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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Just now, james1976 said:

Did fall just arrive? Low gray clouds with a north breeze and only 64°. Love it.

Picked up 0.18" today from occasional showers.

Definitely didn't feel like July here yesterday. Actually had to put on a light sweatshirt to feel comfortable outside at 4pm.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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A nice little cell earlier this evening was right on my doorstep, but sadly just  passed under 1 mile south again. Could hear the downpour where up to 1” fell two miles south with only a trace here, though had .03” from a previous shower.  There was a little thunder at times.ED3E3494-962A-4B21-B45F-B754102F247E.thumb.jpeg.7e1aa21e1fef25839aaad6461df84c07.jpegFC08F56B-2F40-4C57-86D0-587EFA90FC40.thumb.jpeg.6140fd3c945960672e64ad502257fcf1.jpeg9F451506-5CCB-4448-B4C9-9BAD657DFD73.thumb.jpeg.06243de8050e05ca325726a1427b3f68.jpeg

For some reason this site doesn’t let me upload any panoramic photos anymore. 

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7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Did fall just arrive? Low gray clouds with a north breeze and only 64°. Love it.

Picked up 0.18" today from occasional showers.

Speak of which, I'll be getting a taste of that today as temps are only supposed to peak around 70F with a stiff NE wind off the lake.  I took a look up north in the arrowhead of MN and temps are bottoming out in the mid 30's!  Crazy for early July.  Frost in July???  I'd say that is pretty rare but maybe someone else can comment on that.

 

Tab2FileL.png?9909629f27da873537f091bb00

 

 

 

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The summer version of the Hudson Bay Block appears to be strong enough to push the main show south.  The 0z Euro is now agreeing with what the GFS/GEFS have been showing for the last couple days.

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0z EPS gives some hope for those in IA and N IL...

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The JMA weeklies suggesting this pattern that is setting up over the next week or so to continue through July.  I think there is some heat dialing up for the Upper MW and parts of the Plains later next week but most of our Sub, seasonal to BN temps seem to be the main theme and the active pattern shall continue.  Monsoon in the SW seems to be on the uptick on the back half of the month.

Week 2...

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Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D0712_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D0712_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

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Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D0712_gl2.png

Y202107.D0712_gl0.png

 

 

The SST's in the NE PAC are on Fuego....it's interesting to see a lot of the ocean showing pockets of BN temps, esp across the areas in the N PAC/Aleutians, coastal Cali/Baja and of course the equatorial PAC.

 

Y202107.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

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The trend has been favorable for my area Friday.  Most models show some decent rain/storm action throughout the day, adding up to an inch for many where the best band sets up.

The weekend is still up in the air.  Models are forecasting a low to cut off, but there is disagreement with placement.  The NAM and Euro track the low south and east of Iowa, leaving us dry.  Other models cut the low off over southeast Iowa, dumping big rain over my area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro continues to be south of other models.  Here are the Euro and UK.... very different.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Frost across much of the Arrowhead of MN this past morning. Hibbing at 34F set a record. Silver Bay at 32F is latest in the season I've seen a legit 32F that I can remember for the Arrowheadimage.thumb.png.883b9bd781515013cd1b15ed438680ee.png

 
 
 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Frost across much of the Arrowhead of MN this past morning. Hibbing at 34F set a record. Silver Bay at 32F is latest in the season I've seen a legit 32F that I can remember for the Arrowheadimage.thumb.png.883b9bd781515013cd1b15ed438680ee.png

 
 
 

 

Brrrr...now that's cold for mid Summer!  ORD only topped out at 68F yesterday under thick overcast.  Felt like Oct 8th instead of July 8th.  I see it's still a bit nippy up that way this morning as well, but moreso over the U.P.

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This cut-off low is going to be one rare looking feature across the central CONUS over the course of the weekend into Monday.  Quite the blocked up pattern will create a situation where we see storms fire up and rotate around the cut-off 500mb vortex.  You don't see these type of set ups to often in the summer...sign of the times??  

0z Euro through Mon...

1.png

 

Looking out into next week, another repeat???  Easter ag belt going to get soaked....bullseye near @OttumwaSnomow and where the majority of our corn is grown...Non GMO please!

