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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The ole 73 dew point at 11 am. Better be in A/C or water today. No breeze at all. Worked outside for a little bit and my shirt and hat are soaked. Think Fall. 

#thinkseptember

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Many of the latest model runs are looking much better for rainfall this week in Iowa or my area. I hope it verifies because we’re needing more rain. Things are kinda wilting in the hot sunshine!

Today is probably the third consecutive day of hazy smoke filtered sunshine around here!

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It has already been ten days since our 2" rainfall.  I don't expect much Wednesday morning, but I hope the late-week rain pans out.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just returned from a trip to Chadron State Park and then a couple of days out in Yellowstone.

Yellowstone absolutely blew me away! Just crazy to see such a different landscape up close.

The Grand Tetons still had some snow at the summits. We also ran into a hailstorm that covered the roads and hillsides in pea sized hail and dropped the temps from 81 to 46 degrees!A3EFC30E-0BEC-452B-B335-FD7426334EEF.thumb.jpeg.88b072b1d9d7beb8a8f7ebef2a3b9aa2.jpeg1960E109-DB64-49FB-A5C6-902C18C9F8B1.thumb.jpeg.18269e13d0e71f682670569be0f6284f.jpegBF625E1D-1084-45D6-AAAC-66445E76CEAF.thumb.jpeg.f0c6bc462785322c7bfbdafc1d68e56b.jpegD8C5C5C5-7E48-4E75-A398-162DEADD66A5.thumb.jpeg.e9f17ea84263984e6a385a503a430a2d.jpeg46C009F9-31AA-4FA6-9A11-4F64C5F265E4.thumb.jpeg.d5d99b45d8874269df9dfa8e977203fc.jpeg21296A9E-0C30-45EB-8A06-D3EF5D519EFC.thumb.jpeg.357bcc2ae356c9f65396b7d281ae8c4f.jpegB2634B80-CED4-4FDE-AD84-0AB670366626.thumb.jpeg.a3f5575d2ebfe095738d25b5e9f7203c.jpegC55CD1C4-EF1B-4346-8E1C-462486EA8F7C.thumb.jpeg.8e8c2e2a9a9279d2218343ca2febf276.jpeg

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It's a very warm and muggy morning 77F/68F with a slight breeze as daylight begins to emerge.  This has to be the warmest overnight temps of the season.  Heading up into the low 90's again today and could be a while till we see any more 90's again.

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The Monsoonal rains finally made it into the valley of the sun over the weekend on the 3rd.  My place out west received about .50" of rain while others near an 1" but Sky Harbor only picked up .26" but was a record for the day.  More Heat building later this week out west which will drive our wx pattern late this week into the weekend.  Another slow moving cut-off low will fire up some severe wx and heavy rains for the MW.

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I just returned from a trip to Chadron State Park and then a couple of days out in Yellowstone.

Yellowstone absolutely blew me away! Just crazy to see such a different landscape up close.

The Grand Tetons still had some snow at the summits. We also ran into a hailstorm that covered the roads and hillsides in pea sized hail and dropped the temps from 81 to 46 degrees!A3EFC30E-0BEC-452B-B335-FD7426334EEF.thumb.jpeg.88b072b1d9d7beb8a8f7ebef2a3b9aa2.jpeg1960E109-DB64-49FB-A5C6-902C18C9F8B1.thumb.jpeg.18269e13d0e71f682670569be0f6284f.jpegBF625E1D-1084-45D6-AAAC-66445E76CEAF.thumb.jpeg.f0c6bc462785322c7bfbdafc1d68e56b.jpegD8C5C5C5-7E48-4E75-A398-162DEADD66A5.thumb.jpeg.e9f17ea84263984e6a385a503a430a2d.jpeg46C009F9-31AA-4FA6-9A11-4F64C5F265E4.thumb.jpeg.d5d99b45d8874269df9dfa8e977203fc.jpeg21296A9E-0C30-45EB-8A06-D3EF5D519EFC.thumb.jpeg.357bcc2ae356c9f65396b7d281ae8c4f.jpegB2634B80-CED4-4FDE-AD84-0AB670366626.thumb.jpeg.a3f5575d2ebfe095738d25b5e9f7203c.jpegC55CD1C4-EF1B-4346-8E1C-462486EA8F7C.thumb.jpeg.8e8c2e2a9a9279d2218343ca2febf276.jpeg

Awesome photos! Have you ever hiked the trail leading down to the Lower Falls in the bottom photo? I have twice in my life, but not since 1995 being the last time, so it’s about time I do it again! It’s amazing being right above and beside those falls and seeing it plunge 300’ and hearing the roar! That was the highlight of Yellowstone to me. The Upper Falls are decent as well.

