Tom Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Will this be the first real severe weather threat of the season out in the Plains??? Models are suggesting E NE/W IA to be the primary target zone. Let's discuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Yes Tom, first real threat. Could use a good rain with this as we have been in red flag warnings for weeks it seems. Here is what NWS Hastings put out this morning. Could get interesting on Wed. afternoon and evening. The warm weather will continue again today, as afternoon temperatures climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. However, the bigger weather story will be the potential for severe weather on Wednesday. At this time, it appears locations across north central Kansas, as well as portions of south central Nebraska generally along and east of a line from Alma, to Kearney and Greeley, stand a chance at observing hail up to the size of ping pong balls, as well as thunderstorm wind gusts to around 60 MPH. This marks the first potential severe weather episode of the season, so now is the time to review your severe weather plan and remember, always stay...weather aware! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 I think this is the RPM model? Not entirely sure, but it looks like a hefty squall line will form and move ESE and clobber most of Eastern Nebraska. Tornadoes are looking most likely in NE Nebraska where initiation will occur. Pretty excited, hopefully we can get a severe warned storm in Lincoln, our dome has been very powerful lately. EDIT: It's the NMM model. Really hammers us with heavy rain http://weather.graphics/meso/2015033112/iowa/wrf_ref_nmm_iowa_41.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Bring on the storms! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Thursday is when I will be keeping an eye on the sky for some thunderstorms. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 I'm thinking heavy rain and maybe some hail/wind producing storms, but not a lot of reports. Shear is a little on the weaker side. Still can't complain as it will be in the 80s today and then thunderstorms tonight! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 dewpoints were only in the 30s this morning, have a pretty good feeling there is no way they get into the 55-60 degree range. SPC mentions this and lower instability along with weaker shear means probably not a lot of severe weather tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 dewpoints were only in the 30s this morning, have a pretty good feeling there is no way they get into the 55-60 degree range. SPC mentions this and lower instability along with weaker shear means probably not a lot of severe weather tonightDews are around 51 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Dews are around 51Is that on your weather station? The Lincoln airport is at 47 and was steady at 11am and 12pm. Here's a link to a mesoanalysis of surface obs in the central plains. You have to go to central Kansas to get to 50 degree dewpoints, and to get to anything above 55 for a dewpoint you have to go to the KS/OK border.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14# We're not going to get to 55-60 for dewpoints. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Is that on your weather station? The Lincoln airport is at 47 and was steady at 11am and 12pm. Here's a link to a mesoanalysis of surface obs in the central plains. You have to go to central Kansas to get to 50 degree dewpoints, and to get to anything above 55 for a dewpoint you have to go to the KS/OK border.http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=14# We're not going to get to 55-60 for dewpoints.I'm calling bust. Rapid refresh is horrible and it feels dry almost. Doubt we see any severe wx in lincoln, hope I'm wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Holdrege is only 40 dew point at 2:30 PM, not overly optimistic. Hope I am wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 CAPE is still only up to 500-800 j/kg, when forecasts were at 2-3000. It's going to rain/storm, but the robust convection is looking less and less likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Storms starting to fire up and lining up well with the HRRR model... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 can't wait to see this dying convection enter my area <_> Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sven Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 Already gusting out with a nice little outflow, guessing 60 mph tops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 nice cell heading towards Lincoln Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 had penny size hail here, didnt last long though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 No joke, i had a near golf ball sized hailstone fall in my yard here in north lincoln! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 meaured 1.25" IMBY. Actually thought it would be a bit more this morning when I woke up as the small lake that forms in our backyard whenever it rains a lot had appeared for the first time this season. Stupid neighbor lady whose yard backs to our house, built up her landscaping/mulch so high that the water has nowhere to go except sit there back by the fence we share It's been dry enough that I figured it would take more rain than that to sit there.Anyway, no severe weather here. Lightning was amazing out to the west and I sat at home watching and watching it as the line slowly moved east. I finally went out to go get some lightning pics, but of course the forked lightning basically quit and all there was, was sheet lightning and it started raining about 15 minutes after I found my spot. Always wait too long to go out for pics!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 2, 2015 Report Share Posted April 2, 2015 There didn't appear to be a lot of severe weather, but it was nice to see a solid line of storms moving through eastern NE and western IA for the first time this season. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2015 Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 12z 4km NAM showing a line getting organized over IL tomorrow afternoon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 12z 4km NAM showing a line getting organized over IL tomorrow afternoon. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015040812/nam4km_ref_ncus_11.