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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I don't want any severe weather, but we badly need some solid storms with heavy rain.  Unfortunately, there is nothing in sight.

Why do you think Cedar Rapids has gotten missed so many times this summer? We've had so many "active" patterns that just didn't materialize around here, but always did to the east and south. 

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On the bright side, we are likely at the peak of summer. At least I hope. The heat wave back in June was a few degrees hotter, but dew points were much lower. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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1 hour ago, Iowawx said:

Why do you think Cedar Rapids has gotten missed so many times this summer? We've had so many "active" patterns that just didn't materialize around here, but always did to the east and south. 

It’s just what happens in spots every year. It happened here in recent summers too when CR did much better.

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My station which seems to show dews on the high side showed a max dew of 85° today! I’ve had up to 84° dews in past years, but can’t remember it being 85°. It’s right beside the sweet corn patch and hay field. Not sure how much that contributes to dews. Maximum heat index to 117° and I’ve seen up to mid 120°s for that in past years.

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I have tracked  these dewpoints  closely  for past 6 years.  Mine had never been higher than 83.  But 85 twice this week!  Ive noticed many 80 or higher dp across Iowa today. Mine is similar  usually  to the Fairfield  airport. The Washington  county one seems quite high frequently.  I was between oskaloosa and Freemont at a business  surrounded  by corn, it was horrid!

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3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I have tracked  these dewpoints  closely  for past 6 years.  Mine had never been higher than 83.  But 85 twice this week!  Ive noticed many 80 or higher dp across Iowa today. Mine is similar  usually  to the Fairfield  airport. The Washington  county one seems quite high frequently.  I was between oskaloosa and Freemont at a business  surrounded  by corn, it was horrid!

I’ve tracked or kept dew point etc records since 2002. Here’s a table I made. 9th row from the bottom has max dews per year. Other tables I make also have dates of occurrence.
Sorry my image isn’t sharp on here. It helps to click or tap on the image.
 

 

image.jpeg

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This Tsunami in AK with a 8 ish earthquake seems to be the real deal.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Debuque may get a good cell with heavy rain.

This is a real nice soaker for Dubuque as the western end of the line back-builds.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

TOM going to get in on the action--  MD 1384 graphic

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1384.html

Indeed it was Grizz, I was awaken by the thunder, winds & rain pelting my window.  Can't remember what time it was but it had to be around 2:00am when I looked at the radar on my phone.  Lot's of wires down in the areas just to my east and north of here.  Thankfully, I have power today and lucked out again 2 nights in a row....phew!

 

I just looked at the radar loop and it appears the line was in a weakening trend as it rolled through N Cook.  What is concerning, my sister and her family is camping in an area in SE WI just north of Kenosha area and that is where you could see that vortex spinning on radar.  I gotta check in with her and the family this morning.

Looking back at where the MOD Severe wx threat was forecast it looks like a bust north of MKE down into GRR.  Last nights RPM and IBM GRAF model hit this line of storms almost spot on.  Skilling was pumped up on this potential and it delivered.  The line kept back building west that even E IA is getting nailed right now.

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

This is a real nice soaker for Dubuque as the western end of the line back-builds.

Yes much of the the rest of the line was pretty narrow with probably more wind than rain, especially by the time it reached n. IL.

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Over the past few days, I've had between  2.5" to 3" of rain if you add up all 3 events based on local reports.  I'm extremely pleased with the outcome of how this wx pattern developed.  Now, it's time to dry out and enjoy some beautiful drier and cooler air from our friends up north...Hello Canadian air!  After enduring some heat and humidity this past week, I can't wait to have the windows open later this afternoon and prob won't close them throughout the entire week next week.  Models keep cooling temps into the upper 70's now for a number of days in a row...ahhh, this is going to feel amazing!

Now, it's going to be E NE/S IA/N MO turn to see some severe wx potential...some of you are going to finish the month off with a bang.  Similarly, the models are suggesting a corridor of heavy precip across parts of this region.  Something tells me the Euro is off and too far N and this will eventually end up a bit farther S.  @Clinton @snowstorm83 and the rest of the OMA/LNK peeps are looking good ATM.  These set ups usually end up sagging farther south it seems when most models are north.  Just like it happened over here last night.  We'll have to see.

 

1.png

 

0z GEFS...

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_15.png

 

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Today will likely be the hottest day of the year, I'm expecting a high of 100 and the heat index to be in the 110 range by late afternoon.  KCI with their consistently broken equipment claims to have not reached 100 degrees in 3 years, so that streak will likely end today.  The heat advisory has been extended through 9pm tomorrow so it will take some time to push this heat out and move the cooler air in.  Hoping to get some big boomers Friday or Sat night, I would think any storm that forms could quickly become severe.

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On 7/27/2021 at 12:57 PM, Northland09 said:

Been a while since I have posted on here, hope everyone has been doing good and enjoying the summer! Personally I can't wait until it is over with. I am soooo done with this heat. Especially when you work outside for a living. But on the positive side, I'm so used to it now that at least 90 degrees doesn't feel too bad unless the dew points are ridiculous like we will be experiencing today and tomorrow. Going to go work outside for a couple more hours and then I will become a hermit :P I was kind of bummed yesterday as we were supposed to get some good storms but they never came past Hinckley towards the cities. To be honest, as much as a storm would be nice, an all day light rain would be even better. Give it a chance to actually get into the ground and benefit us a bit. Hopefully we get rain soon as we need it just as bad as those to the west. As far as winter goes, pretty sure it's going to be a doozy. We always had a rule of thumb to live by when we plowed. If it was a rainy summer, it will be a dry winter. If it was a dry summer, it will be a snowy winter. I'm quite excited to see what this coming season brings!

