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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’ll just keep using the word gross. 

My davis pro here. Has  been over 77 dewpoint  for  what seems like 10 straight days. Its been 80 or higher on at least 6 days.   IT WAS 85 as weak cold front approached sat pm.  Id bet on a 82 dewpoint  or higher tomorrow.  The Fairfield  Iowa airport is  usually   a similar  dewpoint  as me.  I live along a creek that empties in to desmoines  river about  5 miles away. Wooded and wetlands.  A mid 80s dewpoint  happens  almost each year!!! Place is nuts!  I spent  weeks on Bolivia Brazil border area of Amazon.  This could be slightly  worse!!

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33 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

My davis pro here. Has  been over 77 dewpoint  for  what seems like 10 straight days. Its been 80 or higher on at least 6 days.   IT WAS 85 as weak cold front approached sat pm.  Id bet on a 82 dewpoint  or higher tomorrow.  The Fairfield  Iowa airport is  usually   a similar  dewpoint  as me.  I live along a creek that empties in to desmoines  river about  5 miles away. Wooded and wetlands.  A mid 80s dewpoint  happens  almost each year!!! Place is nuts!  I spent  weeks on Bolivia Brazil border area of Amazon.  This could be slightly  worse!!

I had a buddy of mine tell me about the Davis Weather App. I downloaded it and follow about 15 farmers in the area that have it. I love looking at precipitation and Dew readings. I saw a 77 today in one field just north of town. Mid 80’s Dew is ridiculous. Highest I’ve seen measured in town here in the last 10 years was 81. I didn’t have the app then to see how much higher the fields were. 

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Do rural stations in corn country always report much higher dews? That would support the corn = humidity argument. 88/79 in Shenandoah, IA rn. I believe it. It's bad. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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11 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Do rural stations in corn country always report much higher dews? That would support the corn = humidity argument. 88/79 in Shenandoah, IA rn. I believe it. It's bad. 

Sure seems that way around here. I see we have just jumped to a 77 Dew at 7:30. No wind at all. Corn belching out moisture all day in a tropical airmass. My best friend, who is a farmer, is an expert in Dew Points and can rattle off stats and information like crazy. 

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47 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Do rural stations in corn country always report much higher dews? That would support the corn = humidity argument. 88/79 in Shenandoah, IA rn. I believe it. It's bad. 

For sure. Beans also.

The higher wet bulbs today put a damper on temps slightly in C.IA. DSM was forecasted to be 95 and it only made 92F. If the same is tomorrow with dews in mid to upper 70's to low 80's- I doubt anywhere with a dew above 76 or so makes it 100F or above.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tomorrow looks to be our last 90s high for a while. God I hope so. 90s being the norm here like they have been this summer completely defies climo.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

My davis pro here. Has  been over 77 dewpoint  for  what seems like 10 straight days. Its been 80 or higher on at least 6 days.   IT WAS 85 as weak cold front approached sat pm.  Id bet on a 82 dewpoint  or higher tomorrow.  The Fairfield  Iowa airport is  usually   a similar  dewpoint  as me.  I live along a creek that empties in to desmoines  river about  5 miles away. Wooded and wetlands.  A mid 80s dewpoint  happens  almost each year!!! Place is nuts!  I spent  weeks on Bolivia Brazil border area of Amazon.  This could be slightly  worse!!

I usually reach low 80°s dews at least once or more every summer.

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The Cedar Rapids airport is out in the country, among the corn fields.  Today CR reported a dew in the upper 60s all day and only rose above 70º over the last hour or two.

CR also did not hit 90º today.  Assuming we will hit 90º Wednesday, that would be only two 90º highs during the entire heat wave the models were showing.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 hours ago, Sparky said:

When I’m biking out here in the country on calm evenings or nights there’s a big difference in temps between tops and bottoms of the rolling hills by at least 5° or more. Was glad I had a light sweater when I was on the way home from a family reunion near midnight last night! Felt almost chilly in the dips! The reunion continues today with maybe 150+ people here. It will be to hot today.

I miscalculated. They counted over 200 and if everyone would’ve come it would’ve been at least 300 just on my fathers side!  Got to see all of my siblings from 4 states. We had 2 portable ice cream machines going full time most of the afternoon! It was a huge hit as usual.😃 It felt ok sitting out under the shade tree as there was a decent wind for a change, but it’s nearly calm this evening as usual. This is past for another few years.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Cedar Rapids airport is out in the country, among the corn fields.  Today CR reported a dew in the upper 60s all day and only rose above 70º over the last hour or two.

CR also did not hit 90º today.  Assuming we will hit 90º Wednesday, that would be only two 90º highs during the entire heat wave the models were showing.

