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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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I had a bit of an epiphany this morning when flipping through the wx maps.  In fact, I've been seeing this more often than not this summer as to how the pattern has been shaping up.  The big kicker to me when this summer season began was how wet and cool the southern Plains have been, esp down in TX/OK.  Something different was manifesting down there and let's not forget, the blossoming Monsoon this year, esp near NM so far but I do believe it will fire up more often across AZ/NV/UT/CO later next week into the rest of July and then Aug.  I really began downloading this information right around the Summer Solstice when I saw what could be a preview of what the pattern leading into the Autumn/Winter season may look like.  Actually, it was strikingly similar to what the CFSv2 has been suggesting over the course of the past couple months.  Let me show you what I'm seeing and beginning to really believe that there could be an interesting LRC next Autumn.

First, the all important month of October where it all begins and wouldn't ya know it, the CFSv2 is showing lower heights across where??? 

The southern Plains....what else do we see...bigly blocking across Canada....and depending on the length of next year's LRC, it will likely cycle through in Dec.  Well then, what does the model show for Dec???

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December...here's a map that I have NOT seen in prob over a Decade for the month of December for the entire CONUS....

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Let's compare the next couple weeks off the 0z EPS precip anomalies and then the Dec precip maps...while not a carbon copy due to seasonal variances as the colder pattern settles in, it is to me showing a very active potential across the majority of the central/eastern CONUS.

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Coast-to-Coast action???  You don't have to ask me if I'm getting that excitement starting to percolate for next winter, esp how it ended for those of us who experienced a memorable late Jan into Feb.  

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In a nut shell, I'm thrilled to see that the second half of July will likely produce a lot of activity for many of us and prob on the cooler and comfortable variety.  Drought busting rains are almost a certainty IMHO by the time summer is over across the MW/GL's.  

On a side note, I literally just went on Gary's blog and saw this post from yesterday..."rare summer cyclone"...can't make it up when the universe guides like-minded people...

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Its going to be a hot and humid day today before the storms roll in overnight.  This cut-off low will likely keep my temps in the low to mid 70s over the weekend.  This wild part of the pattern with cut-off lows that soak some of us should continue for the next 2 weeks. I like the active pattern but unfortunately some will get to much rain and flooding will be a problem on the MO and Ohio rivers.

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The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

The next 10 days in No Tx will see slightly below average temps. 90-95* 

Rain chances this week.  Definitely different for us mid July.   What surprises will August bring? 
Not your typical Texas summer for sure.    
 

Tom,  No Tx can pass on last winters break down. We were, and still are not, prepared to repeat.  But Mother Nature will have her way.  The Southern Plains are in the cross hairs again.  I’m passing the word to prepare but I’m not sure how many are listening.   I’m gathering what I need to stay warm and have some light at night when Ercot fails us.  
I’ve passed the word to the City Fleet Manager, my husband, so Ft Worth will be better prepared.  
 

Keep me abreast. I’ll try to get word to authorities down here.  
Thanks

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

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The 12z HRRR has northeast Iowa into northern Illinois getting nothing for the entire weekend event.  The first round missed southwest and now the leftover clouds may keep this evening's storms southwest as well.  If we miss out later then it may be game over.  The NAM and HWF-FV3 show the action farther northeast later today, so there is still hope.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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First time in at least 30 years NWS in DSM has issued a svr TS for softball hail in C.IA. And headed for down town DSM.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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A complex of storms has developed north and east of Mason City.  That is a good sign for my area because that's where our stuff would have to form.  It should dive southeastward if it holds together.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

Good work!  Keep the word out bc I do foresee an extended winter this year down there, prob for the majority of the eastern CONUS for that matter.

It’s just so odd Tom.  Even stranger than last summer.   We’ll have a high of 74* tomorrow!  Crazy for us in July.  No rain with it but a 50% chance Sunday evening.  
I’m very concerned about our coming winter.  Keep watching this Southern Plains outlook.  I pass it on to the City Fleet Manager to hopefully help them prepare.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Storms with heavy rain are just about to dive barely to my southwest.  All I will get is thunder and light rain.  Ugh.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Bud and Sparky appear to be in a good spot over the next hour or two.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Bud and Sparky appear to be in a good spot over the next hour or two.

Storms were pretty lame here and got a nice rain though was a little disappointed in the amount to think I was in the main band. The first severe warned storm weakened just as it moved in and caught just the northeast edge with barely 0.20”. After other showers the last big cell took the same path as the first and mostly missed. Got 0.03” before evening rainfall of 0.60”. Had some vivid lightning and loud thunder at times. The sweet corn in the garden went nearly flat from a brisk easterly wind. Must’ve not been rooted very deeply. 

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Lots of damage in Southwest Omaha, our basketball hoop was completely knocked over by the winds and blown into the gutters above my garage… sucks because we just had new gutters installed in June, ugh.

Over 100K without power in the metro area! Crazy, intense line of storms that took aim at us tonight here.

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koma-

KOMA 100531Z 36046G78KT 1/2SM R14R/0500V1800FT +TSRA FG FEW010 BKN024CB OVC070 17/16 RMK AO2 PK WND 36083/0520 WSHFT 0506 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 CONS LTGICCCCACG ALQDS TS MOV SE P0022 T01720161 $
KOMA 100523Z 01055G83KT 1 1/4SM R14R/0500VP6000FT +TSRA BR SQ FEW010 BKN024CB OVC070 19/18 RMK AO2 PK WND 36083/0520 WSHFT 0506 VIS 1/4V5 LTG DSNT ALQDS RAB17 CONS LTGICCCCACG ALQDS TS MOV SE P0000 T01940178 $

Gusted to 95mph at 12:20AM!!!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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While it sucks that this event appears to be a dud for many in northeastern Iowa, the last thing Cedar Rapids needs is another damaging wind storm.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

While it sucks that this event appears to be a dud for many in northeastern Iowa, the last thing Cedar Rapids needs is another damaging wind storm.

I concur, I'm ok with missing out on the severe stuff...give me some garden variety downpours that should come late tonight into Sun.  We could use another drink from nature.

 

High rez models spinning the ULL in a perfect location to allow for some heavy precip rotating from east to west across N IL...

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_17.png

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I got my eyes on late next week/weekend as HP looks to dominate the region ushering in comfy DP's and temps near 80F...ahh yes, this is the type of summer I absolutely enjoy in the MW...bouts of action and tranquility...gotta love it!

On a side note, the Monsoon continues to deliver mountain rains over the past couple days in Arizona.  Next week looks even better as the pattern fires up consecutive days of storm action.  Keep it comin'.

Meantime, 0z EPS overall a cooler look for the next 5-15 days across the majority of the central/southern Sub....

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