February 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Nah. You stepped in it deep, friend.

Don't be so sensitive. I told my in-laws this morning that their arctic air is coming our way... told them it would in the 20s and they laughed. Who cares?

 

I would not want their winter. I like that 20 is brutal.

[bainbridgekid]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

[BLI snowman]

PDX saw a high in the teens on 2/3/89. This cold wave looks like it will bottom out on 2/6/14. Do three days really make that big of a difference with regard to sun angle?

 

Obviously February '89 was colder than this will be, but 850s around -15c and raging outflow would be able to keep PDX below 29 pretty handily, IMO.

 

It'd have to take pretty strong outflow (50mph+), and I'm not sure that'll be in the cards with this.

 

If the 12z Euro verified, I'm sure there'd be some highs in the mid 20s. 

[brody]

No... I was being facetious.  I think they had a couple highs in the upper 20's in southern GA earlier this week, but that's the coldest we've seen this winter in the lower 48.  

I realize that but felt the need to be the smart a** for a moment

 

Tim can't have all the fun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

 

If I ever meet one I'm leaving my wife...

 

jk

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[brody]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

Gee, I wonder why?

[GHweatherChris]

If I ever meet one I'm leaving my wife...

 

jk

My wife and daughter are into the weather and extreme aspects, of course not like me but they do enjoy learning things.

[Gradient Keeper]

3rd place? You couldn't do any better than 3rd PLACE?  You're a tremendous failure!

 

Holy frosty owl droppings, 504 thickness PDX! If verified this will be quite a bit colder than December's blast.

[Brennan]

No... in Safeway walking around with the cart. Did not realize there was no reception. Walked by the door and it was on there 4 times.

You can’t even grocery shop with your family without putting your phone down or leaving it in the car? God that’s annoying. Your family hates you. 

[Snow]

 

That's insane! If that happens then they is now no way that arctic air will move out that fast without a huge transition event.

[BLI snowman]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

 

 

Math/Science fields still tend to be extremely male-dominant. Combination of a lack of interest among women and a lack of promotion/opportunity, as many women feel discouraged from  an early age to enter these fields because of the overwhelming gender disparities that are present.

 

That being said, there are plenty of women who are fascinated by the weather, but I've only known a few who take it to the level that we do where they'd actually venture out and post about it online. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3rd place? You couldn't do any better than 3rd PLACE?  You're a tremendous failure!

 

Holy frosty owl droppings, 504 thickness PDX! If verified this will be quite a bit colder than December's blast.

 

Not in Eugene.

[TT-SEA]

You can’t even grocery shop with your family without putting your phone down or leaving it in the car? God that’s annoying. Your family hates you.

Screw you... I am walking around on my own while my daughter naps in the cart I am pushing.

[Gradient Keeper]

You can’t even grocery shop with your family without putting your phone down or leaving it in the car? God that’s annoying. Your family hates you. 

Harsh. Comment wasn't needed dude. No, really. Yes, I'm serious.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

Too many ways to deal with this statement--and none of them are good...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think the biggest potential for this to be colder than December is with daytime highs in outflow areas. The longer days will negate that probably in other areas. Lows could be colder, but its hard to imagine PDX getting below 12, SLE below 9, and Eugene below -10 with no snow cover.

 

I think the best chance of a day with a high below about 28 in non-outflow areas would be if there was an overrunning event.

[Sometimesdylan]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts?

 

My girlfriend checks the GFS meteostar charts every once in a while. I got her into it. Tryinto get her into the Euro and canadian but she is still trying to wrap her head aroud the 4 panel charts. She is the operations manager for a local heli ski company so the weather and avalanche forecasting are right up her alley.

[Gradient Keeper]

I think the biggest potential for this to be colder than December is with daytime highs in outflow areas. The longer days will negate that probably in other areas. Lows could be colder, but its hard to imagine PDX getting below 12, SLE below 9, and Eugene below -10 with no snow cover.

 

I think the best chance of a day with a high below about 28 in non-outflow areas would be if there was an overrunning event.

If we had snowcover hiigh temps would be in the 0's... Remember what happened in Eugene back during December last Okay, that was with 850mb temps -12c over that area roughly... Imagine widespread 8" of snow, with 850mb temps -16c to -19c. They were -10 below right we would see the same throughout northern Willamette Valley, PDX or maybe slightly colder... It would be incredibly fun! WHAT IF....

[BLI snowman]

The impressive thing about this isn't going to be the intensity, but the duration. Getting 3 or 4 consecutive highs freezing in February is historically rare this late for Portland and Seattle.

 

PDX did 3+ straight in February in 1996, 1989, and 1950, but at the very beginning of the month. SEA only ever did it at the beginning of the month in 1989. 

 

You have to go back to 1936, before the airport stations existed, to find a comparable February airmass in terms of duration. That airmass produced 6 straight highs below freezing in Portland between February 13 and February 18.

 

It's one thing to get a 1-2 day window for cold in February, but 4 straight highs below freezing would set this event in pretty special company.

[GHweatherChris]

The impressive thing about this isn't going to be the intensity, but the duration. Getting 3 or 4 consecutive highs freezing in February is historically rare this late for Portland and Seattle.

 

PDX did 3+ straight in February in 1996, 1989, and 1950, but at the very beginning of the month. SEA only ever did it at the beginning of the month in 1989. 

