richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 - Sometimes referred to as a more Central Pacific focused El Nino—if more where considering its more positive phase. .. This ENSO related phenomenon looked at more in particularly was brought up recently in the main "California Climate" thread, main "The West" section, by "Black Hole" (one of the main Staff here.) .. in line with the idea of its potential connection to, and even more its perhaps being the main driving element behind the current California drought condition. This may be behind the drought:http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki home s.html.enWith this idea, and its having been responded to, with additionally having generated some amount of discussion, I've thought to start a thread dedicated more specifically, to it.— And, in addition to the quotation above, I'll be working to include others of posts part of the discussion that I've mention here above, toward the idea of prefacing more discussion about the phenomenon. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 This may be behind the drought: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki home s.html.en Interesting. In the Western U.S. at least, the recent observed conditions certainly seem to match up to those predicted for this "El Niño Modoki" pattern. This article isn't terribly comprehensive, and the data it references seem pretty spotty. It covers only up to about mid-2013, which is about when the weather really started to go haywire around here. I'd be curious to know more details, such as whether current SST observations fit the Modoki pattern, and whether the current temperature and rainfall conditions in Japan and China are also matching up to the Modoki pattern predictions. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Interesting. In the Western U.S. at least, the recent observed conditions certainly seem to match up to those predicted for this "El Niño Modoki" pattern. .... The current Pacific Pattern is indeed an El Nino Modoki and I believe it explains at least a part of this winters weather. Apparently the time scale is a little bit longer than normal ENSO stuff, and there is also a negative version of it. Anyway, something to think about. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 I'm very far from a long range forecast proponent, but everything I've read about Mokoki Nino's and their longer time scale and persistent patterns points toward next Winter more than likely being warm and dry in the West and cold in the East again. Cue the 1950 redux? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 It really is quite unfortunate but I agree. The odds are in favor of continuing drought for the next few years. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Do you know the last time we were stuck in an El Nino Modoki pattern such as this one? Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Offhand, no. But I would say we could look at the big droughts of the past and cross check ENSO for starters. Lets look into it. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Sounds like a good idea to me. I am wondering if the late 1980's early 90's drought may have been related to this at least in the early stages. 1986-87 and 1987-88 were two El Nino years that were drier than the average El Nino and I don't believe 1986-87 was a weak event, either. It seems that I read somewhere a while back that the warm water stayed in the central Pacific during the 86-87 event, which means that it very well could have been a Modoki event. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted March 18, 2015 Offhand, no. But I would say we could look at the big droughts of the past and cross check ENSO for starters. Lets look into it.Modoki's are also called Central Pacific El Niño's. This is from Wikipedia: Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–1988, 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2004–2005 and 2009–2010.69 Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59,70 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80.7172 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El Niño#The .22Modoki.22 or Central-Pacific El Ni.C3.B1o Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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