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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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As we continue to move through Summer, what does July have in store???  Well, the CFSv2 has been strongly indicating that the N.A. 500mb pattern will amplify this month along with targeted teleconnections that will allow a central CONUS "pool of cool" to develop alongside a very wet pattern for some.  Who will remain dry and fry??  Who will remain wet and cool??  Let's discuss....

The models are suggesting a burst of warmer weather to occur as we open the 1st full week of July as some of the LR forecasting tools have suggested to me would happen.  Depending on which model of choice, some have a trough move through the GL's region by late in the week post 4th of July holiday, while some others keep a ridge present.  I'm more in favor of the trough and that will create a frontal boundary to swing through the MW/GL's region around the 8th/9th period ushering in another wetter period.  So while we dry out over the coming days, I'm pretty confident it will remain wet for a lot of the eastern/southern ag belt.  

0z EPS temp pattern for the 1st week...

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2nd week...

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The CFSv2 is pretty much rock steady...

 

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Taking a look at the Euro weeklies EPO run from Monday, it is surely suggesting a western N.A. ridge....it really hasn't deviated from this LR signal.  In my opinion, I believe the 2nd half of the month will be overall a much more broadly cooler pattern across our Sub (except for our friends in the N/NW Sub).  I'm hoping to see the NW flow pattern to ignite a period of storms across the Upper MW region by mid month.  The dryness showing up on the CFSv2 for the northern 1/2 of the Sub is concerning.

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Sheesh, talk about a nation divided....Dry north, Wet south...I am digging the very wet 4 corners region....Keep the Monsoonal moisture going into Sept.  

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_1.png

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We're entering July and this Summer feels like it's gone on for seven months. With a couple of exceptions, every day since 6/1 has been hot, dry, windless, and miserable. Definitely not what I signed up for here.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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5 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

This is one very consistent forecast. A high of 90F everyday! lol

 

 

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Brownsville,Tx? I was there a number of times during the winter when the weather was very nice.

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6 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

We're entering July and this Summer feels like it's gone on for seven months. With a couple of exceptions, every day since 6/1 has been hot, dry, windless, and miserable. Definitely not what I signed up for here.

Ohio really didn't dial up the Winter you were looking for and the winter was abysmal up in Fargo last year....now Summer???  D**n, I hope it changes for you this cold season and makes up for it!  

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Happy July 1st!  Gosh, this is year is flying on by and I'm really looking forward to the 4th of July.  What looked like a comfy holiday weekend a couple days ago, the models have trended warmer and more humid.  While not overwhelmingly Hot and Humid, it sure is nice to get a reprieve from the rain and enjoy a stretch of summery days.  Relief in DP's the next couple days around here as temps drop into the low/mid 70's today & tomorrow...the A/C will get a break.  It's a wonderful treat for literally all of us on here to get a break from the rain during the holiday weekend.  Literally, all of us will have HP dominate our wx pattern.  You don't see that to often.

 

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Today's JMA weeklies are mirroring what the CFSv2 weeklies are showing for the next 4 weeks.  After this brief burst of Heat in and around the MW/GL's region during the 1st week of July, the pattern will shift away from the upper level ridge over the northern Sub, as the flow aloft will be more out of the NW as ridging dominates off the west coast of North America towards mid month.

Week 2-4 500mb pattern...

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Week 2 temp/precip...

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Week 3-4 temp/precip...a bigger area of near normal to BN temps develops 2nd half of the month for the entire Sub. This were my expectations so it's nice to see the modeling agree.  Wet, wet, wet....is almost a certain Bet!  The desert SW/4 corners are going to be blessed by Monsoonal rains.  You don't know how much this means for those out that way.  I'm thrilled to see that this pattern should lock in for a while.

Y202106.D3012_gl2.png

Y202106.D3012_gl0.png

 

 

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While July has the warmest average mean temperature it is NOT always the warmest month of the year. I was kind of surprised to see so many years when July was not the warmest month at Grand Rapids. June was the warmest in 2014,1967,1956,1971,1984 and 2005. August was the warmest in 1947,1900,1937,1959,1995,1938,1918,1906,1899,2007 and 1984.

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9 hours ago, Sparky said:

Brownsville,Tx? I was there a number of times during the winter when the weather was very nice.

Well, we’re in the dog days of summer. Same ol same ol.  However, we aren’t all THAT consistent!  
Looks like someone didn’t want to be bothered.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

We're entering July and this Summer feels like it's gone on for seven months. With a couple of exceptions, every day since 6/1 has been hot, dry, windless, and miserable. Definitely not what I signed up for here.

