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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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What a magnificent day yesterday and today's wx looks like a carbon copy.  During the early afternoon hours, there was a thick layer of smoke in the air which obscured the sun for a while.  We didn't end up going to the beach bc my nephews didn't feel like it.  Let's see what today brings.

It's a very cool and comfy 62F/58F out there this morning with clear skies.  You know, its becoming more evident that the sunrises are getting later and later.  The darkness during my morning routine is noticeably longer than just a few weeks ago.   This is about the time of year I start to lurk more into the Sept pattern...but till then, Summer is still here.  

"Ring of Fire" anyone???  It appears that this pattern fires up next weekend into the following week to close out July.  Another major surge of Monsoonal moisture heads right into Arizona next Thu-Sun as a trough swings through the GL's creating a flow straight up from the south in the deserts.  This may be the last surge of moisture for this month out that way until we get into August.

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 We now at the high point of the summer season temperature wise. Starting on the 21st we will start the downward trend. When you stand back and look at our summer and winter season they are shorter than one is lead to believe. That is why it is better to use meteorological seasons rather than the so-called calendar season. Here at Grand Rapids the average daily mean is now at 73.0° (30 year average) or 74° (15 year average) By August 31st that is down to 68.7 (30 year average) or 69.0 (15 Year average) and if you use the “calendar” season by September 21 it is down to 61.5 (30 year) 62.0 (15 year) and at that time Grand Rapids is losing almost a half degree a day.  The over night low here was a cool 56 At the airport the overnight low was 58. At this time it is sunny and 77 here.

 

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I finished this morning’s storm with 0.55”. East and southeast of town was heavier from what has been reported. Sounds like this week will warm up and dry out. NWS Hastings already mentioning potential heat advisories this coming weekend. I’d assume dews will be high with all the standing water and very high corn evapotranspiration rates. 

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No Tx is seeing a small line of scattered rain move east.  
We’re sitting at 94 which is an average temp for us. July often hits us with temps near 100 so we’ll take this.  
 

I’m still curious if we’ll hit the century mark this year.  It’s been quite different.  Great to see rain though as the farmers get help and our water bill isn’t pegging the max.  
Overall a terrific summer so far. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The afternoon AFD here

Quote
Thursday through Sunday...The upper ridge will continue to bring the
heat, and various ridge riding shortwaves coming down will bring a
few chances for thunderstorms. The deterministic ECMWF and GFS both
has a fairly robust shortwave coming on Friday, pushing a surface
trough axis into the Red River Valley and bringing the possibility
of precip. There is a fairly weak signal for some precip in the R
and M climate, and cluster analysis has a fairly even split between
wet and dry solutions. Given that the medium range models and
precipitation have been like Lucy pulling the football away from
Charlie Brown this summer, will keep pops in the 20-40 percent range
for the Friday time period. Next weekend looks even less certain for
POPs with the possibility of another ridge riding shortwave and
maybe even another boundary coming down. High temperatures well
above seasonal averages into the upper 80s and 90s will continue,
again tempered by wildfire smoke and cloud cover.

 

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I slept with the window cracked open allowing that nice cool and refreshing air to come in.  The smell of the air out here in the rural parts of the Chicago burbs is different.  I'm sure many of you on here know what I'm talking about.  Living outside of the hustle and bustle of the city and in the open lands of rural America is so much more peaceful.  I would say Volo, IL is sorta rural but it is slowly turning into a small town and expanding.  Anyway, it's another cool morning out here (60F) but temps are on the rise this week and will be back to summery weather after a long cool spell.  Gosh, last week was so dreary and wet this sunshine makes a remarkable difference.

Spent a few hours at the beach yesterday with my nephews and pops who's visiting from AZ.  There was still the influence of the hazy skies from the smoke.  A nice breeze off the lake made it just perfect with temps near 80F.

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9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Another nice day today.  Last night lows dropped into the mid 60s as some drier air pushed in, but summer time heat and a repeat of the 2 week hot spell in June will return by midweek.

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I’m hopeful that my location is placed just far enough east of the developing upper level ridge and benefit from “ridge riders”.  Both the EPS/GEFS place the eastern MW/GL’s in this spot.  Keeping fingers crossed!  Oh, btw, my brothers fiancé said the wx was stunning down at the Ozarks.  They had a great time.

Meanwhile, I had to take a short vid of the really hazy skies this morning.  It’s really blocking the suns rays today.

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Yesterday official high at Grand Rapids was 83 and that is exactly average. The overnight low here was 60 and the official overnight low at GRR was 63. For July the current mean is 71.5 and that is a departure of -1.3. At this time it is 63 here with white skies due to all the the smoke. While the sun is shining thru that thick smoke giving it a kind of reddish tint. It sure looks hazy out at this time.

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@FAR_Weather You getting any rain today?  I finally got some this am.  Not enough to really make any difference with drought conditions but at least the dust is knocked down.  

