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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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The Heat is ON after today's one day reprieve.  Going to enjoy every bit of it bc I think our seasons 1st Heat Advisory could be issued for parts of N IL later this weekend and into next week.  As tropical moisture flows into the region along with mature crop, we are in the time of year where we see peak DP's unfortunately.  I feel ya for those who live in the agricultural parts of our country, esp in IA.  I could see DP's hitting near 80F during this Heat Wave.

Yesterday evening as the lake enduced CF swept through, the wild fire smoke made it down to ground level and it smelled like someone was burning a fire next door.  I felt like I was up north in the woods of Wisco for a time as it brought back childhood memories.  Smoky skies are in the forecast yet again today as there is an Air Quality Alert in place today.

Overnight model runs are coming in-line with one another that storms erupt over E NE into the central MW region Sun pm into Mon.  "Ring of Fire" pattern fires up during this period and beyond.  The EPS, especially, continues to hold steady for next week as the model "sees" this Ring of Fire ignite.  Quite the Fuel will be present and could possibly bring some dangerous storms IMHO.  The eastern Ag Belt/GL's region in the most ideal place.

0z EPS through months end...

1.png

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Excessive heat watch issued for the KC metro.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
  105 possible.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Johnson KS
  Counties. In Missouri, Platte, Clay and Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
  increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
  particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
  activities.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged period of heat expected. Heat
  indices near 100 or above expected each day. Additionally,
  overnight lows expected to remain above 75 degrees each night,
  leading to minimal relief from
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We now have 20 days of July 2021 in the history books and the mean here at Grand Rapids so far this month is 71.8 and that is -1.0 below average. The high for the month so far is 89 on the 4th and 5th and the low so far is 54 on the 10th There has been a total of 1.56" of rain fall at GRR and that is below the average of 2.49" by this date. While there have been a reported 4 thunderstorms at GRR here at my house I only seen lightning in the distance this month and there were at best only a hand full of thunder claps last month here so here at my house the thunderstorm drought continues. To my surprise there were a few sprinkles here this morning and at this time it is cloudy here and 66 That is also the overnight low here at my house. The official overnight low at the airport looks to be 65.

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Excessive heat watch issued for the KC metro.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to
  105 possible.

* WHERE...In Kansas, Leavenworth, Wyandotte and Johnson KS
  Counties. In Missouri, Platte, Clay and Jackson Counties.

* WHEN...From Friday afternoon through Wednesday evening.

* IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly
  increase the potential for heat related illnesses,
  particularly for those working or participating in outdoor
  activities.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Prolonged period of heat expected. Heat
  indices near 100 or above expected each day. Additionally,
  overnight lows expected to remain above 75 degrees each night,
  leading to minimal relief from

Been to KC many times over the years during summers. As a kid we went to many Royals games and Worlds and Oceans of Fun. Then my brother got a job in KC in 1994 and he and his family have lived in Shawnee ever since. The humidity in KC was almost unbearable on many of our visits. There were times at Worlds of Fun it felt like you were standing in the tropics. The urban heat island just adds to the misery with low temps not dropping that far. 

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Been to KC many times over the years during summers. As a kid we went to many Royals games and Worlds and Oceans of Fun. Then my brother got a job in KC in 1994 and he and his family have lived in Shawnee ever since. The humidity in KC was almost unbearable on many of our visits. There were times at Worlds of Fun it felt like you were standing in the tropics. The urban heat island just adds to the misery with low temps not dropping that far. 

KC seems to have some hot and humid days with no wind to mix the air.  This is the time of year for that.

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We’re in the same hot dull pattern.  
Nothing to report beyond that. 😝

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We will be starting at 7 am and stopping at 2 pm until this heat wave ends.  But because  of the high humidity  and previous  heavy rains our dew is incredible! And it last until noon.  I bet some 80 dewpoints  here  on the way. High made 91 today with high dewpoint  of 78.

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It is a refreshing 61F/61F as I have the windows open allowing the cool air to spill inside.  Prob not going to open them up until late next week as it appears now with all the heat and humidity coming.  Storm chances look hit or miss but I like where I'm sitting to get some precip next week.  Max daytime temps do not look at all that bad compared to those W & NW of here.  I think I can tolerate a few days in the 90F-92F range, but the DP's is where it will get ugly climbing into the low 70's.