I saw someplace that Fargo has only had 6.50” of precipitation for the year. Is that correct?  That is unreal if true. Our local paper has my area at 19.50” so far through June 30th. 

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The lack of wind for the last week is something. Everything is green again with not much evaporation and many cloudy days. The yards that were stressed last week, look good now. The crops look amazing. The fear is always wondering if it is our turn for a hail storm. 

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Happy Friday!  What a wonderful morning waking up to the sounds of birds chirping and a very comfortable 57F/55F.  Windows are cracked open allowing a nice cool breeze to come in.  Hope everyone has a fantastic, fun and safe 4th of July holiday!  Nothing but sunshine all weekend long...a little hot and humid on the 4th but nothing we can't deal with...bring it!

 

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Interesting trends for mid/late next week as the models are seeing stronger blocking across N & C Canada allowing for another Canadian HP to track through the N Sub.  Then, another trough swings through the following weekend.  Sign of the times???  Volatility will be a very common theme this month.  I'm digging the pattern in the LR and something tells me that most of our Sub will be seeing some delightful mid summer weather.  

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0z EPS trending cool/wetter for next week and week 2....

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42 minutes ago, Tom said:

Interesting trends for mid/late next week as the models are seeing stronger blocking across N & C Canada allowing for another Canadian HP to track through the N Sub.  Then, another trough swings through the following weekend.  Sign of the times???  Volatility will be a very common theme this month.  I'm digging the pattern in the LR and something tells me that most of our Sub will be seeing some delightful mid summer weather.  

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0z EPS trending cool/wetter for next week and week 2....

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I'll take the cooler weather. Things look to get mighty sticky around here next week with no shortage of standing water. Could we see another cutoff low week 2 or 3? If so July might be just as wet as June.

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Went outside a bit ago to take in the cool air and I must say, it has a bit of a chill factor... @Madtown I see is dipping into the upper 40's up in the Northwoods!  I got goosebumps and had to put on a light hoodie as I prepare to head to the gym.  Looking forward to another day with plentiful sunshine and highs in the low 70's...ahhh, what a great start to the day.

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3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'll take the cooler weather. Things look to get mighty sticky around here next week with no shortage of standing water. Could we see another cutoff low week 2 or 3? If so July might be just as wet as June.

I def agree, there are good LR signals that this month will be on the wetter variety and not as much consistent heat we saw in June.  In fact, I just glanced at the Euro Weeklies from yesterday and it is locked on a cool/wet pattern from the desert SW/4 corners region all the way across the S Plains/MW/GL's region.  The -EPO is certainly going to influence the pattern.

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Would someone weigh into Texas/Okla  for the next few weeks please ?  
 

Very different here plus we have an early hurricane season.   

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Horrific. I have seen wildfires here literally travel faster than the Fire Chief could get ahead of it to set up a staging area. 
My heart just goes out to everyone out west. Rancher and Farmers are really struggling.  Food will go up like crazy.  Pray for rain folks. 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think there is heavy smoke in the sky that is dimming the sun light.  I don’t believe it was in the forecast.  It’s very thick it almost looks like high cirrus clouds.

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Womderful Friday with temp in the low 80’s and a 59 Dew. NWS Hastings says it would be lower, however,  

“relatively dry/continental air mass in place across the Central Plains, with what moisture we do have likely due to evapotranspiration from rapidly growing corn.”

We are now at that point of the year when we can start adding to typical dews. Usually this lasts through about the last week of August. 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I think there is heavy smoke in the sky that is dimming the sun light.  I don’t believe it was in the forecast.  It’s very thick it almost looks like high cirrus clouds.

No smoke here. Nice, boring, stupid blue sky and cumulus.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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13 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

No smoke here. Nice, boring, stupid blue sky and cumulus.

This photo certainly confirms what I was seeing yesterday and it looks like you were right on the edge of it.  I remember the summer of '14 I think it was, we had similar fires burning in western Canada which cause milky skies and picturesque sunsets.  That year I went up to Wisconsin for the 4th of July weekend and it was a splendid holiday weekend.  Looking forward to kick off this weekend with old friends at a house party in the city and there will be plenty of fireworks!

 

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Just a fantastic morning 62F/53F, sipping on my coffee enjoying a gorgeous sunrise.  Heading up into the upper 80's today and low 90's on the 4th & 5th.  Enjoy the festivities folks!  

