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February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm


Tom

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Wrong thread!

 

I realized that. Anyway, I can't separate out the maps to just show this system.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Yup. GFS/ECMWF went from nothing to about 4-6 inches on GFS and 6+ on the euro (just south of chicago) 

 

All about trends. Still 144+ hours out and nothing is fully sampled yet. We've seen it before where models lose the big bombs in the medium range only to bring them back a few days before the storm as well.

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+1 Money, the GFS does that all the time I notice in the medium range when in the long range it had a big time storm.  It has done that all year long with arctic outbreaks as well only to loose them in the medium range before bringing it back.  I'd like to see what the GGEM was showing a few days back...absolute bomb of a GL Cutter.

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GFS starting to show a nice comma shape and healthy looking defo band which leads me to believe that future runs may become even better.  This storm is showing signs of having it all...wind, heavy snow and LehS. Temps on 12z GFS run showed low 20's and a howling NE wind off the lake for about 24 hours.

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