@Clinton, I meant to get back to you earlier wrt to your question about a summertime vortex up in Canada late month.  I've been monitoring the models and my call was for a big trough to close out the month for the eastern Sub and last nights runs are starting to sorta lean that way.  The GFS op runs started seeing the stronger -NAO signal displacing the vortex farther south.  An incredibly strong Hudson Bay vortex is forecast to develop.  It'll likely be snowing in the Archipelago...again...where summer snows have been common up that way this season.  A fascinating wx pattern is shaping up to close out July.  The battle of extremes across our Continent is wild from the intense Heat that is shaping up for the central CONUS, Western Wild Fires, cold/snow up north in Canada and let's not forget the amazingly coo & wet Monsoon season that continues to deliver the "goods" in the desert SW.  Speaking of which, this map is eye candy for AZ folks.  In all honesty, I kinda wish I was there to experience what is coming over the next 3 days over there.

1.png

00z GEFS trends...

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_11.png

 

Looking out in the LR, the -EPO is going to be a big time driving force for our wx pattern.  NW Flow aloft coupled with high lat blocking is going to usher in cooler air into the Sub as we roll into August.  The coolest month of the summer season as a whole is looking like a good call for the majority of our Sub.  Big changes are coming next month.  

 

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Classic looking map below of where the "Ring of Fire" pattern is going to shape...riding the edge???  Geeze, talk about being on the periphery of the expansive Heat Dome.

0z EPS total qpf for the rest of the month...

1.png

 

 

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Quick note before I head out to the gym...the JMA weeklies concur with my idea for August...changes are coming...let's enjoy this blast of summer for the 2nd time this season (personally speaking).  Unless, of course, those up in the Upper MW where its been a non stop frying pan.  I'll try to post maps later today.

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8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

We will be starting at 7 am and stopping at 2 pm until this heat wave ends.  But because  of the high humidity  and previous  heavy rains our dew is incredible! And it last until noon.  I bet some 80 dewpoints  here  on the way. High made 91 today with high dewpoint  of 78.

High temperature here was 88° and dew similar. 

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Taking a gander at the JMA weeklies, once we get past this warm spell, the EPO turns negative and blocking holds up top creating a favorable NW Flow pattern aloft ushering in cooler air for our Sub as we get deeper into the 1st part of Aug.  It should get quite wet and active for the central CONUS and ag belt.

 

Week 2...

2.png

Temp/Precip...

Y202107.D2112_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D2112_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...IMO, this period could very well be quite cool and long lasting...

 

Y202107.D2112_gl2.png

 

Y202107.D2112_gl0.png

 

 

 

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GFS hasn't really backed down on it's tune for forecast highs in this upcoming long heatwave. Saw one forecaster's comment that said, it's concerning that it isn't changing and it was the model that caught onto the extreme heat in the NW and Canada first a couple of weeks ago.

Here's Omaha's estimated highs from the 12Z GFS:

7/23- 98

7/24- 95

7/25- 103

7/26- 97

7/27- 104

7/28- 115

7/29-30- 90s with a backdoor cool front

7/31- 106

8/1- 105*

8/2- 106*

8/3- 112*

8/4- 108*

8/5- 109*

8/6- 114*

*= temp at 18Z or 0Z as 21Z wasn't available for those hours. High might be higher those days.

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2 hours ago, james1976 said:

Arrived in Amarillo! Sunny and breezy with 31% humidity and 88°

Not bad there. We hit 95* and 47% humidity in Ft. Worth.   
 

Welcome to Texas.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1626976800-P7I3zfrQtL4.png

 

Well the GFS is obviously cracked out. Not that it's not going to be awful, but that 115 will be more like 105. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

1626976800-P7I3zfrQtL4.png

 

Well the GFS is obviously cracked out. Not that it's not going to be awful, but that 115 will be more like 105. 

The GFS hasn’t backed down AND it was the model that first predicted the record shattering crazy heat for the northwest that no one believed either, so I’m not so sure yet.

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What a difference in air mass this morning.  Currently 76F/72F as the humidity is here to stay.  Starting today, DP's will remain in the 70's (except for Sun), approaching Amazon levels in the upper 70's on Sat and Wed.  This will undoubtedly be the muggiest stretch of the summer, but not so much the hottest as the highest temps thus far this summer have hit 94F when DP's were lower.  Plus, I think the hazy skies will obscure the suns rays a bit as well.