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My father flew in late last night (2:00am) from Arizona and was delayed by the big storms up in the mountains.  I spoke to him prior to his flight and told him he could be delayed.  Just glad he had a safe flight as well as seeing the rains appear during this years Monsoon.  While we dry out, others can reap the rewards from nature. 

Speaking of which, could there be more activity for us down the road???  I'm seeing some unusual op runs off the models for next weekend.  Hybrid Clipper???  Upper MW rains??  The tables could be turning for some of our members on here.  I'm hopeful for some of ya'll to score precip in this pattern next week.

0z Euro next 7 days...both systems....

 

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00z GEFS...

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0z EPS...where precip is needed the most...bring it on nature...

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Final comment for the morning, if you had enough of the heat...models continue to trend bolder with the "central pool of cool" along with wetter conditions in the extended.  Sign me up...

 

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For OK and TX, it looks like after the brief returning heat spike, we don't have a summer after. I'm fine with that! 

Maybe a hurricane could make it through TX, but the real threats are up amd down the EC August thru September and maybe one right up the central gulf before the troughiness of the cycle rolls back thru. With a little bit of next year's pattern starting off with them.

Glad to see the rain right in the nick of time for most of the northern and eastern parts of our sub and should give plants, crops, hay enough of a kick to finish the season out barring an early frost by August's end for the north.

Most of the thoughts I had back in April about this season have ran out pretty well like I pictured it. 

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Probably won't even hit 70 on Tuesday. It'll be a nice change of pace to have the AC off.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Both the 0z Euro and GFS deliver beneficial rains to some of the drought areas the next 10 days. The GFS in the long range gives everyone some rain. In the 10 day I lean with the GFS the NW flow should deliver some rain to Neb and the Dakota's.

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I’m on vacation in New Hampshire. We took the train to the summit of Mt. Washington. The second picture is the weather instrumentation that the NWS uses. It was very chilly at the top. Temps were right around 50° with winds gusting to probably 20-25mph while we were there but the NWS reported gusts over 50mph at times. 

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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After a few very warm days this week it looks to cool down for a while and in fact the 1st half of July looks to be below average temperature wise. At this time it is mostly sunny (there is some smoke causing a milky color sky) and it is now 83 here now. The DP here at my house is not at 72. So it is rather humid.
 

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Good day all!  Hope everyone is enjoying the extended holiday and the beautiful weather we are having.  What a perfect weekend around here.  While yesterday the humidity levels rose a bit, it was tolerable due to a nice SW breeze.  The forecast called for low 90's both days but officially we did not reach 90F both on Sat (86F) and Sun (89F).  The milky skies from the smoke up near Ontario Canada filtered out some of the suns rays.  It's another warm and muggy morning with a stunning reddish sunrise.

 

 

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Some of the warmest official temperatures in Michigan on July 4th were in the UP and northern lower Michigan. With 90 at Houghton, Iron Mountain. the Sault. It even reached 88 at Copper Harbor along with a 89 at Marquette. In norther lower Michigan it reached 92 at Traverse City and Gaylord 90 was recorded at Houghton Lake. In southern lower Michigan it was 90 at Flint, Saginaw and Detroit metro. At Detroit City it was 93. Here at Grand Rapids the official high was 89. It was cooler at Muskegon 82 and Holland 81. The overnight low here at my house was 69 the official overnight low at Grand Rapids was 70. At this time it is clear and 72 here at my house.

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0z Euro/EPS dialing up the moisture for our friends up north, then it fires up farther south this weekend and the following week.  Giddy up folks...some interesting wx is on the horizon as this coming weekend may very well feature a severe wx threat for the MW/Lower Lakes region.  The nations grow zone is going to be blessed with abundant moisture this month and I firmly believe we have seen the hottest part of summer for the most part across our Sub (except for the Upper MW folks).  Still think they will be baking at time this month and next. 

Any who, here are some maps below...next 7 days

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About time I have some green over me.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The ole 73 dew point at 11 am. Better be in A/C or water today. No breeze at all. Worked outside for a little bit and my shirt and hat are soaked. Think Fall. 

#thinkseptember

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Many of the latest model runs are looking much better for rainfall this week in Iowa or my area. I hope it verifies because we’re needing more rain. Things are kinda wilting in the hot sunshine!

Today is probably the third consecutive day of hazy smoke filtered sunshine around here!

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Everyone here is gonna get rain tonight, but it looks like 5 or so miles will be the difference between 0.3" and 3".

