February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 18z will be magical.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 00z will be better than the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm checking records for PDX, SLE, and EUG for Feb 5-8. Some of the PDX records are comical. SLE's period of record goes back to 1892 so most of their records may stand.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Record min max and record lows for selected locations Feb 5-8

Salem records will be much harder to break given their period of record has 50 years pre-1940 when good Februaries were fairly common. 

PDX

5th: 34 (1972) 9 (1989)
6th: 38 (1948) 15 (1989)
7th: 39 (1989) 21 (1982)
8th: 38 (1975 25 (1994)

SLE

5th: 28 (1899) -1 (1989)
6th: 30 (1899) 3 (1899)
7th: 36 (1929) 8 (1989)
8th: 32 (1936) 12 (1989)

EUG

5th: 30 (1989) 4 (1989)
6th: 32 (1989) 8 (1989)
7th: 33 (1989) 7 (1989)
8th: 37 (1989) 8 (1989)

Once you get past the 10th there are a lot of records lows in the 20s, even at EUG.

Historically is also seems like the late February time period and very early March is another good window for an arctic outbreak (Like 2011).

[Deweydog]

The 18z will be magical.

 

Magically warmer!

[Weather101]

Looking slim to get any kind of snow in the next 48 hrs but that always happens ! What I don't get is people complaining about a overrunning event that is a week away and overrunning events are usually are best chances of getting a decent amount of snow. I rather have a overrunning event then nothing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z = daily dud?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still cold of course, just not quite as cold as the 12z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wasn't it yesterday the 18z sucked too?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This was compiled by Chris Callais...

 

Arctic blast historical thread (SLE sounding data)
Month/Year | 850 T© | 925 T© | PDX coldest hi/lo (F)

Feb 2014 | -15 | -12 | ??/?? (estimate based off model mean forecast)
Dec 2013 | -14 | -9 | 28/12
Feb 2011 | -10 | -7 | 32/18
Nov 2010 | -12 | -9 | 30/18
Dec 2009 | -12 | -10 | 30/12
Dec 2008 | -9 | -8 | 24/20
Jan 2004 | -8 | -3 | 24/18
Dec 1998 | -18 | -13 | 24/11
Jan 1996 | -7 | -7 | 23/14
Jan 1993 | -8 | -5 | 31/22
Dec 1990 | -22 | -17 | 19/12 (coldest in SLE sounding era)
Feb 1990 | -12 | -7 | 34/20
Feb 1989 | -17 | -15 | 15/9
Nov 1985 | -11 | -9 | 25/13
Dec 1983 | -16 | -12 | 20/12
Dec 1978 | -14 | -10 | 19/13
Dec 1972 | -17 | -14 | 24/8
Dec 1968 | -10 | -6 | 14/8 (really cold in lowest 1000' AGL)

Estimates from NOAA ERL reanalysis (1948-2012)

Jan 1969 | -12 | -7 | 22/16
Nov 1955 | -16 | -12 | 25/13
Jan 1950 | -18 | -14 | 16/-3

Note: decimal values are rounded

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Magically warmer!

Yeah I was in the wrong thread talking about this to myself.

[epiceast]

http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/barometric-pressure/

it's not cold yet

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[GobBluth]

amount of moisture progged to head inland after the arctic blast is astounding.

[westiztehbest]

Looks cold then snowy.    

 

12z EMCWF 2m Temp anomaly for Friday morning:

 

 

18z GFS through 192 hours:

 

 

12z ECMWF through 240 hours (booyah!):

 

[IbrChris]

Not gonna happen.

 

This is a lot like December with the direction of the cold and low level outflow. The Fraser River stuff isn't going to be exceptional with it. Not like February 1956 or something.

 

It's a little far out, but either way I think that highs below 29-30 would be a major accomplishment with this for PDX and especially for SEA. Even then a high of 29 would be remarkable, considering that neither station has had a high that cold this late in the season since PDX did it in March 1960.  

 

Last three runs of the ECMWF have shown highs in the upper 20s at PDX. Granted those runs have averaged about 2-3c colder than the GFS at 850 mb. A couple days with highs in the 20s would not surprise me at PDX, with a bit lower odds at Seattle.

 

[Snow]

Check out this Rod Hill's forecast for PDX:

 

http://portlandweather.com/assets/images/7DayForecastTemplatePM.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yesterday he had a high of 41 on Thursday...So its a step in the right direction...I also can't speak ill of him as he claims to be a relative.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z operational likely another outlier.

 

I'm going with a EURO/GEM blend, some members of the GFS, but can't discount the Zimbabwean or Ugandan guidance too which call for 92-97 degrees. Seems outlandish. Perhaps a EURO/Zimbabwean blend..

 

Watch 18z Ensembles be like "Wait. What? how about a -16c Ensemble mean guys. Cold enough? Sorry, about the messy operational runs." Yep, I'm calling for Ensemble Mean -15c or -16c. Yesterday's 18z was off by 2-4c from the mean.... You'd think within 96 hours the 18z would even get its act together.. nope

 

I'm basing that off of I think the GFS will edge towards the EURO (-18c) and end up around -16c. My official first forecast so far of this "event" Wait, my 2nd. I said 2 or 3? days ago models would trend colder..1 for 1. 2 for 2? maybe...

[Snow]

Check this out, on the 12z GEM, it shoes a strong system heading to Northern California on Friday. Imagine if this hit us with the arctic air still in place, WOW!