0z EPS...

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0z GFS...

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

I see a good signal for another nocturnal MCS next week Wed pm into Thu that fires up in IA and blossoms into a linear formation over MO/IL as a stalled out front then hangs around the eastern MW late next week.  Boy, what a fun pattern setting up for us wx enthusiasts who enjoying tracking storms.

 

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I'm sitting here this morning watching the sunrise and I notice that this is the first morning I no longer smell the flowers blooming or the sweetness in the air of what has been probably the longest spring of my lifetime. 

I think if there's any resemblance of a true summer in my future, now til the end of the month will be about the best strike at it we are going to see down here.

It runs outside of July's time frame, but the next 3-5 weeks are going to be weird. Should see the stages set up as the month closes for another heatwave over the NW. Lots to watch.

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I had a bit of an epiphany this morning when flipping through the wx maps.  In fact, I've been seeing this more often than not this summer as to how the pattern has been shaping up.  The big kicker to me when this summer season began was how wet and cool the southern Plains have been, esp down in TX/OK.  Something different was manifesting down there and let's not forget, the blossoming Monsoon this year, esp near NM so far but I do believe it will fire up more often across AZ/NV/UT/CO later next week into the rest of July and then Aug.  I really began downloading this information right around the Summer Solstice when I saw what could be a preview of what the pattern leading into the Autumn/Winter season may look like.  Actually, it was strikingly similar to what the CFSv2 has been suggesting over the course of the past couple months.  Let me show you what I'm seeing and beginning to really believe that there could be an interesting LRC next Autumn.

First, the all important month of October where it all begins and wouldn't ya know it, the CFSv2 is showing lower heights across where??? 

The southern Plains....what else do we see...bigly blocking across Canada....and depending on the length of next year's LRC, it will likely cycle through in Dec.  Well then, what does the model show for Dec???

1.gif

 

December...here's a map that I have NOT seen in prob over a Decade for the month of December for the entire CONUS....

2.gif

Let's compare the next couple weeks off the 0z EPS precip anomalies and then the Dec precip maps...while not a carbon copy due to seasonal variances as the colder pattern settles in, it is to me showing a very active potential across the majority of the central/eastern CONUS.

1.png

 

Coast-to-Coast action???  You don't have to ask me if I'm getting that excitement starting to percolate for next winter, esp how it ended for those of us who experienced a memorable late Jan into Feb.  

3.gif

In a nut shell, I'm thrilled to see that the second half of July will likely produce a lot of activity for many of us and prob on the cooler and comfortable variety.  Drought busting rains are almost a certainty IMHO by the time summer is over across the MW/GL's.  

On a side note, I literally just went on Gary's blog and saw this post from yesterday..."rare summer cyclone"...can't make it up when the universe guides like-minded people...

4.png

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Its going to be a hot and humid day today before the storms roll in overnight.  This cut-off low will likely keep my temps in the low to mid 70s over the weekend.  This wild part of the pattern with cut-off lows that soak some of us should continue for the next 2 weeks. I like the active pattern but unfortunately some will get to much rain and flooding will be a problem on the MO and Ohio rivers.

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The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

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The 12z HRRR has northeast Iowa into northern Illinois getting nothing for the entire weekend event.  The first round missed southwest and now the leftover clouds may keep this evening's storms southwest as well.  If we miss out later then it may be game over.  The NAM and HWF-FV3 show the action farther northeast later today, so there is still hope.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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First time in at least 30 years NWS in DSM has issued a svr TS for softball hail in C.IA. And headed for down town DSM.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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A complex of storms has developed north and east of Mason City.  That is a good sign for my area because that's where our stuff would have to form.  It should dive southeastward if it holds together.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

It’s just so odd Tom.  Even stranger than last summer.   We’ll have a high of 74* tomorrow!  Crazy for us in July.  No rain with it but a 50% chance Sunday evening.  
I’m very concerned about our coming winter.  Keep watching this Southern Plains outlook.  I pass it on to the City Fleet Manager to hopefully help them prepare.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Storms with heavy rain are just about to dive barely to my southwest.  All I will get is thunder and light rain.  Ugh.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Bud and Sparky appear to be in a good spot over the next hour or two.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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