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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It has already been ten days since our 2" rainfall.  I don't expect much Wednesday morning, but I hope the late-week rain pans out.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I just returned from a trip to Chadron State Park and then a couple of days out in Yellowstone.

Yellowstone absolutely blew me away! Just crazy to see such a different landscape up close.

The Grand Tetons still had some snow at the summits. We also ran into a hailstorm that covered the roads and hillsides in pea sized hail and dropped the temps from 81 to 46 degrees!A3EFC30E-0BEC-452B-B335-FD7426334EEF.thumb.jpeg.88b072b1d9d7beb8a8f7ebef2a3b9aa2.jpeg1960E109-DB64-49FB-A5C6-902C18C9F8B1.thumb.jpeg.18269e13d0e71f682670569be0f6284f.jpegBF625E1D-1084-45D6-AAAC-66445E76CEAF.thumb.jpeg.f0c6bc462785322c7bfbdafc1d68e56b.jpegD8C5C5C5-7E48-4E75-A398-162DEADD66A5.thumb.jpeg.e9f17ea84263984e6a385a503a430a2d.jpeg46C009F9-31AA-4FA6-9A11-4F64C5F265E4.thumb.jpeg.d5d99b45d8874269df9dfa8e977203fc.jpeg21296A9E-0C30-45EB-8A06-D3EF5D519EFC.thumb.jpeg.357bcc2ae356c9f65396b7d281ae8c4f.jpegB2634B80-CED4-4FDE-AD84-0AB670366626.thumb.jpeg.a3f5575d2ebfe095738d25b5e9f7203c.jpegC55CD1C4-EF1B-4346-8E1C-462486EA8F7C.thumb.jpeg.8e8c2e2a9a9279d2218343ca2febf276.jpeg

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It's a very warm and muggy morning 77F/68F with a slight breeze as daylight begins to emerge.  This has to be the warmest overnight temps of the season.  Heading up into the low 90's again today and could be a while till we see any more 90's again.

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The Monsoonal rains finally made it into the valley of the sun over the weekend on the 3rd.  My place out west received about .50" of rain while others near an 1" but Sky Harbor only picked up .26" but was a record for the day.  More Heat building later this week out west which will drive our wx pattern late this week into the weekend.  Another slow moving cut-off low will fire up some severe wx and heavy rains for the MW.

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I just returned from a trip to Chadron State Park and then a couple of days out in Yellowstone.

Yellowstone absolutely blew me away! Just crazy to see such a different landscape up close.

The Grand Tetons still had some snow at the summits. We also ran into a hailstorm that covered the roads and hillsides in pea sized hail and dropped the temps from 81 to 46 degrees!A3EFC30E-0BEC-452B-B335-FD7426334EEF.thumb.jpeg.88b072b1d9d7beb8a8f7ebef2a3b9aa2.jpeg1960E109-DB64-49FB-A5C6-902C18C9F8B1.thumb.jpeg.18269e13d0e71f682670569be0f6284f.jpegBF625E1D-1084-45D6-AAAC-66445E76CEAF.thumb.jpeg.f0c6bc462785322c7bfbdafc1d68e56b.jpegD8C5C5C5-7E48-4E75-A398-162DEADD66A5.thumb.jpeg.e9f17ea84263984e6a385a503a430a2d.jpeg46C009F9-31AA-4FA6-9A11-4F64C5F265E4.thumb.jpeg.d5d99b45d8874269df9dfa8e977203fc.jpeg21296A9E-0C30-45EB-8A06-D3EF5D519EFC.thumb.jpeg.357bcc2ae356c9f65396b7d281ae8c4f.jpegB2634B80-CED4-4FDE-AD84-0AB670366626.thumb.jpeg.a3f5575d2ebfe095738d25b5e9f7203c.jpegC55CD1C4-EF1B-4346-8E1C-462486EA8F7C.thumb.jpeg.8e8c2e2a9a9279d2218343ca2febf276.jpeg

Awesome photos! Have you ever hiked the trail leading down to the Lower Falls in the bottom photo? I have twice in my life, but not since 1995 being the last time, so it’s about time I do it again! It’s amazing being right above and beside those falls and seeing it plunge 300’ and hearing the roar! That was the highlight of Yellowstone to me. The Upper Falls are decent as well.

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The overnight thunderstorm dropped 0.75" of rain here. The temperature here at my house was 80 at midnight and it held at 79 until the storm came thru at around 4AM.  At this time it is clear here with a temperature of 72.

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