 

You have to go back to 1936, before the airport stations existed, to find a comparable February airmass in terms of duration. That airmass produced 6 straight highs below freezing in Portland between February 13 and February 18.

 

It's one thing to get a 1-2 day window for cold in February, but 4 straight highs below freezing would set this event in pretty special company.

The event will not be special unless we get some snow, no matter how cold it gets.

[Deweydog]

 

Coldest since 1990.  

[Deweydog]

Screw you... I am walking around on my own while my daughter naps in the cart I am pushing.

 

Don't be so sensitive.  Yuppies need constant stimulation, nothing wrong with that.  

[Deweydog]

I think the biggest potential for this to be colder than December is with daytime highs in outflow areas. The longer days will negate that probably in other areas. Lows could be colder, but its hard to imagine PDX getting below 12, SLE below 9, and Eugene below -10 with no snow cover.

 

I think the best chance of a day with a high below about 28 in non-outflow areas would be if there was an overrunning event.

 

Highs are going to be a really tough call for this.  The lack of snow cover on the eastside could play a pretty big factor along with the fact the cold advection looks to be a pretty slow process.  

[Deweydog]

Has anyone ever stopped to consider the remarkable lack of female weather enthusiasts? 

 

I can speak for my wife.  She thinks we're all nuts.  

[TT-SEA]

I can speak for my wife.  She thinks we're all nuts.  

 

Same with my kids.

[TT-SEA]

Harsh. Comment wasn't needed dude. No, really. Yes, I'm serious.

 

 

Thanks Rob!

 

Did I mention how much I like your posts since you came back?     Yes... I did that yesterday.  

 

Keep up the good work and don't let my ribbing on your wording bother you.    If this thing was going to dump a foot of snow at the onset... it would actually be insane.    

[BLI snowman]

The event will not be special unless we get some snow, no matter how cold it gets.

 

Maybe from a subjective enjoyment standpoint, sure. Objectively or statistically, it looks like it will probably be special regardless.

[East Dubzz]

Id be happy to trade weather with you guys if you want to see some extremes! The winter has been brutal over here. I love when we get huge snowfall and extreme cold. But even I am getting tired of it, I want consistent 20s and 30s!

[BLI snowman]

Highs are going to be a really tough call for this.  The lack of snow cover on the eastside could play a pretty big factor along with the fact the cold advection looks to be a pretty slow process.  

 

Yep. Throw in totally clear skies and I think you have a recipe for weenie disappointment. Based on the Euro, I'd say 25 would be a good call for Thursday in Portland. Maybe 27-28 in Seattle. Extremely low dewpoints though and a chance for a major nighttime freeze (9-10 territory at the airports) at the end of the week. 

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe from a subjective enjoyment standpoint, sure. Objectively or statistically, it looks like it will probably be special regardless.

I don't doubt some numbers will be impressive temp wise.

 

But, can't go sledding on stats.

[BLI snowman]

I don't doubt some numbers will be impressive temp wise.

 

But, can't go sledding on stats.

 

 

I wouldn't freak out at this point. The model support for a major overrunning event on Saturday continues to grow stronger. Might ultimately have to settle for 12 hours of fun, but it could be a damned snowy 12 hours. 

[GHweatherChris]

I wouldn't freak out at this point. The model support for a major overrunning event on Saturday continues to grow stronger. Might ultimately have to settle for 12 hours of fun, but it could be a damned snowy 12 hours. 

Not freaking out at all, yet.

 

I will gladly take a 12 hour blizzard if thats all we get.

[BLI snowman]

Not freaking out at all, yet.

 

I will gladly take a 12 hour blizzard if thats all we get.

 

Just saying, this is model support that was never close to being there with the December event. All models agree right now on a major overrunning storm to break the tide next weekend. Not worth fixating on beyond that at this point, but you have to be optimistic for our chances. 

[GHweatherChris]

Just saying, this is model support that was never close to being there with the December event. All models agree right now on a major overrunning storm to break the tide next weekend. Not worth fixating on beyond that at this point, but you have to be optimistic for our chances. 

Ok doc,

 

Positive thoughts.

[Deweydog]

Yep. Throw in totally clear skies and I think you have a recipe for weenie disappointment. Based on the Euro, I'd say 25 would be a good call for Thursday in Portland. Maybe 27-28 in Seattle. Extremely low dewpoints though and a chance for a major nighttime freeze (9-10 territory at the airports) at the end of the week. 

 

Indeed.  Similar to the December event, offshore flow really wants to cut off pretty quickly with this, in fact turning lightly onshore by Friday.  Could lead to some ripe decoupling conditions for PDX.  

[epiceast]

Anybody start a low pressure watch yet?

[Deweydog]

Anybody start a low pressure watch yet?

 

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

[Phil]

High of 30 and sunny is brutal??? Can I post on facebook for my relatives to get a good laugh??

Careful, I got jumped on for making that comment last night.

 

Anyway the one given right now is an active wave train given the vertical disintegration of the PV (SSW), so precip won't be a problem with this one..almost guaranteed.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Screw you... I am walking around on my own while my daughter naps in the cart I am pushing.

I don't know tim in any other way but this forum. But I have gathered plenty of info on this forum over the years to know he is a great family man and the weather does not get in the way of the duty of a great parent.