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4/1 - 4/12 Severe Weather Threat


Tom

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Yes Tom, first real threat.  Could use a good rain with this as we have been in red flag warnings for weeks it seems.  Here is what NWS Hastings put out this morning.  Could get interesting on Wed. afternoon and evening.

 

FileL.png

 

 

 

The warm weather will continue again today, as afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. However, the bigger weather story will be the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. At this time, it appears locations across north central Kansas, as well as portions of south central Nebraska generally along and east of a line from Alma, to Kearney and Greeley, stand a chance at observing hail up to the size of ping pong balls, as well as thunderstorm wind gusts to around 60 MPH. This marks the first potential severe weather episode of the season, so now is the time to review your severe weather plan and remember, always stay...weather aware!

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10410957_365485340305455_676408792147071

 

 

I think this is the RPM model? Not entirely sure, but it looks like a hefty squall line will form and move ESE and clobber most of Eastern Nebraska. Tornadoes are looking most likely in NE Nebraska where initiation will occur. Pretty excited, hopefully we can get a severe warned storm in Lincoln, our dome has been very powerful lately. 

 

 

EDIT: It's the NMM model. Really hammers us with heavy rain

 

http://weather.graphics/meso/2015033112/iowa/wrf_ref_nmm_iowa_41.png

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Thursday is when I will be keeping an eye on the sky for some thunderstorms. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Dews are around 51

Is that on your weather station?

 

The Lincoln airport is at 47 and was steady at 11am and 12pm.

 

Here's a link to a mesoanalysis of surface obs in the central plains. You have to go to central Kansas to get to 50 degree dewpoints, and to get to anything above 55 for a dewpoint you have to go to the KS/OK border.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14#

 

We're not going to get to 55-60 for dewpoints.

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Is that on your weather station?

 

The Lincoln airport is at 47 and was steady at 11am and 12pm.

 

Here's a link to a mesoanalysis of surface obs in the central plains. You have to go to central Kansas to get to 50 degree dewpoints, and to get to anything above 55 for a dewpoint you have to go to the KS/OK border.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14#

 

We're not going to get to 55-60 for dewpoints.

I'm calling bust. Rapid refresh is horrible and it feels dry almost. Doubt we see any severe wx in lincoln, hope I'm wrong.

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meaured 1.25" IMBY. Actually thought it would be a bit more this morning when I woke up as the small lake that forms in our backyard whenever it rains a lot had appeared for the first time this season. Stupid neighbor lady whose yard backs to our house, built up her landscaping/mulch so high that the water has nowhere to go except sit there back by the fence we share :angry: It's been dry enough that I figured it would take more rain than that to sit there.

Anyway, no severe weather here. Lightning was amazing out to the west and I sat at home watching and watching it as the line slowly moved east. I finally went out to go get some lightning pics, but of course the forked lightning basically quit and all there was, was sheet lightning and it started raining about 15 minutes after I found my spot. Always wait too long to go out for pics!!

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There didn't appear to be a lot of severe weather, but it was nice to see a solid line of storms moving through eastern NE and western IA for the first time this season.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z 4km NAM showing a line getting organized over IL tomorrow afternoon.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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12z 4km NAM showing a line getting organized over IL tomorrow afternoon.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015040812/nam4km_ref_ncus_11.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015040812/nam4km_ref_ncus_12.png

This storm set-up reminds me of the early November outbreak 2 years ago.  Very similar track of the SLP which produce numerous tornado's in IL.

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This storm set-up reminds me of the early November outbreak 2 years ago.  Very similar track of the SLP which produce numerous tornado's in IL.

 

I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. 

Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. 

Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only.

I'm kinda jealous if you guys get hit with some decent storms.  It's been sunny and dry out here and I'm ready for a Thunderstorm!  Can't complain though.

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I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. 

Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only.

You better believe that the warm front will blast north of our region. The strength of the low won't allow the warm front to stall south of the CWA.
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...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...
MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DEEPER/RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AND CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY
BE ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THURSDAY...IT
ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW PRESENT ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS...AMONG
OTHERS...MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS TO A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIVE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS PERIOD.

STILL...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER
FLOW/SHEAR...INCLUDING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KT SOUTH
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DURING THE DAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD YIELD
SCATTERED AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE AREAS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...
DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COULD DEVELOP NEAR
THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS CONCERNING COVERAGE
AND AREA TO SUPPORT 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

 

Large 45% enhanced risk 

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1428514851137

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4km NAM bringing squall line in NE IL and far SE WI mid afternoon.

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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In the end, how tomorrow ends up playing out is based on how well we recover from tonight's convection. If we can get some sunshine and build some instability tomorrow this can turn out to be a significant severe weather outbreak for Illinois and surrounding regions. I wouldn't worry about the warm front not coming north enough. Like Maxim said the strengthening system will force the warm front to the north with it likely reaching southern Wisconsin.

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It's all going to come down to the mesoscale factors. The set-up is pretty much as synoptically perfect as it gets, but it can be muddled by tonight's convection. If we get enough sunshine before storms fire late afternoon tomorrow then watch out!

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A low rumbling with some rain here now. Don't see any lightning though.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Some isolated severe storms have popped up in N IL...small hail producing storms..

 

 

 

Severe Thunderstorm WarningSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC031-090715-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0007.150409T0540Z-150409T0715Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1240 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 215 AM CDT

* AT 1240 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GOODINGS
GROVE...OR OVER HOMER GLEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICAGO...CICERO...ORLAND PARK...TINLEY PARK...OAK LAWN...BERWYN...
BLUE ISLAND...ALSIP...LEMONT...MIDLOTHIAN...JUSTICE...CHATHAM...
SUMMIT...WORTH...LYONS...STICKNEY...POSEN...WILLOW SPRINGS...MIDWAY
AIRPORT AND MEIGS FIELD.
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Had some thunderstorms over night and still ongoing right now. Not a lot of lightning, no hail that I saw. So far it's a cool day still with winds from the east.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Back IMBY, training thunderstorms have issued a Flood Advisory....

 

 

 

Flood AdvisoryFLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

ILC031-043-089-097-091815-
/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.Y.0003.150409T1522Z-150409T1815Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
COOK IL-KANE IL-LAKE IL-DUPAGE IL-
1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 115 PM CDT

* AT 1022 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OBSERVATIONS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR IN LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREA.
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