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2015040812/nam4km_ref_ncus_12.pngThis storm set-up reminds me of the early November outbreak 2 years ago. Very similar track of the SLP which produce numerous tornado's in IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2015 Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 This storm set-up reminds me of the early November outbreak 2 years ago. Very similar track of the SLP which produce numerous tornado's in IL. I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only.I'm kinda jealous if you guys get hit with some decent storms. It's been sunny and dry out here and I'm ready for a Thunderstorm! Can't complain though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted April 8, 2015 Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 I think the severe weather will be contained in IL. WI is too far north for this early season setup. Convection near Champaign this morning pushed the warm front way south. So the front needs a big comeback to the north, otherwise it might be a southern-central IL outbreak only.You better believe that the warm front will blast north of our region. The strength of the low won't allow the warm front to stall south of the CWA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 8, 2015 Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 ...GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...MODEL OUTPUT IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DEEPER/RICHER BOUNDARY LAYERMOISTENING MAY BE CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR INADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. AND CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAYBE ONGOING IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPIAND OHIO VALLEYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD. BY 12Z THURSDAY...ITALSO APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE CONSIDERABLE STABILIZATION OF THEBROAD AREA OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOW PRESENT ACROSS THEPLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS. THESE FACTORS...AMONGOTHERS...MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS TO A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIVESEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR THIS PERIOD.STILL...GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYERFLOW/SHEAR...INCLUDING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF 40-50 KT SOUTHSOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW DURING THE DAY...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDINGSUPERCELLS. AND POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION COULD YIELDSCATTERED AREAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OFPRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL.IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ONE OF THESE AREAS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE WARMFRONT...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW...ACROSS PARTS OFNORTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER COULD DEVELOP NEARTHE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKPLATEAU AND ARKLATEX REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.HOWEVER...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS CONCERNING COVERAGEAND AREA TO SUPPORT 10 PERCENT SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHERPROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. Large 45% enhanced risk http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.gif?1428514851137 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 8, 2015 Report Share Posted April 8, 2015 4km NAM bringing squall line in NE IL and far SE WI mid afternoon. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 In the end, how tomorrow ends up playing out is based on how well we recover from tonight's convection. If we can get some sunshine and build some instability tomorrow this can turn out to be a significant severe weather outbreak for Illinois and surrounding regions. I wouldn't worry about the warm front not coming north enough. Like Maxim said the strengthening system will force the warm front to the north with it likely reaching southern Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 It's all going to come down to the mesoscale factors. The set-up is pretty much as synoptically perfect as it gets, but it can be muddled by tonight's convection. If we get enough sunshine before storms fire late afternoon tomorrow then watch out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 A low rumbling with some rain here now. Don't see any lightning though. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Some isolated severe storms have popped up in N IL...small hail producing storms.. Severe Thunderstorm WarningSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC031-090715-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0007.150409T0540Z-150409T0715Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1240 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 215 AM CDT* AT 1240 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER GOODINGSGROVE...OR OVER HOMER GLEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...CHICAGO...CICERO...ORLAND PARK...TINLEY PARK...OAK LAWN...BERWYN...BLUE ISLAND...ALSIP...LEMONT...MIDLOTHIAN...JUSTICE...CHATHAM...SUMMIT...WORTH...LYONS...STICKNEY...POSEN...WILLOW SPRINGS...MIDWAYAIRPORT AND MEIGS FIELD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 sitting under some intense downpours right now. Nice to get some rain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Some isolated severe storms have popped up in N IL...small hail producing storms..That's the longest lasting severe tstorm warning I have ever seen. Did you notice the times? Issued at 1240 and effective until 215? That's over an hour and a half! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Had some thunderstorms over night and still ongoing right now. Not a lot of lightning, no hail that I saw. So far it's a cool day still with winds from the east. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Warm front is really starting to lift north now. Already 67/63 at KJOT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawkfan Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Well all this severe weather that was supposed to be so bad has turned out just a few brief rain showers. It's pretty mild out sun peaking out sounds like a great d a y for a outdoor BBQ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 lol seahawk fan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 9, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Back IMBY, training thunderstorms have issued a Flood Advisory.... Flood AdvisoryFLOOD ADVISORYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015ILC031-043-089-097-091815-/O.NEW.KLOT.FA.Y.0003.150409T1522Z-150409T1815Z//00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/COOK IL-KANE IL-LAKE IL-DUPAGE IL-1022 AM CDT THU APR 9 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...NORTHWESTERN COOK COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 115 PM CDT* AT 1022 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCINGTORRENTIAL RAIN OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. OBSERVATIONS OF RAINFALLAMOUNTS OF NEARLY AN INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN RECEIVED. ADDITIONALTHUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING WHICH WILLCAUSE MINOR FLOODING TO OCCUR IN LOW LAYING AND POOR DRAINAGEAREA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted April 9, 2015 Report Share Posted April 9, 2015 Well all this severe weather that was supposed to be so bad has turned out just a few brief rain showers. It's pretty mild out sun peaking out sounds like a great d a y for a outdoor BBQ.you're trolling Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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