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

[Snow]

Yesterday he had a high of 41 on Thursday...So its a step in the right direction...I also can't speak ill of him as he claims to be a relative.

 

It is, but I guess he doesn't want to scare the public.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The NWS spot forecast for my location gives me: Mon: 37/29 Tue: 34/26 Wed: 28/18 Thur: 25/14 Fri: 30/15 Sat: 37/26 with "Snow Likely"

[Prairiedog]

Yep. Throw in totally clear skies and I think you have a recipe for weenie disappointment. Based on the Euro, I'd say 25 would be a good call for Thursday in Portland. Maybe 27-28 in Seattle. Extremely low dewpoints though and a chance for a major nighttime freeze (9-10 territory at the airports) at the end of the week. 

I'd be surprised if PDX hits 9-10 with the wind.  If it drops off maybe.  If not then we are looking at some serious wind chills.  Single digits with wind would be pretty darn impressive here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seasonably cool 47/28 here today... Skies are clearing, if it stays that way mid-20s are a good bet here.

[van city]

Wow. Okay then. ....

That's Rob, we all like.

[GHweatherChris]

Still looking good:

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Seattle special weather statement:

WAZ001-503>519-021230-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-WEST SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES-WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-347 PM PST SAT FEB 1 2014...MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...A MARKED COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEASTTHURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AS AN AIR MASS WITH ORIGINS IN THE YUKONSPREADS INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON.THE MORE NOTABLE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BEGIN ON MONDAY ANDCONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THE COLDEST WEATHER EXPECTED AROUNDTHE MIDDLE OF LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURESWILL RUN ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. OVERTHE LOWLANDS...THIS MEANS THAT MORNING LOWS AROUND WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WHILE HIGHTEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK WILL BE COMMON.WINDY FRASER OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY ANDCONTINUE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN RESULTS IN BRISKNORTHEAST WINDS FROM SUMAS AND BELLINGHAM OUT PAST THE SAN JUANISLANDS...WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH COMMON. WIND AND COLDTEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLEDIGITS. FRASER OUTFLOW ALSO LEADS TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OVERTHE NORTHWEST OLYMPIC PENINSULA. ANOTHER WINDY LOCATION WOULD BEFROM STEVENS AND SNOQUALMIE PASSES WEST INTO THE CASCADEFOOTHILLS...WHERE GUSTY EAST WINDS COULD OCCUR AT TIMES NEXTWEEK.LASTLY...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAYEVENING TO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS WILL BE GETTINGDRIER...LIMITING THE COVERAGE OF SNOW AND KEEPING AMOUNTS QUITELIGHT.CHECK BACK THIS WEEKEND FOR UPDATES ON THE ANTICIPATED COLDWEATHER NEXT WEEK.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles. A touch warmer, a whopping 1c different. Mean temp is at -14c pretty cold. Unsure if this is any kind of trend. I'd stick with the bone chilling EURO it has been more consistent.

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Gradient Keeper]

Still looking good:

18z.png

Mean temp about -16c... fancy stuff

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[BLI snowman]

37/25 at BLI today. Nice way to ring in the month. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

37/25 at BLI today. Nice way to ring in the month. 

 

Solid.

[Gradient Keeper]

37/25 at BLI today. Nice way to ring in the month. 

Not bad. I haven't checked Mesowest pages today. What are the dp's running up there?

[BLI snowman]

Not bad. I haven't checked Mesowest pages today. What are the dp's running up there?

 

Mid 20s at the airport, a little higher here in town. 

[Gradient Keeper]

amount of moisture progged to head inland after the arctic blast is astounding.

It is, and models are quite consistent with that arriving Friday or so. Someone may get a major snow or ice storm.

[stuffradio]

Check this out, on the 12z GEM, it shoes a strong system heading to Northern California on Friday. Imagine if this hit us with the arctic air still in place, WOW!

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/P6_GZ_D5_PN_156_0000.gif

I don't like the trend of everything going to Oregon leaving us high and dry.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don't like the trend of everything going to Oregon leaving us high and dry.

That is actually a better path if you want it to stay cold/cooler longer. Also, Better than the rain to snow deluge that would turn into if it hit you directly. As it would result in a rapid warm up and any snow you did get would be gone or unusable/playable in less than 12 hours (if not sooner). NOW, with that being said, I highly doubt it will go that far south as I do think a mid-Oregon path will be about as far south as this goes. These babies almost always veer north (key here is almost always). If this is the case you will get your wish of a snow to rain transition. Enjoy and get out fast to play in it as it won't last long. Then we go warmer and hope for a reload of cold.  The good news is we look to have a bunch of sunny cold days to go play in.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z NAM in 1 hour!

00z GFS in 3 hours!

00z GEM in 3 hours!

00z EURO in 6 hours!(begins in 5 hours 15 minutes)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Rapid cooling this evening. Already down to 32.

[Brennan]

Hiked up to Lookout Mt today. The top is above 2,500 feet, and there was close to 3 inches of snow. We hit snow at about 1,500 feet which to be honest I wasn’t expecting at all when we began. 

http://images.summitpost.org/original/257439.jpg

We ended where the blue and red lines meet. More pictures to come from the top. Unfortunately from the time we started to the time we got to the top for sunrise, the sky went from crystal clear to overcast.