 

 

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Wow, I just took a rain fall measurement and I recorded 1.78" of rain fall here overnight. GRR reported a thunderstorm at 5AM. While that may be true I did not see any lightning or heard and thunder but I do sleep good. There are some thunderstorms to the south west of GR down west of Kalamazoo at this time. most of the night was in the lower 70's but during the rain it fell to 67 at GRR and it fell to 68 here. At this time it is 68 with light rain falling.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Wow, I just took a rain fall measurement and I recorded 1.78" of rain fall here overnight. GRR reported a thunderstorm at 5AM. While that may be true I did not see any lightning or heard and thunder but I do sleep good. There are some thunderstorms to the south west of GR down west of Kalamazoo at this time. most of the night was in the lower 70's but during the rain it fell to 67 at GRR and it fell to 68 here. At this time it is 68 with light rain falling.

I heard one clap of thunder that woke me up around 4:30 on the NE side of GR.  

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My dewpoint  currently  is 77f!!! Ive compared dewpoints  around se Iowa to rest of usa for years.   Most summer days mine is as high or higher than entire usa, even Florida.   This summer has had few  days with breaks in the humidity.  Unlike the drought areas  just to my north. Does anyone have a detailed  map of dewpoints  around the country? Not just  a couple reporting  stations each state? Ohio st twister had nice one, cant find them now.

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

My dewpoint  currently  is 77f!!! Ive compared dewpoints  around se Iowa to rest of usa for years.   Most summer days mine is as high or higher than entire usa, even Florida.   This summer has had few  days with breaks in the humidity.  Unlike the drought areas  just to my north. Does anyone have a detailed  map of dewpoints  around the country? Not just  a couple reporting  stations each state? Ohio st twister had nice one, cant find them now.

Is this good enough?

https://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/USZOOM.fronts.gif 

I’ve noticed several se. Iowa stations always have higher dews and I’m thinking they’re not accurate because they often also show 100% relative humidity when that also seems to high. I’ve noticed that the last Vantage Pro2 wx station I got never shows 100% humidity even if it’s foggy or raining for awhile. My other station occasionally hit 100% and had more range. Then  the new one also doesn’t seem to show low enough humidity in the afternoons and maybe that’s why my dew point often seems to high. Either way, some numbers on the maps probably aren’t totally accurate either.

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The official rain fall from this mornings rain event at Grand Rapids was 2.39" Here at my house I had a total of 1.86" It looks like the most rain fell is SE Grand Rapids were there were several reports of over 2" and one even up to 3.42. At this time it is cloudy here and very humid. The current temperature here at my house is 79 with a DP of 77

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5 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

My dewpoint  currently  is 77f!!! Ive compared dewpoints  around se Iowa to rest of usa for years.   Most summer days mine is as high or higher than entire usa, even Florida.   This summer has had few  days with breaks in the humidity.  Unlike the drought areas  just to my north. Does anyone have a detailed  map of dewpoints  around the country? Not just  a couple reporting  stations each state? Ohio st twister had nice one, cant find them now.

I found this one for Nebraska, I’d assume they have maps for every state. I took this screenshot at 2 pm. 

33003ECD-0D1D-4E08-8649-E1C32B25BAD3.png

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May I have some rain, please? ☺️

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I think one would consider that these are the "dog days of summer"...hot and humid conditions prevail on this summery morning 76F/72F with a bit of haze.  I took a step outside on my deck and looked out and what struck me was the reddish tint the moon had.  It was almost an eary looking color.  That's a first.

Well, the heavens have been delivering abundant moisture in the PHX valley.  I'm happy to say that PHX recorded .80" of precip which was a record for the date.  Scottsdale received in the order of 2-3" of rain the other day!  Much BN temps with a high of ONLY 83F and that is good for 23 degrees BN.  Crazy wx for those out there.  More torrential rains are in the forecast today and tomorrow.

Most models have a bullseye of precip right over our place out there...

nam3km_apcpn_swus_18.png

 

 

Meanwhile, I'm looking forward to hopefully score severe storms later this afternoon...

