July 2021 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

I had a bit of an epiphany this morning when flipping through the wx maps.  In fact, I've been seeing this more often than not this summer as to how the pattern has been shaping up.  The big kicker to me when this summer season began was how wet and cool the southern Plains have been, esp down in TX/OK.  Something different was manifesting down there and let's not forget, the blossoming Monsoon this year, esp near NM so far but I do believe it will fire up more often across AZ/NV/UT/CO later next week into the rest of July and then Aug.  I really began downloading this information right around the Summer Solstice when I saw what could be a preview of what the pattern leading into the Autumn/Winter season may look like.  Actually, it was strikingly similar to what the CFSv2 has been suggesting over the course of the past couple months.  Let me show you what I'm seeing and beginning to really believe that there could be an interesting LRC next Autumn.

First, the all important month of October where it all begins and wouldn't ya know it, the CFSv2 is showing lower heights across where??? 

The southern Plains....what else do we see...bigly blocking across Canada....and depending on the length of next year's LRC, it will likely cycle through in Dec.  Well then, what does the model show for Dec???

 

December...here's a map that I have NOT seen in prob over a Decade for the month of December for the entire CONUS....

Let's compare the next couple weeks off the 0z EPS precip anomalies and then the Dec precip maps...while not a carbon copy due to seasonal variances as the colder pattern settles in, it is to me showing a very active potential across the majority of the central/eastern CONUS.

 

Coast-to-Coast action???  You don't have to ask me if I'm getting that excitement starting to percolate for next winter, esp how it ended for those of us who experienced a memorable late Jan into Feb.  

In a nut shell, I'm thrilled to see that the second half of July will likely produce a lot of activity for many of us and prob on the cooler and comfortable variety.  Drought busting rains are almost a certainty IMHO by the time summer is over across the MW/GL's.  

On a side note, I literally just went on Gary's blog and saw this post from yesterday..."rare summer cyclone"...can't make it up when the universe guides like-minded people...

[Clinton]

Its going to be a hot and humid day today before the storms roll in overnight.  This cut-off low will likely keep my temps in the low to mid 70s over the weekend.  This wild part of the pattern with cut-off lows that soak some of us should continue for the next 2 weeks. I like the active pattern but unfortunately some will get to much rain and flooding will be a problem on the MO and Ohio rivers.

[Andie]

The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z HRRR has northeast Iowa into northern Illinois getting nothing for the entire weekend event.  The first round missed southwest and now the leftover clouds may keep this evening's storms southwest as well.  If we miss out later then it may be game over.  The NAM and HWF-FV3 show the action farther northeast later today, so there is still hope.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[BMT]

Full Sun here - its beautiful outside.  

[Grizzcoat]

First time in at least 30 years NWS in DSM has issued a svr TS for softball hail in C.IA. And headed for down town DSM.

[Tom]

Interesting, both the Euro/Ukie have trended north with heavy downpours on Sunday as the SLP slowly tracks through N MO/N IL....

12z Euro...

 

12z Ukie...

[Hawkeye]

A complex of storms has developed north and east of Mason City.  That is a good sign for my area because that's where our stuff would have to form.  It should dive southeastward if it holds together.

[Clinton]

18z 3km NAM soggy weekend ahead

[Grizzcoat]

been sometime since I have seen such a large area of "red" on the thunderstorm outlook from SPC-

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Bryan1117]

57 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

Absolutely love how the enhanced areas split the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas... the continuing theme of very little to no severe weather in the local area during 2021 continues. 

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Absolutely love how the enhanced areas split the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas... the continuing theme of very little to no severe weather in the local area during 2021 continues. 

This could be good news for you if it verifies. 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Grilling burgers and brats. Deck is on the west side of the house. My gosh it’s hot. 92 and feels like 100 with a 72 dew. Storms will have a lot of fuel if they verify tonight. 

[Andie]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

It’s just so odd Tom.  Even stranger than last summer.   We’ll have a high of 74* tomorrow!  Crazy for us in July.  No rain with it but a 50% chance Sunday evening.  
I’m very concerned about our coming winter.  Keep watching this Southern Plains outlook.  I pass it on to the City Fleet Manager to hopefully help them prepare.  

[clintbeed1993]

Heat index of 107 in St Joe with a 77 dewpoint..and I have to mow the yard. FML

[Hawkeye]

Storms with heavy rain are just about to dive barely to my southwest.  All I will get is thunder and light rain.  Ugh.

[Hawkeye]

Bud and Sparky appear to be in a good spot over the next hour or two.

[bud2380]

Just started pouring. 

