February 4-5th Possible Major Winter Storm

[Geos]

Okay. Not bad looks like a wide swath of 6-9 inches from NE to MI with this.

 

Wide band.

 

[Money]

And as long as the track doesn't come too far north, should be some pretty nice ratios considering 850 mb temps are -10 to -15 and 2M temps are about 15-20 degrees. 

[DominicR]

Yeah ratios look good even down here. You can prob add double to snow totals with QPF assuming mainly 20:1 ratio.

[Snowshoe]

Okay. Not bad looks like a wide swath of 6-9 inches from NE to MI with this.

 

That doesn't look like it includes today's snow, correct?

[Tom]

Think about how big the models had this storm 10 days out and how much moisture they were spitting out.  Now the models are picking up better data and you can see where the potential for this storm can be.  I'm thinking this will be the biggest storm to hit the country and effecting millions of people.

[jaster220]

Nebraska is looking good!!! GFS has us over a foot of snow by the time this storm rolls around. So excited!!!

 

I'm excited for ya too NEwx! Been 3 yrs before this Jan waiting for a Warned event. Hoping this comes through for ya the way its looking! Cheers!

[DominicR]

That doesn't look like it includes today's snow, correct?

Yes it does not include today and Sat event here.

[Money]

Think about how big the models had this storm 10 days out and how much moisture they were spitting out.  Now the models are picking up better data and you can see where the potential for this storm can be.  I'm thinking this will be the biggest storm to hit the country and effecting millions of people.

 

Yeah, models are good for having huge storms hit days out and then once it gets to that medium range they lose it and then bring it back to what it once was once it gets better data again etc. Sometimes, the models don't get the proper data needed, where it goes in places that don't really get sampled. 

 

I think this thing has a swath of 10-12+ once we get closer to the event and everything gets sampled. 

[Money]

From a poster on American:

 

The gfs has major handling issues.

 

Because it's the only guidance that crushed the NEPAC ridge as this system dives down the backside.  So it ejects much futher North than every other piece of guidance and it's own ensembles.

 

The big change occurred at 06Z when the Heights were dramatically lower over the ridge out West. 

 

The other models don't show anything like this.

 

So for the folks who are freaking out don't worry.

 

 

Just something to keep an eye on.

[Tony]

From a poster on American:

 

The gfs has major handling issues.

 

Because it's the only guidance that crushed the NEPAC ridge as this system dives down the backside.  So it ejects much futher North than every other piece of guidance and it's own ensembles.

 

The big change occurred at 06Z when the Heights were dramatically lower over the ridge out West. 

 

The other models don't show anything like this.

 

So for the folks who are freaking out don't worry.

 

 

Just something to keep an eye on.

It also needs to be stated that there are some who do not agree with this.

[The Snowman]

Made a new blog post on this storm with my latest thoughts. Lots of solid evidence for those of you wanting a N-ward shift: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/01/february-4-6-potentially-significant_30.html

[FV-Mike]

very nice write up

[james1976]

great write up. man i hope this thing comes more north.

[winterfreak]

Man it's dead in here lol. Kind of makes sense given tomorrow night's snow for you folks.

[Tom]

Bill Bellis just showed a snow fall map heading out thru Tuesday and it showed IA/ L/WI in the heaviest snow band for this system.  He was saying that we could get round #2 with same accumulations.  I think GFS is coming in better this run.

[winterfreak]

Looks like the GFS is weak sauce this run.

[jcwxguy]

it was good to us in nebraska  

[Money]

GGEM

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[Tom]

Wrong storm Geo's!  Too many storms to track, huh?

[Geos]

Wrong storm Geo's!  Too many storms to track, huh?

 

Yes!

GFS kind of lost on this run. Best snows from western KS to central Iowa.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014013100&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

[The Snowman]

very nice write up

 

 

great write up. man i hope this thing comes more north.

 

Thanks much; while obviously we can't predict what the storm will do at this very moment, it helps to know the little tips and tricks about the models, the MJO, PNA, etc.

 

Also (this is something I didn't put in my post), the ECMWF and its ensembles tend to have a bias to predict the PNA to be more positive than it actually ends up being. Bodes well for us and the northern track.

[Tom]

00z GGEM...

 

[Jaycee]

00z GGEM...

Soooo wait... do we get completely missed by the GGEM?! There's no way.

 

 

EDIT: My god, that is a monster Colorado Low at 192 hr!!!

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/P6_GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

[Tom]

00z GGEM Precip...

 

 

[DominicR]

00z GGEM Precip...

 

So assuming about half this event Sat and other Tues? Man GFS sucks.

[Tom]

Be patient buddy, let all the pieces to the puzzle come together....

[winterfreak]

Yeah GFS is no good. I actually find the qpf outputs kind of odd at first glance.

[Money]

Euro sure looks good through 96....

[Money]

Nevermind lol it looked better but a stronger high moved in than 12z and it ejected the low farther southeast. Just a lil bit SE of 12z and less qpf in the cold sector.

 

Meh 0z runs. Still 120+ hours out.

[DominicR]

At least I'd still get advisory level snows.

[DominicR]

GFS much stronger and a large swath of 6-12 inches for most of us and some foot amounts in C IL.

[james1976]

GFS much stronger and a large swath of 6-12 inches for most of us and some foot amounts in C IL.

this is just for the big storm right? the tue-wed event?

[james1976]

what did euro show?

[DominicR]

what did euro show?

 

It was weak and SE.

[DominicR]

this is just for the big storm right? the tue-wed event?

 

Yeah.

[Money]

12z GFS with widespread 6-12 across pretty much this entire sub-forum.

[Money]

Between the two systems combine, Chicago gets about 18-22 inches on this run (Sat system and this)

[DominicR]

Tuesday system wow (not combining Sat wave) 48hr period...

[East Dubzz]

Nice run. Man I hope the GFS is onto something.

[Money]

It looked like it was close to going neg tilt this run.  Def baby steps in the right direction. Let's see if the other models follow suit. GFS has always been the farthest NW so far, and that's interesting. It's usually the most suppressed model.