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_16.png

 

 

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While I was flipping through the models this morning, is this a coincidence???  Nature dialing up some blocking???  December preview???  August will open up the doors with some cool and refreshing air for the MW/GL's region.  Check this out and you can't script this any better.  The 500mb pattern being forecast by the GEFS/EPS for Aug 1st is earily similar to the CFSv2 forecast for December....Hmmmm, this is intriguing....just saying, winter on my mind while we are in the midst of a heat wave.  #CoolThoughts

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_35.png

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_9.png

 

I see you Greenland Block...I'll see you Rock in a Bigly way...

1.gif

Lastly, I found this animation off last nights 0z EPS quite interesting as we see the LRC's colder phase showing up and the predictable Vortex to take hold across eastern Canada late month into August.  Not just 1, but 2 rounds of cold 850's coming directly off the N Pole into the eastern CONUS.  There is no doubt in my mind, that this is most def a signal of where we are heading down the road.  Cooler days are heading our way soon.... #WeatherGeekin'    

2.gif

 

 

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Terry Swails has been talking about the upcoming heat and possible break.  Considering the GFS and Euro have both been showing the MJO in phase 6, which is a cold phase for our region, he's been thinking the Euro may be overdoing the heat wave.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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16 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Terry Swails has been talking about the upcoming heat and possible break.  Considering the GFS and Euro have both been showing the MJO in phase 6, which is a cold phase for our region, he's been thinking the Euro may be overdoing the heat wave.

I feel like the GFS and the Euro are both overdoing temps as move into the first of August. The good ole CMC may have the best handle on temps and the pattern in the extended.

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There was a record rain fall at Grand Rapids and Muskegon yesterday. A total of 2.65" of rain fell at GRR yesterday the old record was 1.02" in 1968. Here at my house I reported a total of 2.03" with the bulk falling in some very heavy rain yesterday around 5 AM I will not call that a thunderstorm because there was at most one or maybe two rumbles of thunder.  At Muskegon they reported 1.78" and that is also a new record with the old one being just one inch set in 1912. 

The overnight low here was a warm 74 it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 72. At this time there is some hazy sunshine with a temperature of 78 and a DP of 71. There is some heavy rain and a few thunderstorms in northern Michigan with the thunderstorms mostly in the Traverse City area.

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I know Texas must endure its obligatory hot weather, but what are opinions of whether we’ll see a shorter summer and cool air dip down south? 
 

Looking forward to that first cool breeze!🥰

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

I know Texas must endure its obligatory hot weather, but what are opinions of whether we’ll see a shorter summer and cool air dip down south? 
 

Looking forward to that first cool breeze!🥰

I think the second week of August should turn wet so that should cool things down for ya a little.

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Wednesday in Lincoln:

GFS: 113

Euro: 99

OAX: 101

I think I would lean towards the "cooler" end lol. There would have to be conditions similar to the Dust Bowl to hit 113 and we're currently on the border of D0 drought/no drought. The biggest outlier is 1911, which hit 110, the highest temp outside of the Dust Bowl era. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Today is a scorcher, especially with the high dew points which are the highest of the year! It felt like a sauna while I was outside watering things and mowing some grass. The dew hit the 80°s (83° max. on my station) for the first time! The lawns still are green, but growth suddenly slowed (it was lush and growing like mad) with all this heat and dryness. Had to mow every few days for awhile. Anyway, a weak front should move through soon. 

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Best storm of the season that I’ve experienced with torrential rains, wind, vivid light and very loud thunder.  Over 1” of rain in about 20-30min.  Local reporting station shows 1.27”.  Very pleased.

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3 minutes ago, Tom said:

Best storm of the season that I’ve experienced with torrential rains, wind, vivid light and very loud thunder.  Over 1” of rain in about 20-30min.  Local reporting station shows 1.27”.  Very pleased.

Whew, congrats! That’s what we need right now!

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Just incredible  humidity  here today. The weak front dropping in squeezed out more moisture!  A nice shower went over city of Ottumwa  missing me, but it added  moisture! Incredible  85f  dewpoint  highest since  purchasing  my davis pro 6 years ago. Possibly  high dewpoint  of my life. High temp was 94.

20210724_191448.jpg

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They’re forecasting 100 to 101 over the next week. Hope the grid doesn’t crash.  

A change in the jet stream pattern means the triple-digit heat continues across North Texas into early next week. The high-pressure system responsible for the hot weather will be centered over North Texas 
from Sunday through Tuesday. But by midweek that high will drift back towards New Mexico. Thank heavens. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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