[jcwxguy]

Hope this verifies

[bud2380]

.51” here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

77 dew at 8pm.  

[jcwxguy]

Expanded

[Grizzcoat]

as did this-

[Bryan1117]

21 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Expanded

Wow, didn’t see this coming… I threw in the towel too early perhaps.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jcwxguy]

[CentralNebWeather]

Moving my way. 

[jcwxguy]

Watch soon

[jcwxguy]

24 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Watch soon

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Horrible storm around here. Winds 75-80 mph. No power, small hail. Transformers on fire. Trees blocking highways. I have huge limbs down that I can see. Too much lightning to go outside. 

[CentralNebWeather]

I have a few videos, but no WiFi with no power. I’ll hope to post tomorrow. My brother in law east of town had his 4 wheeler blow off of his trailer to the other side of the farm. He is fearful of crop damage. 

[Stormy]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Bud and Sparky appear to be in a good spot over the next hour or two.

Storms were pretty lame here and got a nice rain though was a little disappointed in the amount to think I was in the main band. The first severe warned storm weakened just as it moved in and caught just the northeast edge with barely 0.20”. After other showers the last big cell took the same path as the first and mostly missed. Got 0.03” before evening rainfall of 0.60”. Had some vivid lightning and loud thunder at times. The sweet corn in the garden went nearly flat from a brisk easterly wind. Must’ve not been rooted very deeply. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Most people outside surveying the damage. Large trees blown over 2 blocks north of me that pulled down power lines and bent power poles. Electric department says the whole county is a mess. No idea when power will be restored. They said no sleep tonight for them. 

[snowstorm83]

Squall line has hit southeast Lincoln, sounds bad

[jcwxguy]

[Bryan1117]

Lots of damage in Southwest Omaha, our basketball hoop was completely knocked over by the winds and blown into the gutters above my garage… sucks because we just had new gutters installed in June, ugh.

Over 100K without power in the metro area! Crazy, intense line of storms that took aim at us tonight here.

[Grizzcoat]

koma-

KOMA 100531Z 36046G78KT 1/2SM R14R/0500V1800FT +TSRA FG FEW010 BKN024CB OVC070 17/16 RMK AO2 PK WND 36083/0520 WSHFT 0506 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 CONS LTGICCCCACG ALQDS TS MOV SE P0022 T01720161 $
KOMA 100523Z 01055G83KT 1 1/4SM R14R/0500VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ FEW010 BKN024CB OVC070 19/18 RMK AO2 PK WND 36083/0520 WSHFT 0506 VIS 1/4V5 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 CONS LTGICCCCACG ALQDS TS MOV SE P0000 T01940178 $

Gusted to 95mph at 12:20AM!!!!!

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m stuck out in Stanton Iowa with 70-75 mph winds.

Lost power back at our house too

[OmahaSnowFan]

HOLY CRAP!! Sitting here in my car and just had a bolt hit maybe 200 feet from me! And I got it on dash cam! So close I could see it hit the ground and break up into beads!

[OmahaSnowFan]

ENTIRE tree falling caught on video here in Omaha

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Up to 191k without power now.

[Hawkeye]

While it sucks that this event appears to be a dud for many in northeastern Iowa, the last thing Cedar Rapids needs is another damaging wind storm.

[Tom]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

While it sucks that this event appears to be a dud for many in northeastern Iowa, the last thing Cedar Rapids needs is another damaging wind storm.

I concur, I'm ok with missing out on the severe stuff...give me some garden variety downpours that should come late tonight into Sun.  We could use another drink from nature.

 

High rez models spinning the ULL in a perfect location to allow for some heavy precip rotating from east to west across N IL...

[Tom]

I got my eyes on late next week/weekend as HP looks to dominate the region ushering in comfy DP's and temps near 80F...ahh yes, this is the type of summer I absolutely enjoy in the MW...bouts of action and tranquility...gotta love it!

On a side note, the Monsoon continues to deliver mountain rains over the past couple days in Arizona.  Next week looks even better as the pattern fires up consecutive days of storm action.  Keep it comin'.

Meantime, 0z EPS overall a cooler look for the next 5-15 days across the majority of the central/southern Sub....

[Tom]

What do you think???  Time for an Autumn thread???

[CentralNebWeather]

Couple videos from last night when the storm arrived. Got power back at 2:20 AM. Going to head out and check damage around the area. 

[Clinton]

Storms here were very tame compared to what some others had. Rain began around 4am and my total at this time is .70.  Heavy storms expected this afternoon but I believe most of the severe storms should be off to my south.