From what I have been told, too young to remember myself, 1988 drought was followed by a very cold and snowy 88-89 winter for Minnesota.  So cold and snowy that the MN DNR was giving out deer feed for wild deer who were struggling through the deep snow and cold.  That would never happen today though with the risk of spreading CWD, among other reasons.

2012 was followed by a very snowy winter, albeit didn't really get going until late January.  

On the flip side 2006 was a very dry summer followed by an equally dry and warm winter...  

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36 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

On the flip side 2006 was a very dry summer followed by an equally dry and warm winter...  

Right now, holding out hope that the last warm and dry winter makes up for that.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Here is my area there we no storms last night or this morning I recorded a total of 0.10" of rain fall. The last few years here in my area there have NOT been much in the way of thunder and lightning. The last two years there were very few and so far this year is even worst. While there have been periods of heavy rain there most have happened with little or no thunder. 

With the official high so far this month of 89 this will be the first July that it has not reached 90 or better since 2014 and only the 5th time in the last 30 years. It has now became cloudy and the temperature is now at 75 here with the clouds

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Looking back at where the MOD Severe wx threat was forecast it looks like a bust north of MKE down into GRR.

Yes, there were no storms here last night or this morning. It was a warm night here with the temperature hanging around 78 most of the night before dropping down to 73 during the shower when 0.10" of rain fell here.

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Cedar Rapids is just incredibly unlucky this month.

Here is Friday night into Saturday morning

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's nasty, 79 degree DP is the highest of the year here.  The breeze is the only helping today.

Current conditions at

Clinton, MO (KGLY)

Lat: 38.36°NLon: 93.68°WElev: 823ft.
sct.png

Fair

93°F

34°C

Humidity 63%
Wind Speed Vrbl 6 G 12 mph
Barometer 30.06 in
Dewpoint 79°F (26°C)
Visibility 9.00 mi
Heat Index 110°F (43°C)
Last update 29 Jul 1:15 pm CDT
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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Cedar Rapids is just incredibly unlucky this month.

Here is Friday night into Saturday morning

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

That’s one of the few models that gives me decent rainfall, so I’m not to hopeful yet beings I’m riding the edge. At least it shifted a hair ne.

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My heat just got upgraded to an excessive heat warning ☹️.  Currently 96 with a Heat index of 111

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values between
  105 and 110 this afternoon, and near 105 Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CDT Friday.
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Like yesterday, the temp has risen to 90º here.  However, the dew yesterday was 78º, but it has fallen to 69º this afternoon... a very noticeable difference.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Like yesterday, the temp has risen to 90º here.  However, the dew yesterday was 78º, but it has fallen to 69º this afternoon... a very noticeable difference.

Still 84 dewpoint  here today! And it made 90f

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Didn’t hit our expected 101* today.  High of 99*,  humidity at 50%.  
 

They’re forecasting 100* tomorrow but we’ll see.  With luck our run of century marks are over and out!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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94/79 - Heat index 112 at the 5 pm LNK obs. Pretty ridiculous considering there's been like an inch of rain this month lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Like yesterday, the temp has risen to 90º here.  However, the dew yesterday was 78º, but it has fallen to 69º this afternoon... a very noticeable difference.

It didn’t feel much different than yesterday down here. It felt pretty bad and even I really sweated when working outdoors. It has to be tropical like to get me sweating doing regular work. I saw the dew at 79° at one point this afternoon. Likely hit 80° but I haven’t checked yet.

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8 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Cedar Rapids is just incredibly unlucky this month.

Here is Friday night into Saturday morning

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

The 0Z CAMs shifted the heaviest axis back northeast of Omaha too for the most part. Hope it’s not a trend. I held off watering this entire week once Friday looked like a good chance of decent rain.

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49 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The 0Z CAMs shifted the heaviest axis back northeast of Omaha too for the most part. Hope it’s not a trend. I held off watering this entire week once Friday looked like a good chance of decent rain.

If that materialized, just a repeat  of the  pattern since early may.  A dry 10 to 18 days followed by a deluge in wapello,  davis, Jefferson. Vanburen  counties.

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Happy Friday!  It's 5:55am as I write this and the sun rose today at 5:43am local time.  It's a wonderful start to the morning with an air temp of 66F and a very comfy DP 56F.  My goodness, does it feel good to have the windows open and let in the refreshing air.  I woke up in the middle of the night from the gusty NNE winds off the lake.  Today is going to be a wonderful day...#manifest

 

 

 

 

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The lake effect clouds blowing in off LM reminds me of those colder autumn and winter days...what may be coming down the road???  It'll be here soon enough...a perfect wind trajectory downwind the entire length of the Lake into NE IL.  #winteronmymind

Static map

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19 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Well it is a real cool late July day here today at this time the current temperature here at my house is 70 with full sunshine. The overnight low was 57 both here at my house and at GRR.

Same here, but we have intermittent clouds and a very nice breeze.  A stupendously fantastic Friday!

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41 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It's currently 90 with a heat index of 101, the dew point is 75 down a couple of notches from yesterday but still miserable and no breeze today.

I’m with you. Today is just as bad as the rest of the week. No breeze at all and dews are mid 70’s at least. My son just asked me why it’s not cooler today as that’s what the forecast said. I told him NWS Hastings has had a rough summer around here with their forecasts. 

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woke up to a surprise tstorm this morning and a couple of the loudest booms I've heard in a long time from my house. Absolutely dumped rain for a while. That's a good thing, bc I'm not too sure how much we will end up getting from tonight's rains based on model trends.

Received 1.37" of rain in about an hour and a half. These cells weren't very big either, so a lot of town missed out unfortunately.

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