February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

All Global Models have been honing in on a possible major winter storm that looks to hit somewhere in the Plains/Midwest/OV Region.  Could this be the biggest storm to hit the area yet this year???  Will the projected SE Ridge flex its muscles and take this system on a more northwesterly track???  Lot's of details to be ironed out.  Discuss...

[East Dubzz]

Dramatic start to the thread. Really gets me pumped up for a storm that will likely miss me! Lol.

[tim the weatherman]

yes if we do get the southeast ridge and if it does flex it's muscles than chicago will be in for it and this storm can be shifted 50 to 100 miles nw.

[Tom]

Anyway to spice it up East Dubzz...hahaha

[bud2380]

I sure hope this shifts nw. Still a long time for it to but I would like to start seeing a significant shift in the next 24 hours or so or I may lose some hope.

[winterfreak]

Yeah this is going to be torture. Need it to shift more to the NW soon

[East Dubzz]

What will really upset me... If that high pressure really is that strong, surpresses the storm, then brings more brutal cold air!

 

Does anyone have the predicted AO/NAO/PNA indexes?

[East Dubzz]

What will really upset me... If that high pressure really is that strong, surpresses the storm, then brings more brutal cold air!

 

Does anyone have the predicted AO/NAO/PNA indexes?

[Tom]

Just checked the indexes and AO slightly negative, NAO near neutral, GFS PNA around -2.0, Euro PNA -1.0.  The WPO will be in the tank more than -3.0 (this kind of concerns me as it may offset -PNA).  Time will tell and see how strong and where that High Pressure off the east coast develops.  Euro Ensembles keep it closer to the coast which would benefit a lot of us.

[james1976]

Euro way south yet i assume

[East Dubzz]

I was just about to ask that, Tom. The AO/NAO/PNA all seem in our favor, but I guess a strong negative WPO could hurt us as well. Wasn't that a factor in our first polar plunge?

[Tom]

A deep negative WPO would suggest a stronger eastern trough so this may be our dagger.  Looks like some major cold is brewing just north of the border around this time period so I'd hate to see this get suppressed.  Hoping that in future runs that SE Ridge beefs up a bit.

[Money]

"euro ens look pretty close to the OP maybe a bit nw...looks like track from AL to WV with a secondary over western SC....not sure if it's doing a double-barreled thing or showing a transfer."

 

From American

[Tony]

Preliminary reports on 18z GFS saying it is coming nw in its early stages. Lets see how far it can go.

[Niko]

Models are pushing this storm further south. I'd rather not be in the bullseye a week away, thats for sure. Chances are it will come more NW. There is no blocking, so hopefully its a cutter. If this materializes...than, itwill bury the midwest. Hope for the best. Still plenty of time.

[Tom]

Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...

 

[gosaints]

Closest to a negative title through we have seen all winter. This thing could literally track anywhere

[Tom]

18z GFS shows a huge swath of 12"+ (total from all systems) from KS/N MO/IL/N IN/S MI...would like it to see it amp up some more into a defined SLP.  This run it looks like a moisture laden elongated wave.

 

 

 

[Tony]

Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...

Yep, close to low end warning snows on this run...baby stepping to the NW

 

Lehs on this runs as well

[Tom]

This storm has everything going for it to be a doozy...I would expect GGEM/EURO to come NW for tonights 00z runs.

[Tom]

18z GFS showing another major storm right on its heals 2-3 days later hitting same areas...

[tim the weatherman]

great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzard

[Andrew NE]

^LOL I don't even want to know what this man is going to do if CHI doesn't get a Blizzard soon!

[james1976]

great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzard

i love this guy.

[Sciascia]

And I thought I was the optimistic one, haha. But hey, who knows what this could become? Maybe blizzard, maybe just a 3-6 event. Thundersnow is a very rare occurrence that doesn't come with every snowstorm. That's part of the reason the GHD is so special, especially because it happened twice!

 

I am optimistic that this could turn out to be big for this area.

[Scott26]

great news and poss thundersnow and a full blown blizzard

lock it in lol

[winterfreak]

Look to be in a bit better spot now.

[Money]

18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol  3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs.

 

Basically what you expect 150+ hours out

 

What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles 

[Sciascia]

The period of time between the 18z GFS & the 0z NAM always feel longer than 3+ hours when there's stuff to track.

[Scott26]

18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol  3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs.

 

Basically what you expect 150+ hours out

 

What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles 

For this to really be a monster we probably need a phase with the northern stream. It looks like the 18Z OP was trying to do that, but was a near miss. Also the SE ridge is likely underplayed on the models at this point. If we indeed have a -PNA no way this storm is going to be a OV or a east coast storm. Looks like the models today show less dominant high pressure over the area which was also why we have had a NW shift today. At this point it's almost like pulling a name out of a hat. We will have a much better idea by this weekend.

[Money]

The period of time between the 18z GFS & the 0z NAM always feel longer than 3+ hours when there's stuff to track.

 

Yes it does lol. 

[gabel23]

Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...

I'll take that with just about another 50 miles to the NW served with a topping of a Negative tilted trough please. WIth how crappy it has been in my area I would be happy with one monster of a blizzard; way long time to go though until this event unfolds. 

[Geos]

The +NAO, warm phase of the MJO, and negative PNA should allow this to curve northwards. - Overwhelming the WPO signal. 

 

I'm not worried about this heading so far south it misses this area completely. 

[bud2380]

Here is the FIM for what it's worth.  Looks similar to the Canadian.

 

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim_jet/2014012912/236/totp_24h_f168.png

[Tony]

Just by the early looks of things GFS seems to be coming north

[Money]

Same track, a tad weaker.

 

Still 4-6 for Chicago/E. IA and S. WI

[Money]

14-18 inches of snow total for Chicago through HR 150 with all 2 systems combined.

[East Dubzz]

Okay, so the actual SLP was further east, but ULL was further NW, which is why there are decent snows up here. There was a situation similar to this early in the year. In fact, I think that's the storm that gave me a Winter Storm Warning.

[Money]

GGEM HR 144

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

[Money]

Might not get the big dog, but both GFS/GGEM show WI/IL/IA getting at least a couple inches from this even with a track that far east.