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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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9 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Out of the blue, it’s now raining again. You might notice how green and thick the yards are. Not typical for mid July, even with sprinkler systems. 

Nice lush grass like in the spring here as well. Nothing unusual to have green or brown here in July.

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This line was a total joke.  The cells split my yard on the west side of CR by only a fraction of a mile north and south.  There is red on radar all over the CR area, but it has barely rained enough to wet the ground here.  Unreal.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

This line was a total joke.  The cells split my yard on the west side of CR by only a fraction of a mile north and south.  There is red on radar all over the CR area, but it has barely rained enough to wet the ground here.  Unreal.

Bummer! I saw a very narrow crack, but thought your just north of that. A nice little downpour here. Now some c/g lightning to sse. Maybe you can catch some lingering cells to your sw.

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The strong line only dropped a few hundredths in my yard.  Fortunately, the final trailing cell just produced a nice downpour that boosted my total to 0.24".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Going to be a busy afternoon nw. of me. 10% unhatched tornado risk. Isolated cells beginning to develop in w. Iowa. I might be more interested in the cells in se. Nebraska since they are further south and more likely (maybe) to bring rain to my area later? Now if the heavier rain were expected here than storms would dive south into Missouri, but of course now they’ll probably stay north.

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5 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Hmmm. Just south maybe? Guess we’ll find out. Models still don’t agree!🤷🏼

Well The HRRR didn't make it out as far as i took the 3km NAM so i wasn't really comparing apples to apples. (my bad)  Differences still though yes, but the precip was still ongoing further south at the end of the HRRR run.  

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There is a constant rumble coming from the strong Benton county storms, but this line has no sink to it, so I'll have to wait til the central Iowa storms move east.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I have a bad feeling the current storms will pass north of CR and then the central Iowa storms will sink south of CR.  It has that look.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I have a bad feeling the current storms will pass north of CR and then the central Iowa storms will sink south of CR.  It has that look.

Yes, Cedar Rapids looks to get absolutely nothing tonight, but I am not surprised. 

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So I wasn’t going to chase today bc we’re leaving town tomorrow but mainly bc the setup didn’t look that great for tornadoes.

But it seems like Iowa always has one of these days each year with some kind of an over performing tornado day. And today clearly was it.

I unfortunately didn’t leave the house until 330 and therefore missed all the really good, big tornadoes by Lake City, etc.

I was pretty bummed as I kept heading north out of Carroll, IA just hoping the last line of pretty pathetic storms could give me something. And it did!

It was pretty much a surprise tornado in an odd location on the storms and looking at radar you’d never guess there would be or was a tornado. In fact my report to NWS Des Moines caused the warning to be issued just before 6p for the Rockwell City area. The tornado was brief so I couldn’t get closer. After this the storm really did get it’s act together and looked like it might drop a big tornado but it didn’t. 
Still glad I pulled the trigger and chased today!

 

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I was awaken by the outflows from the line of storms that rolled into NW/N IL around 2:00am ish as the rains pelted the side window.  Man, IA has been the magnet for Tornado's over the past couple years.  @james1976glad to hear your safe and sound.  That must have been an experience you'll always remember.

Meantime, we'll be tracking a rare summer time upper level wave from KC to DTX...wait a sec, a lower lakes cutter??  Haha, seems like winter is always on my mind.  How many times have we seen similar set ups like this over the past number of months and nature continues to deliver some unusual wx this summer.  The 0z Euro drops a "weenie band" of heavy precip across the eastern ag belt.

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Over the next 2 weeks, the Monsoon really fires up and includes more neighboring states of AZ as expected.  Beautiful.

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Speaking of the Monsoon, how about a DP in the upper 60's and daytime temps near 100F???  That's what it felt like yesterday in PHX and over the next number of days.

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Yesterday was one of those kind of rare days when the mean for the day was "average" The overnight low here at my house was a warm 75 it must have been cloudy all night long but there was no rain here. There was some lightning to the north and northeast last night but it was off in the distance. As I have stated before there has not been much thunderstorm activity here in the NW side of GR. At this time it is cloudy and 76 here.

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The JMA weeklies are in and they suggest a "window of warmth/heat" in Week 2 but primarily targeting the same areas that have been stuck in the same ol' pattern.  I believe the farther east in our Sub overnight low temps will primarily drive the AN temp anomalies.  Nice signal for a potential "Ring of Fire" pattern.

 

Week 2...

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Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D1412_gl2.png

 

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Week 3-4...this period underscores the idea of a major trough to end July and open Aug for the eastern Sub/CONUS.  IMO, the next month of Aug we'll start seeing more re-occurring troughs driving S/SE out of Canada as the ridge builds out west into W C.A.

 

3.png

Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D1412_gl2.png

Y202107.D1412_gl0.png

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Last evening I kind of had the same luck as Hawkeye did yesterday forenoon  being stuck in a little hole with rain all around me. The storm was kinda recycling and about half over before I still caught a good downpour of not even quite 1/2” total. I thought it was over so was surprised to be awakened after 3:00am. by more lightning/thunder and a brief downpour though most of it again managed to pass just north and south. Haven’t checked yet, but I think I’m finally approaching 1” event total. If the 3km NAM actually verifies like it was showing yesterday se. Iowa could have more heavy rain today.

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The early week model  runs had front  limping through  here  this am with   a half inch.  Yesterday  pm models   got more robust.  At 10 pm last night I watched   the outflow boundary  drop southeast  from des metro.  Storms fired on it and front sagged with West  to east orientation.    I knew at 10 pm we indeed  would  not be missed.   Overnight I got 92/100 an pockets  in davis, vanburen  Monroe  and Lucas counties clearly  2 to 4 inches.

So since June 18th I have 9.3 inches and continue  to be dry spot.  Many in Southeast  Iowa have 13 to 17 inches

Screenshot_20210715-072729_Gallery.jpg

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