I generally  have way less corn than most areas of Iowa. I live in a 50% wooded area.  Creeks, wetlands, pastures, hay.  Maybe  25%  at most corn and soybeans. Yet my dewpoint  is constantly  higher  than OTM a airport surrounded  by corn and beans about 11 miles away.  In May i had a 83 dewpoint   when corn was 6 inches high and bean barely up. I think humidity  pools from Mississippi  river basin. Im about 700 ft elevation.  Im sure there was 80 dewpoints  here in the grass and wetlands of the 1700s! Lol

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Don't see SPC mention "derecho" too much in disco's or have a MOD risk this late in season this far N. But it's getting to be classic derecho season - last years was Aug 10th if I'am not mistaken.

 

WHITEWOLF-280721-012333.JPG

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, capable of widespread damaging wind gusts,
very large hail and several tornadoes, are forecast across portions
of Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon into tonight.
A favorable pattern will exist over MN/WI toward Lake Michigan
today, supporting intense severe thunderstorms and possible derecho
development later this afternoon/evening. As a result, a Moderate
risk has been included from extreme east-central MN into southeast
WI with the initial Day 1 Outlook.
Forecaster ..Leitman/Bentley.. 07/28/2021

 

Screenshot 2021-07-28 at 01-21-39 SPC Day 1 Outlook.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 hours ago, Sparky said:

I miscalculated. They counted over 200 and if everyone would’ve come it would’ve been at least 300 just on my fathers side!  Got to see all of my siblings from 4 states. We had 2 portable ice cream machines going full time most of the afternoon! It was a huge hit as usual.😃 It felt ok sitting out under the shade tree as there was a decent wind for a change, but it’s nearly calm this evening as usual. This is past for another few years.

 

 

Wow, you have quite a large family and congrats on the turnout!  I always enjoy reuniting with old family and friends.  That's one of the simple things in life we should all embrace.  The ice cream sounds delicious!

 

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Holy crap!  This cell just blossomed in intensity as I was writing my last post and the winds are very strong!  The power just went out on the other side of my street...please, please stay on over here!  The rain is coming down sideways...this is literally blowing up right over my house and I could tell by the winds that these are powerful downdrafts.  Wow.

 

image.png

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The NWS just issued a warning for that storm cell which literally blossomed right over head.  This is like the 3rd time I remember that this has happened to me where a storm grows right overhead.  @Jaycee and those on the north side of Chicago are in for a "wake up" call from nature.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Don't see SPC mention "derecho" too much in disco's or have a MOD risk this late in season this far N. But it's getting to be classic derecho season - last years was Aug 10th if I'am not mistaken.

 

WHITEWOLF-280721-012333.JPG

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 28 2021

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
EAST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, capable of widespread damaging wind gusts,
very large hail and several tornadoes, are forecast across portions
of Minnesota and Wisconsin late this afternoon into tonight.
A favorable pattern will exist over MN/WI toward Lake Michigan
today, supporting intense severe thunderstorms and possible derecho
development later this afternoon/evening. As a result, a Moderate
risk has been included from extreme east-central MN into southeast
WI with the initial Day 1 Outlook.
Forecaster ..Leitman/Bentley.. 07/28/2021

 

Screenshot 2021-07-28 at 01-21-39 SPC Day 1 Outlook.png

This particular set up on Wednesday has been on my mind for a couple days now.  I'm actually kinda nervous to see how these storms develop tonight.  If this mornings surprise storm is any indication to what may transpire, it may get pretty wild.

 

Meantime, yesterday we did not officially hit 90F marking an end to the streak of 90's at 3 days due to debris clouds from the powerful storms that raged through N Wisco the other evening.  Prob won't hit 90F again today but we'll see.  I had this feeling my area would be benefiting from storms riding the "Ridge" and it certainly is paying off in the precip dept.

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Today and tomorrow will likely be the 2 hottest days of the year with temps in the mid 90s to near 100 tomorrow.  The heat index will likely be 105-110 here.  This mornings GFS looks good for rain potential this weekend as more pleasant air moves in.  Possible severe weather looks possible Sat evening depending on the location of the front.

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We will have to see how tonight's potential thunderstorm complex plays out. At this time Grand Rapids is just about average temperature  wise for the month of July. The current departure is now at -0.2. The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 67 at the current time it is clear here with a temperature of 68 and a DP of 63.

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Clouds from the morning MCS to the north have spilled over eastern Iowa all day, helping to keep our temp in the upper 80s so far.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well I won't be sleeping tonight.  Earlier it looked to be farther south of GR, now not so much.  yikes.  



