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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Pretty consistent moderate rain for the past 3-4 hours. Not a drought buster by any means. 61°F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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At 8AM in Key West FL the wind was SE at 35 with gust to 46. The temperature was 77 with a DP of 76 with rain falling. The wind has been gusting over 40 MPH now for over 6 hours. While not a hurricane at this time  Elsa is letting her presence known.

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I'm concerned the Friday MCS activity will dive south of my area, just like the last big event.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Went to Bismarck, ND with my girlfriend over the long weekend to visit her parents. She grew up there so she showed me around. I've never been there. Cool city!

On Saturday we went out to the badlands in far western ND. Pretty amazing out there. Saw a lot of bison, wild horses and even an antelope. Very hot and dry out there. At one point we reached 104° with only 15% humidity. 

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm concerned the Friday MCS activity will dive south of my area, just like the last big event.

The GFS just pushed everything even farther south at the end of the week, pretty much has nothing around here.  SOB.  🤬

The GFS was one of the first models to correctly push everything south last time.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS just pushed everything even farther south at the end of the week, pretty much has nothing around here.  SOB.  🤬

The GFS was one of the first models to correctly push everything south last time.

Wow this looks familiar, man I hope some of that trends back north!

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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The Canadian and UK have the heavy rain across Iowa, but those models did the same thing last time and were very wrong.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Earlier many models were showing much of the heavier stuff missing mostly further north than the last event a few weeks ago so I was hopeful we should be good if it shifts south, but it’s shifting to far, and maybe the late week event wasn’t totally included when I checked it.

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Here's the latest Euro.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The North wind has ushered the wildfire smoke down here. Had to check and make sure there were no structure fires nearby cuz the smell was so strong. 66°F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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July indeed has started hot and dry.

Not a drop of rain in July (not that I need any yet). But it has been scorching heat, humidity  and sun the first 6 days of July.

5 straight  days of 90f plus. Highest dewpoint  was Monday  at 79f.

So 15 days above 90F all since June 1st

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The Euro has been holding steady on the idea of a lead line of storms to form out in IA on Fri into Sat am.  Last night's 0z Euro/EPS showing this potential pretty clearly.

2.png

 

0z Euro...what's interesting about this system over the weekend is the fact that the models show a linear convective area forming right over the center of the 500mb vortex.  

1.png

 

Friday night boomers for KC/N MO???  Big time CAPE showing up...#juice

3.png

 

 

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No rain here overnight although there was lightning to the north last night. The overnight low here was a warm 71 and that is the current temperature here with the DP at 67 that is a little lower then most of yesterday and it makes a difference as it feels nice out this morning. The official high for the month at Grand Rapids so far is 89 and so far this summer GR has had 2 90° days (officially) At Muskegon the high for July so far is 86 and for the season 89. At Kalamazoo the high so far this month is 90 and they have recorded 8 days of 90 or better. At Holland the high so far this July is 88 and the high for the season so far is 89. To the east at Lansing the high so far this month is 91 for the season the high so far has been 94 and they now have had 7 days of 90 or better. You can see the influence that Lake Michigan has on summer temperatures.

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I have thunderstorms possible today as a cold front moves through.  Not a lot of rain anticipated but some cooler refreshing air will take over for a day.  The GFS continues to show excessive rainfall this weekend for many areas that don't need it.

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12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I have thunderstorms possible today as a cold front moves through.  Not a lot of rain anticipated but some cooler refreshing air will take over for a day.  The GFS continues to show excessive rainfall this weekend for many areas that don't need it.

Same here.

 

I’m afraid much of the late week event could miss to the sw. of here. Some of the models are showing that and have shifted south again. 

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1 hour ago, Sparky said:

Same here.

 

I’m afraid much of the late week event could miss to the sw. of here. Some of the models are showing that and have shifted south again. 

What's even scarier is how similar the precipitation maps for this weekend look compared to what happened last weekend.

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Enough rain around here that irrigation systems have been turned off again. This is almost unheard of in July. More storms Friday night into Saturday could be an MCS moving Southeast through the area. What we don’t need is a hailstorm. The corn and soybeans look incredible. Corn just started tasseling today. My brother in law says his crops look the best that he can ever remember. 

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Beautiful 72*F out, 49 DP. THESE are the days I signed up for.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Just now, james1976 said:

Did fall just arrive? Low gray clouds with a north breeze and only 64°. Love it.

Picked up 0.18" today from occasional showers.