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At 8AM in Key West FL the wind was SE at 35 with gust to 46. The temperature was 77 with a DP of 76 with rain falling. The wind has been gusting over 40 MPH now for over 6 hours. While not a hurricane at this time  Elsa is letting her presence known.

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I'm concerned the Friday MCS activity will dive south of my area, just like the last big event.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Went to Bismarck, ND with my girlfriend over the long weekend to visit her parents. She grew up there so she showed me around. I've never been there. Cool city!

On Saturday we went out to the badlands in far western ND. Pretty amazing out there. Saw a lot of bison, wild horses and even an antelope. Very hot and dry out there. At one point we reached 104° with only 15% humidity. 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm concerned the Friday MCS activity will dive south of my area, just like the last big event.

The GFS just pushed everything even farther south at the end of the week, pretty much has nothing around here.  SOB.  🤬

The GFS was one of the first models to correctly push everything south last time.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS just pushed everything even farther south at the end of the week, pretty much has nothing around here.  SOB.  🤬

The GFS was one of the first models to correctly push everything south last time.

Wow this looks familiar, man I hope some of that trends back north!

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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The Canadian and UK have the heavy rain across Iowa, but those models did the same thing last time and were very wrong.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Earlier many models were showing much of the heavier stuff missing mostly further north than the last event a few weeks ago so I was hopeful we should be good if it shifts south, but it’s shifting to far, and maybe the late week event wasn’t totally included when I checked it.

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July indeed has started hot and dry.

Not a drop of rain in July (not that I need any yet). But it has been scorching heat, humidity  and sun the first 6 days of July.

5 straight  days of 90f plus. Highest dewpoint  was Monday  at 79f.

So 15 days above 90F all since June 1st

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The Euro has been holding steady on the idea of a lead line of storms to form out in IA on Fri into Sat am.  Last night's 0z Euro/EPS showing this potential pretty clearly.

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0z Euro...what's interesting about this system over the weekend is the fact that the models show a linear convective area forming right over the center of the 500mb vortex.  

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Friday night boomers for KC/N MO???  Big time CAPE showing up...#juice

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No rain here overnight although there was lightning to the north last night. The overnight low here was a warm 71 and that is the current temperature here with the DP at 67 that is a little lower then most of yesterday and it makes a difference as it feels nice out this morning. The official high for the month at Grand Rapids so far is 89 and so far this summer GR has had 2 90° days (officially) At Muskegon the high for July so far is 86 and for the season 89. At Kalamazoo the high so far this month is 90 and they have recorded 8 days of 90 or better. At Holland the high so far this July is 88 and the high for the season so far is 89. To the east at Lansing the high so far this month is 91 for the season the high so far has been 94 and they now have had 7 days of 90 or better. You can see the influence that Lake Michigan has on summer temperatures.

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I have thunderstorms possible today as a cold front moves through.  Not a lot of rain anticipated but some cooler refreshing air will take over for a day.  The GFS continues to show excessive rainfall this weekend for many areas that don't need it.

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have thunderstorms possible today as a cold front moves through.  Not a lot of rain anticipated but some cooler refreshing air will take over for a day.  The GFS continues to show excessive rainfall this weekend for many areas that don't need it.

Same here.

 

I’m afraid much of the late week event could miss to the sw. of here. Some of the models are showing that and have shifted south again. 

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Same here.

 

I’m afraid much of the late week event could miss to the sw. of here. Some of the models are showing that and have shifted south again. 

What's even scarier is how similar the precipitation maps for this weekend look compared to what happened last weekend.

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Enough rain around here that irrigation systems have been turned off again. This is almost unheard of in July. More storms Friday night into Saturday could be an MCS moving Southeast through the area. What we don’t need is a hailstorm. The corn and soybeans look incredible. Corn just started tasseling today. My brother in law says his crops look the best that he can ever remember. 

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