It's hyperbole of course, but long time area residents are noting that "they have never seen it this dry before..." over the last couple weeks.  

The dryness from last fall through winter, spring, and now summer is adding up though.  The water table is naturally high in the area and there are many ditches and low areas that usually have standing water/cattails in them year round are that are starting to dry up... 

Even so our situation isn't as bad as NW Ontario.  It's not a coincidence that the area that had a snow whole all last winter is now the same area burning... 

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The rain chances later this week and weekend have mostly vanished from the models.  Today's Euro has little if any rain through ten days across Iowa.  The GFS has nothing through sixteen days.  Ugh.  

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Not really much to say. It's been a boring stretch of weather in the area outside of that big storm in Omaha. Looks like another bout of near triple digit heat this weekend. That should cancel out the -2.5 depature for the month. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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2 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

@FAR_Weather You getting any rain today?  I finally got some this am.  Not enough to really make any difference with drought conditions but at least the dust is knocked down.  

It's hyperbole of course, but long time area residents are noting that "they have never seen it this dry before..." over the last couple weeks.  

The dryness from last fall through winter, spring, and now summer is adding up though.  The water table is naturally high in the area and there are many ditches and low areas that usually have standing water/cattails in them year round are that are starting to dry up... 

Even so our situation isn't as bad as NW Ontario.  It's not a coincidence that the area that had a snow whole all last winter is now the same area burning... 

Actually got a good thunderstorm. Brought about 40 minutes of heavy rain and some very relieving dynamic cooling.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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78*. Two real nice showers today.   
 

That’s good as the next 10 days look to be mid 90’s/ high, low 70’s. 
No rain. Well, it IS summer.  
 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12Z GFS had us hitting 112 degrees next Tuesday the 27th. All time record high here is 110. Sure, why not. Might as well join the Pacific Northwest and Canada when they broke their all time record highs. 

18Z GFS says "hold my beer". It has us basically 100+ from this Friday 7/23 all the way through the following Sunday 8/1   (9 days) with the following highs each day (from what I can see on the 3 hour incremental maps).

23- 102

24- 97

25- 103

26- 109

27- 113

28- 109

29- 110

30- 114

31- 102 (can't see 21Z so could be higher)

1- 99 (also can't see 21Z so could be higher)

 

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15 hours ago, Tom said:

I slept with the window cracked open allowing that nice cool and refreshing air to come in.  The smell of the air out here in the rural parts of the Chicago burbs is different.  I'm sure many of you on here know what I'm talking about.  Living outside of the hustle and bustle of the city and in the open lands of rural America is so much more peaceful.  I would say Volo, IL is sorta rural but it is slowly turning into a small town and expanding.  Anyway, it's another cool morning out here (60F) but temps are on the rise this week and will be back to summery weather after a long cool spell.  Gosh, last week was so dreary and wet this sunshine makes a remarkable difference.

Spent a few hours at the beach yesterday with my nephews and pops who's visiting from AZ.  There was still the influence of the hazy skies from the smoke.  A nice breeze off the lake made it just perfect with temps near 80F.

Avoid closing the windows at all costs...fresh pine scent all day everyday. Its literally one of the best parts of moving up here!

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New update, 0Z GFS😳🥵🥵
***all time record high in Omaha is 110***
Similar numbers forecast for South and North Dakota!!
Average high temp over 13 days: 107.5 degrees 😳
7/23- 101
7/24- 105
7/25- 105
7/26- 98
7/27- 110
7/28- 106
7/29- 110
7/30- 109
7/31- 103
8/1- 109
8/2- 113
8/3- 115
8/4- 113

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39 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

New update, 0Z GFS😳🥵🥵
***all time record high in Omaha is 110***
Similar numbers forecast for South and North Dakota!!
Average high temp over 13 days: 107.5 degrees 😳
7/23- 101
7/24- 105
7/25- 105
7/26- 98
7/27- 110
7/28- 106
7/29- 110
7/30- 109
7/31- 103
8/1- 109
8/2- 113
8/3- 115
8/4- 113

It did that same sh!t here last summer before temps ended up settling in the 90s. That model is hilarious. 

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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3 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

It did that same sh!t here last summer before temps ended up settling in the 90s. That model is hilarious. 

I’d normally agree with you except it’s happened already this year. The GFS actually did a really good job with the record smashing highs in the NW a couple of weeks ago. Numbers that most people  likely laughed at initially. 

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@Clinton, your post the other day about the early June heat wave that is cycling through over the next 1-2 weeks for the Upper MW/Plains states is right on.  This time, however, instead of a +NAO/+AO the teleconnections are going to flip and are forecast to hover near neutral to (-).  This allows the storm track across Canada to be adjusted farther south instead of farther N as it was back in June allowing the massive and expansive GL's ridge to blossom like it did back then.  I'm still thinking our area will benefit from "ridge riders" and the most intense heat remains out W & N.

