Jump to content

February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm


Tom

Recommended Posts

All Global Models have been honing in on a possible major winter storm that looks to hit somewhere in the Plains/Midwest/OV Region.  Could this be the biggest storm to hit the area yet this year???  Will the projected SE Ridge flex its muscles and take this system on a more northwesterly track???  Lot's of details to be ironed out.  Discuss...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just checked the indexes and AO slightly negative, NAO near neutral, GFS PNA around -2.0, Euro PNA -1.0.  The WPO will be in the tank more than -3.0 (this kind of concerns me as it may offset -PNA).  Time will tell and see how strong and where that High Pressure off the east coast develops.  Euro Ensembles keep it closer to the coast which would benefit a lot of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A deep negative WPO would suggest a stronger eastern trough so this may be our dagger.  Looks like some major cold is brewing just north of the border around this time period so I'd hate to see this get suppressed.  Hoping that in future runs that SE Ridge beefs up a bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Models are pushing this storm further south. I'd rather not be in the bullseye a week away, thats for sure. Chances are it will come more NW. There is no blocking, so hopefully its a cutter. If this materializes...than, itwill bury the midwest. Hope for the best. Still plenty of time.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS shows a huge swath of 12"+ (total from all systems) from KS/N MO/IL/N IN/S MI...would like it to see it amp up some more into a defined SLP.  This run it looks like a moisture laden elongated wave.

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And I thought I was the optimistic one, haha. But hey, who knows what this could become? Maybe blizzard, maybe just a 3-6 event. Thundersnow is a very rare occurrence that doesn't come with every snowstorm. That's part of the reason the GHD is so special, especially because it happened twice!

 

I am optimistic that this could turn out to be big for this area.

...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol  3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs.

 

Basically what you expect 150+ hours out

 

What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z GFS ensembles are mostly inline with the 18z OP. One takes the low right over Chicago lol  3 don't have the storm or are way weak and SE and the rest are similar or a tad east of the OP gfs.

 

Basically what you expect 150+ hours out

 

What is dif. is that its farther nw than 12z ensembles 

For this to really be a monster we probably need a phase with the northern stream. It looks like the 18Z OP was trying to do that, but was a near miss. Also the SE ridge is likely underplayed on the models at this point. If we indeed have a -PNA no way this storm is going to be a OV or a east coast storm. Looks like the models today show less dominant high pressure over the area which was also why we have had a NW shift today. At this point it's almost like pulling a name out of a hat. We will have a much better idea by this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Huge step NW...probably biggest shift yet...

I'll take that with just about another 50 miles to the NW served with a topping of a Negative tilted trough please. WIth how crappy it has been in my area I would be happy with one monster of a blizzard; way long time to go though until this event unfolds. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The +NAO, warm phase of the MJO, and negative PNA should allow this to curve northwards. - Overwhelming the WPO signal. 

 

I'm not worried about this heading so far south it misses this area completely. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...