--Damaging winds and heavy rainfall possible late tonight--

Latest CAMs seem to have locked in on the farther north/northeast
track of the most severe convection later tonight, still hinting
at the possibility of a significant bow echo/potential derecho
impacting much or parts of wrn Lwr MI. This may be a high impact
severe weather event occurring while many folks will be sleeping,
so messaging the possibility of damaging/destructive winds well
beforehand is critical.

Timing still looks to be after 11 pm, with potential for a large
bow echo sweeping across Lk MI overnight. Also some potential for
the warm advection wing ahead of the main line becoming active a
couple hours beforehand. If that does occur, we could have some
tornado potential with discrete cells since the warm front will be
draped over the area. HRRR has 0-1km SRH of 150-200 m2/s2 with
LCLs below 1km. A QLCS-type tornado threat may also develop/exist
within the main line.

Also of note, in terms of the straight line wind potential, HRRR
still shows 70 kts at 3 km -- of potential descending rear inflow
jet into the back of that line. So some isolated pockets of
destructive 80+ mph winds seem plausible later tonight.
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Dew points have been awful around here the past few days. My weather station has been consistently registering 73F-78F dew points during the daylight hours...had a 78.4 earlier today. Probably a couple of more days to go before any improvement. Yuck.

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  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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25 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

On my dew point site, I saw an 88 Dew Point in north central Iowa. I don’t know the reporting station. There was a location near that site showing an 84. Is this accurate Iowans? If it is, I don’t recall seeing an 88 Dew before. 

IDK but I'd probably drown in an 88 dew point...lol. I did see a couple of 81 DPs up that way on the NWS current conditions map so who knows...

  • 20-21 snowfalls >=3": (Jan 1: 4.5"), (Apr 20: 3.1"); Season total: 15.5" (87% of normal 17.8")
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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

On my dew point site, I saw an 88 Dew Point in north central Iowa. I don’t know the reporting station. There was a location near that site showing an 84. Is this accurate Iowans? If it is, I don’t recall seeing an 88 Dew before. 

Clarion,IA.   It almost looks legit for previous obs. They put these sensors smack dab in the middle of corn/soy fields and on days like today you know those crops are exhaling like crazy. I think a 88F dew point 5-10 years ago in MN was verified in Moorehead and in the middle of a cornfield, so who knows. image.png.ff5af277f6ead9f859337a4c3c6dcb07.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

On my dew point site, I saw an 88 Dew Point in north central Iowa. I don’t know the reporting station. There was a location near that site showing an 84. Is this accurate Iowans? If it is, I don’t recall seeing an 88 Dew before. 

The 84 was at Algona. Lots of 82-83's today that I trust. 84 might be a stretch, but as mentioned above; who really knows for sure.

image.thumb.png.b6ddc30c532100c306da0790615932e4.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Real nice local storms from a summer “cold front”. . Picked up between 1/3-1/2” rain.   
We started at 95* and it’s 81* now.  
That’s a nice change. Air smells good too.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It is simply unreal how we are already in late July and Cedar Rapids still hasn't gotten any severe thunderstorms. I really wish those storms in Wisconsin could move down here tonight (except for the wind) It is still so dry here, looks like I will finish July with less than an inch of rain. Unreal how areas to the east and south of us just keep getting storms. Especially Chicago, Milwaukee, and Kansas City. Cedar Rapids for some reason just gets screwed every time. 

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1 minute ago, Iowawx said:

It is simply unreal how we are already in late July and Cedar Rapids still hasn't gotten any severe thunderstorms. I really wish those storms in Wisconsin could move down here tonight. It is still so dry here, looks like I will finish July with less than an inch of rain. Unreal how areas to the east and south of us just keep getting storms. Especially Chicago, Milwaukee, and Kansas City. Cedar Rapids for some reason just gets screwed every time. 

Are you serious?  If you remember we had a derecho last year.  I for one have been glad we haven’t had severe weather this year.  

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Just now, BMT said:

Are you serious?  If you remember we had a derecho last year.  I for one have been glad we haven’t had severe weather this year.  

I didn't realize that was forecast up there, we don't need that but a thunderstorm with heavy rain to get us out of the worsening drought would be nice.

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22 minutes ago, Sparky said:

There’s a station reporting errors in northeast Ia somewhere for awhile (at least since last week) now and it’s screwing up the maps here and elsewhere!

Yeah, the bad station is annoying.  It appears to be Independence.  You'd think someone at Mesonet would notice and remove the station.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 minute ago, Iowawx said:

I didn't realize that was forecast up there, we don't need that but a thunderstorm with heavy rain to get us out of the worsening drought would be nice.

I don't want any severe weather, but we badly need some solid storms with heavy rain.  Unfortunately, there is nothing in sight.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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