Definitely didn't feel like July here yesterday. Actually had to put on a light sweatshirt to feel comfortable outside at 4pm.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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A nice little cell earlier this evening was right on my doorstep, but sadly just  passed under 1 mile south again. Could hear the downpour where up to 1” fell two miles south with only a trace here, though had .03” from a previous shower.  There was a little thunder at times.ED3E3494-962A-4B21-B45F-B754102F247E.thumb.jpeg.7e1aa21e1fef25839aaad6461df84c07.jpegFC08F56B-2F40-4C57-86D0-587EFA90FC40.thumb.jpeg.6140fd3c945960672e64ad502257fcf1.jpeg9F451506-5CCB-4448-B4C9-9BAD657DFD73.thumb.jpeg.06243de8050e05ca325726a1427b3f68.jpeg

For some reason this site doesn’t let me upload any panoramic photos anymore. 

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7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Did fall just arrive? Low gray clouds with a north breeze and only 64°. Love it.

Picked up 0.18" today from occasional showers.

Speak of which, I'll be getting a taste of that today as temps are only supposed to peak around 70F with a stiff NE wind off the lake.  I took a look up north in the arrowhead of MN and temps are bottoming out in the mid 30's!  Crazy for early July.  Frost in July???  I'd say that is pretty rare but maybe someone else can comment on that.

 

Tab2FileL.png?9909629f27da873537f091bb00

 

 

 

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The summer version of the Hudson Bay Block appears to be strong enough to push the main show south.  The 0z Euro is now agreeing with what the GFS/GEFS have been showing for the last couple days.

2.png

 

0z EPS gives some hope for those in IA and N IL...

1.png

 

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The JMA weeklies suggesting this pattern that is setting up over the next week or so to continue through July.  I think there is some heat dialing up for the Upper MW and parts of the Plains later next week but most of our Sub, seasonal to BN temps seem to be the main theme and the active pattern shall continue.  Monsoon in the SW seems to be on the uptick on the back half of the month.

Week 2...

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D0712_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D0712_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

3.png

Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D0712_gl2.png

Y202107.D0712_gl0.png

 

 

The SST's in the NE PAC are on Fuego....it's interesting to see a lot of the ocean showing pockets of BN temps, esp across the areas in the N PAC/Aleutians, coastal Cali/Baja and of course the equatorial PAC.

 

Y202107.D0712_gls.png

 

 

 

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The trend has been favorable for my area Friday.  Most models show some decent rain/storm action throughout the day, adding up to an inch for many where the best band sets up.

The weekend is still up in the air.  Models are forecasting a low to cut off, but there is disagreement with placement.  The NAM and Euro track the low south and east of Iowa, leaving us dry.  Other models cut the low off over southeast Iowa, dumping big rain over my area.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro continues to be south of other models.  Here are the Euro and UK.... very different.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Frost across much of the Arrowhead of MN this past morning. Hibbing at 34F set a record. Silver Bay at 32F is latest in the season I've seen a legit 32F that I can remember for the Arrowheadimage.thumb.png.883b9bd781515013cd1b15ed438680ee.png

 
 
 

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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6 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Frost across much of the Arrowhead of MN this past morning. Hibbing at 34F set a record. Silver Bay at 32F is latest in the season I've seen a legit 32F that I can remember for the Arrowheadimage.thumb.png.883b9bd781515013cd1b15ed438680ee.png

 
 
 

 

Brrrr...now that's cold for mid Summer!  ORD only topped out at 68F yesterday under thick overcast.  Felt like Oct 8th instead of July 8th.  I see it's still a bit nippy up that way this morning as well, but moreso over the U.P.

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This cut-off low is going to be one rare looking feature across the central CONUS over the course of the weekend into Monday.  Quite the blocked up pattern will create a situation where we see storms fire up and rotate around the cut-off 500mb vortex.  You don't see these type of set ups to often in the summer...sign of the times??  

0z Euro through Mon...

1.png

 

Looking out into next week, another repeat???  Easter ag belt going to get soaked....bullseye near @OttumwaSnomow and where the majority of our corn is grown...Non GMO please!

0z EPS...

2.png

 

0z GFS...

gfs_apcpn_ncus_40.png

 

I see a good signal for another nocturnal MCS next week Wed pm into Thu that fires up in IA and blossoms into a linear formation over MO/IL as a stalled out front then hangs around the eastern MW late next week.  Boy, what a fun pattern setting up for us wx enthusiasts who enjoying tracking storms.

 

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I'm sitting here this morning watching the sunrise and I notice that this is the first morning I no longer smell the flowers blooming or the sweetness in the air of what has been probably the longest spring of my lifetime. 

I think if there's any resemblance of a true summer in my future, now til the end of the month will be about the best strike at it we are going to see down here.

It runs outside of July's time frame, but the next 3-5 weeks are going to be weird. Should see the stages set up as the month closes for another heatwave over the NW. Lots to watch.

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