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0z Euro precip map over the next 10 days....can you spot where the summer anticyclone is located???  On a side note, a welcomed bullseye of abundant moisture for the state of AZ.  Boy, does that look pretty for the SW.

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32 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, your post the other day about the early June heat wave that is cycling through over the next 1-2 weeks for the Upper MW/Plains states is right on.  This time, however, instead of a +NAO/+AO the teleconnections are going to flip and are forecast to hover near neutral to (-).  This allows the storm track across Canada to be adjusted farther south instead of farther N as it was back in June allowing the massive and expansive GL's ridge to blossom like it did back then.  I'm still thinking our area will benefit from "ridge riders" and the most intense heat remains out W & N.

1.gif

2.gif

 

0z Euro precip map over the next 10 days....can you spot where the summer anticyclone is located???  On a side note, a welcomed bullseye of abundant moisture for the state of AZ.  Boy, does that look pretty for the SW.

1.png

 

 

 

I agree and you are going to be in a great spot to receive alot of rain over the next week or so.  The high Plains are going to cook but I think for mby the high heat will only last 3 or 4 days. Do you see a summer time polar vortex forming in early August?  I believe we should see a very strong cold front putting an end to the summertime heat around the 7th maybe a little sooner.

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To me the  past few days has seen some of the most smoke I can remember. So far today there seems to be a little less smoke and there is more blue in the sky. I wonder how much the smoke cut down on yesterdays high temperatures and if it held up the overnight lows the last couple of days. The overnight low here was 63 and the airport the low was 65 at the current time it is 71 both here and officially at GRR with hazy sunshine. Like I said there is more blue than yesterday but the sky is still a white/blue

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The Heat is ON after today's one day reprieve.  Going to enjoy every bit of it bc I think our seasons 1st Heat Advisory could be issued for parts of N IL later this weekend and into next week.  As tropical moisture flows into the region along with mature crop, we are in the time of year where we see peak DP's unfortunately.  I feel ya for those who live in the agricultural parts of our country, esp in IA.  I could see DP's hitting near 80F during this Heat Wave.

Yesterday evening as the lake enduced CF swept through, the wild fire smoke made it down to ground level and it smelled like someone was burning a fire next door.  I felt like I was up north in the woods of Wisco for a time as it brought back childhood memories.  Smoky skies are in the forecast yet again today as there is an Air Quality Alert in place today.

Overnight model runs are coming in-line with one another that storms erupt over E NE into the central MW region Sun pm into Mon.  "Ring of Fire" pattern fires up during this period and beyond.  The EPS, especially, continues to hold steady for next week as the model "sees" this Ring of Fire ignite.  Quite the Fuel will be present and could possibly bring some dangerous storms IMHO.  The eastern Ag Belt/GL's region in the most ideal place.

0z EPS through months end...

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Excessive heat watch issued for the KC metro.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
  105 possible.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Johnson KS
  Counties. In Missouri, Platte, Clay and Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
  increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
  particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
  activities.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged period of heat expected. Heat
  indices near 100 or above expected each day. Additionally,
  overnight lows expected to remain above 75 degrees each night,
  leading to minimal relief from
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We now have 20 days of July 2021 in the history books and the mean here at Grand Rapids so far this month is 71.8 and that is -1.0 below average. The high for the month so far is 89 on the 4th and 5th and the low so far is 54 on the 10th There has been a total of 1.56" of rain fall at GRR and that is below the average of 2.49" by this date. While there have been a reported 4 thunderstorms at GRR here at my house I only seen lightning in the distance this month and there were at best only a hand full of thunder claps last month here so here at my house the thunderstorm drought continues. To my surprise there were a few sprinkles here this morning and at this time it is cloudy here and 66 That is also the overnight low here at my house. The official overnight low at the airport looks to be 65.

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Excessive heat watch issued for the KC metro.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
  105 possible.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Johnson KS
  Counties. In Missouri, Platte, Clay and Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
  increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
  particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
  activities.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged period of heat expected. Heat
  indices near 100 or above expected each day. Additionally,
  overnight lows expected to remain above 75 degrees each night,
  leading to minimal relief from

Been to KC many times over the years during summers. As a kid we went to many Royals games and Worlds and Oceans of Fun. Then my brother got a job in KC in 1994 and he and his family have lived in Shawnee ever since. The humidity in KC was almost unbearable on many of our visits. There were times at Worlds of Fun it felt like you were standing in the tropics. The urban heat island just adds to the misery with low temps not dropping that far. 

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Been to KC many times over the years during summers. As a kid we went to many Royals games and Worlds and Oceans of Fun. Then my brother got a job in KC in 1994 and he and his family have lived in Shawnee ever since. The humidity in KC was almost unbearable on many of our visits. There were times at Worlds of Fun it felt like you were standing in the tropics. The urban heat island just adds to the misery with low temps not dropping that far. 

KC seems to have some hot and humid days with no wind to mix the air.  This is the time of year for that.

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We’re in the same hot dull pattern.  
Nothing to report beyond that. 😝

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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