drop closer to 1288-1292 and 925 mb temps back to -3 or -4c across the NW interior. Generally at this point I prefer 2-5" totals across Vancouver metro with 3-6" totals near Bellingham south to around the Skagit/Snohomish line. 2-4" near Arlington and trace to 2" in the Seattle/Everett area away from the immediate shoreline. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This place died quick, no surprise given how many locations will NOT see snow Dumping here the last hour and approaching 3/4" on the cars outside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Good luck Randy! How exciting. Thanks! She is making laps around the house right now, I was a little freaked out until our birthing assistant came over to help out. I think we are inching our way to heading down to the birth center in Everett. Im guessing we will go in the next few hrs. Just started snowing hard as well! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well I think it's safe to say all the precip you get tonight will be in the form of snow. The amounts will depend on if the the low can get any definition together and how it interacts with the outflow. Still too early to call.How about tmrw? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Gradient has gone offshore through the lower Fraser region, although it will take awhile to produce gusty NE winds across Whatcom and south side of Vancouver BC metro. HR BLI-YZT BLI-YQQ BLI-YHE BLI-YKA OMK-YKA00|206 173 3.3|206 192 1.4|206 206 .0|206 214 -.8|203 214 -1.101|201 170 3.1|201 188 1.3|201 202 -.1|201 214 -1.3|201 214 -1.302|198 167 3.1|198 187 1.1|198 201 -.3|198 216 -1.8|202 216 -1.403|195 166 2.9|195 185 1.0|195 199 -.4|195 219 -2.4|204 219 -1.5The all-important 850 mb thickness line of 1300 meters lies just south of Seattle, although for sticking snow down near sea level a value of about 1290 to 1292 is needed. 925 mb temps of -2c at BLI but a bit too warm to the south for ideal accumulation. I expect as we see Fraser outflow increase we should see 850 mb thickness drop closer to 1288-1292 and 925 mb temps back to -3 or -4c across the NW interior. Generally at this point I prefer 2-5" totals across Vancouver metro with 3-6" totals near Bellingham south to around the Skagit/Snohomish line. 2-4" near Arlington and trace to 2" in the Seattle/Everett area away from the immediate shoreline.My confusion with this 3-6” forecast, along with pretty much all other forecasts is that there are going to be 2 separate periods of snow from my understanding... The one tonight which doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon, and then the main event tomorrow afternoon. Per RADAR and current observations, it would appear several inches is likely tonight, and then again several inches tomorrow. I am talking NW Interior, Western Whatcom County specifically. I have never been so confused about a 36 hour period of snow. So far the snow line up here is tracking very similarly to Nov 26 2006 in Whatcom County. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Thanks! She is making laps around the house right now, I was a little freaked out until our birthing assistant came over to help out. I think we are inching our way to heading down to the birth center in Everett. Im guessing we will go in the next few hrs. Just started snowing hard as well!Congrats! Wife and I had triplet daughters in Feb 2012. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 My confusion with this 3-6” forecast, along with pretty much all other forecasts is that there are going to be 2 separate periods of snow from my understanding... The one tonight which doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon, and then the main event tomorrow afternoon. Per RADAR and current observations, it would appear several inches is likely tonight, and then again several inches tomorrow. I am talking NW Interior, Western Whatcom County specifically. I have never been so confused about a 36 hour period of snow. So far the snow line up here is tracking very similarly to Nov 26 2006 in Whatcom County. .I am forecasting those values as totals from now through Monday morning, not from any single storm. Sorry if there was some confusion there. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am forecasting those values as totals from now through Monday morning, not from any single storm. Sorry if there was some confusion there.What are your thoughts on the potential Gorge snow/ZR event tomorrow evening-Tuesday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 All is turning white here once again! Snowing pretty hard! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong.Pretty much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong.It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this. Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 What are your thoughts on the potential Gorge snow/ZR event tomorrow evening-Tuesday? I am not optimistic about Monday-Tuesday, truthfully. Perhaps a marginal light snow risk east of Cascade Locks, a trace to 1". I think precip rates will be light and only 0.05 to 0.10" QPF for the event. I see no wintry precip risk for areas around TTD with this event. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 How about tmrw? Well, personally, I think the Vancouver area will end up with 5-10cm tonight with more toward the south of the city, and 10-15cm tomorrow night in the north of the city with less toward the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brody Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 This event is dead for the Central Puget Sound. Too bad the GFS picked this time to be so wrong.yup, no snow south of Arlington Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this.It grabbed this pattern before the ecmwf even thought about it. It came close. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 That is one hell of a arctic front shown next weekend on the 00z. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 At this point I am so ready for this winter to be over. My absolute least favorite time of year. Winter is pretty much done and it takes forever and a day for it to finally get nice. This time we have the added treat of a possible major El Nino next winter to look forward to! Have I ever made it totally clear how much hate this climate? My wife has agreed it's past time for us to make a serious effort to get out of here. I can hardly wait until we are in a position to be able to sell our house so we can do it. Tim sure picked a good time to get out of here this year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this. Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo. I suppose. Now we can just watch pretty much no hope at all both on the models and in reality. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 12z ECMWF hit the snowfall pretty hard for BLI-YVR Sun-Mon.Raw totals:YVR: 9.2"Blaine: 9.0"BLI: 8.2"Mt Vernon: 3.4"Arlington 2.0"Everett 0.3"Nanaimo: 9.7"Victoria: 4.1" Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 And one more thing...if I have to watch the East get smashed one more time this winter I think I will throw a sheit fit. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I suppose. Now we can just watch pretty much no hope at all both on the models and in reality.Jim. Don't worry about you can't change. Maybe a nino is what we need. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I recommend looking at individual ECMWF members through a wx subscription service if you really want to put it in context...especially for something as nuanced as snow. Keep in mind however that while the ECMWF deterministic run features a 14 km grid, the ensembles are ran at only 50% the resolution (28 km). Thus the ensembles tend to feature some elevation contamination to snowfall totals especially. It is useful to compare the various members to the deterministic keeping that in mind. I found this method very useful when forecasting snow amounts with our winter storms in the Portland area in early February. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well, personally, I think the Vancouver area will end up with 5-10cm tonight with more toward the south of the city, and 10-15cm tomorrow night in the north of the city with less toward the south.Thanks !!! Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 It grabbed this pattern before the ecmwf even thought about it. It came close.Sure, but at the macroscale level the discussion is different. At that scale you're looking at large scale external and tropical forcings that impact the large scale boundary state(s). These perturbations are captured by the satellite/sonde network, which is fed into the models..which will respond differently to the data in their LR progs. I'm referring to the different idea the GFS had at the mesoscale level, closer to the event. The GFS's reso (27km I believe) and various convective params are well outdated compared to the CMC/ECM suite. If you get close to an event, and the oldest global with the lowest reso is on its own, then it's best to ignore it. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Jim. Don't worry about s**t you can't change. Maybe a nino is what we need. The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's never a good choice to ride the GFS when it's an outlier. You of all people should know this. Once the GFS is upgraded to 13km reso w/ new convective params later this year, we can give it a fresh slate, imo. Methinks this was a topic of discussion a couple nights ago. I say let the weenies have their fun, but if folks ask for my opinion they will get it, whether it be something they like or not. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 And one more thing...if I have to watch the East get smashed one more time this winter I think I will throw a sheit fit.We tend to get good winters.. ( ) Thanks to Rocky Mountains forcing the system to conserve angular momentum (troughing). Move out here and we'll grab a pack of beer and some Cuban sticks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul. Or travel a lot if your finances allow. Coming from someone who has lived in rather cold and snowy climes (Idaho and Utah), I like not having to shovel snow all winter long and enjoying the park with my kids on a mild but dry winter day with temps around 50. To each their own though. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 We tend to get good winters..move out here and we'll grab a pack of beer and some Cuban sticks. I don't want to move to the East. I would hate the summers there. I'm looking at about the same area you are in this state. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Methinks this was a topic of discussion a couple nights ago. I say let the weenies have their fun, but if folks ask for my opinion they will get it, whether it be something they like or not.You're my new favorite poster. In all seriousness, if I were to invest any emotion in the GFS, I'd be as miserable as Jim right now. It sucks. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 The only thing I can change is where I live, and I am going to do it. I literally cannot stand to wait any longer. For younger people on this forum I say get out while you can before this climate steals your soul.Christ man. I hear you. I am trapped also. I have property to visit but we have a family business so it makes it hard to move away. But yeah I agree I hate this ******* place most of the time. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Or travel a lot if your finances allow. Coming from someone who has lived in rather cold and snowy climes (Idaho and Utah), I like not having to shovel snow all winter long and enjoying the park with my kids on a mild but dry winter day with temps around 50. To each their own though. Nobody that hasn't lived here their whole life could hope to understand my frustration. I'm really disappointed I finally had to give up on this area. The fact is I can't afford to be this unhappy 90% of the time this time of year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't want to move to the East. I would hate the summers there. I'm looking at about the same area you are in this state.Yep we're moving in 2015, which is the year Shelby will start school. We're thinking Chelan WA or Coerde Alene, ID. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 Nobody that hasn't lived here their whole life could hope to understand my frustration. I'm really disappointed I finally had to give up on this area. The fact is I can't afford to be this unhappy 90% of the time this time of year. I forgot to add I lived in Olympia area from 1988-2001 or from about my elementary school years through high school. I was excited to move away then but found it nice to move back to the PNW in 2010 for work reasons. I do prefer the Portland climate over most of western WA especially in summertime. I can actually grow decent tomatoes down here. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 23, 2014 Report Share Posted February 23, 2014 You're my new favorite poster. In all seriousness, if I were to invest any emotion in the GFS, I'd be as miserable as Jim right now. It sucks. It appeared to be onto something before the other models but seems to have lost it in the home stretch. I'm miserable because of too many years of disappointment and being unable to move for many reasons that I'm not going to go into. It's almost like hell at this point. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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