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July 2021 Observations and Discussion


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92 with a max HI of 104 today. Only the 5th time this month we’ve reached 90, but it looks like the last 8 days will have no problem.

Biggest question next week will be dew points. On the days the GFS has us so hot dews are down in the 50s. Most forecasters don’t see them being that low so it keeps our highs cooler with the muggy air.

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The storm from last night produced some rather strong winds to knock down large trees in my city as well as nearby locations, esp just E of ORD.  Overall, the best model that handled this event 2 days out had to be the high rez NAM which never lost the idea of storms blossoming just after 4:00pm local time.  So glad to have been on the receiving end of a strong storm this season...check that off the summer list!

 

 

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The GL's regions next round of severe wx potential is dialing up during the Wed/Thu period as a rather decent CF will usher in a pattern change for us across the eastern Sub.  The 0z Euro is suggesting some intense CAPE values for parts of MN/WI and esp near  @Madtown...somebody is going to finish off the month with a bang from nature.

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Save the best for last?  Some of the models are showing another final severe wx set up for the month next Sat across parts of NE into IA.  Long ways out, but this could just be the beginning of an active period of wx across the main ag belt region of the central CONUS once we flip the calendar into August.  In fact, the 0z EPS is steadily starting to see this wetter pattern during the opening week of August leading to pockets of AN precip anomalies.  This suggests to me we will see numerous storm clusters.  NW Flow aloft and a rather strong jet stream for this time of year I imagine will produce some atmospheric fireworks. 

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The placement of the Heat Dome appears to shift a bit SW from its current position later in Week 2 that'll allow for NM to dry out but increase moisture across the inter-mountain west.

 

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NWS Hastings with a very detailed disco this morning on how models and Mets missed this ongoing thunderstorm activity that wasn’t seen 12-18 hours ago. I appreciate his honesty and apology for not seeing this. 3-5” in places have forced flash flood warnings to be issued for the first time since Mid May. I’m approaching 0.75” as heavy storms continue to develop. Farmers just north and east of me had 2-3” earlier and will only add to that this morning. Can you imagine what the dews will be when the real heat hits mid week?  I’ll sweat standing in place. 

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5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Had a rumble of thunder early this morning but only .12 fell. One of the more miserable weeks of weather I ve had in awhile coming this week. #readyforfall

image.thumb.png.b7d395503fb5da62d1b85d29b01b3e0f.png

Hopefully things back off by late this week into next. NWS Hastings thinks the heat dome may move back west. We’ll see. 

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At least that big High moves off of us.  Let NMx have it. We don’t mind sharing!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Yesterday afternoon there was a heavy but brief rain shower here. That shower dropped 0.32" of rain in about 20 minutes. But once again there was no thunder here in my area. (so for me no thunderstorm)  As of July 24 the mean at Grand Rapids for July is at 72.0 That is a departure of -0.8 from the new 30 year average. There have been only 8 days when the mean was above average 15 days with the mean below average and one day that the mean was average. The warmest so far this month has been 89 and the coolest has been 54. At the airport there has been 4.36" of rain fall.  At this time it is sunny here and 78.

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Its not often you see such high DP's in PHX at this time of year.  It must feel tropical out there and I'm sure things are looking very lush where there is vegetation growing.  In fact, my mother told me there is an abundant amount of wild mushrooms up in the mountains from all the rainfall.  Scottsdale has received a little over 4" of rain the past 3 days alone!  Wild stuff.

 

 

Current conditions at

Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (KPHX)

Lat: 33.427799°NLon: 112.003465°WElev: 1115ft.
nsct.png

Partly Cloudy

75°F

24°C

Humidity 88%
Wind Speed E 4 MPH
Barometer 29.99 in (1015.58 mb)
Dewpoint 72F°(22°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 25 Jul 07:05 AM MST
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Yesterday ended up several degrees cooler than expected due to clouds. Now we’re getting some rain this morning which wasn’t forecasted. Gotta appreciate the little things during summer.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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It's bone dry in my yard.  I've received 0.58" of rain this month, with none in the last eleven days, and the next chance is next weekend.  The "next chance" keeps getting pushed back.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's bone dry in my yard.  I've received 0.58" of rain this month, with none in the last eleven days, and the next chance is next weekend.  The "next chance" keeps getting pushed back.

Similar dryness is what I was dealing with 1 year ago, and especially 2 years ago. I’ve had 2.77” so far this July (nothing spectacular) while my brother around 6 miles to the se. had around 4”.

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101* today.   102* mañana.   
 

Somebody grab the BBQ sauce and turn me over.  I’m done!

9 more days of this.  🥵

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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ORD hit 90F yesterday making it 2 days in a row of 90F+ temps and with today's predicted high of 91F it will officially be the 1st Heat Wave of the season.  The air was much more tolerable on Sunday as DP's were in the upper 50's so it wasn't to bad outside.  The soil is very moist from all the rains that fell.  I'm right on the border of Mt Prospect and they had an official report of 1.67" of precip from the heavy storms on Sat.  Of note, the DP reached its highest levels of the season on Sat at ORD (76F).

Relief from the HEAT???  I'm liking the temp/DP trends for the 2nd half of the week around these parts.  It's going to feel a whole lot better by late Thursday and through the weekend.  Before then, however, the signal for severe wx this Wed/Thu is still looking primed for MN/WI and possibly into parts of MI/N IL.

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0z Euro consistently showing very high CAPE values...I'm sure our CPC outlook will be heightened today or tomorrow.

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On a side note, while PHX usually takes the wrap for CLIMATE CHANGE when they endure Heat, boy, I wonder what they will label this new all-time record???  Surely, the climate does change, it has been for millennia.  I'm thrilled that the state has seen relentless rains this Monsoon season.

https://twitter.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1419504499597606916

 

Here is a map of the last 14 days alone...pretty remarkable wx pattern for these parts and neighboring NM...

2.png

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  • Tom changed the title to July 2021 Observations and Discussion

Models have pushed any rain next weekend southwest of my area, so it is, once again, 9-10 days before the next chance.  This pattern sucks.  We are getting surges of high dew air, and we're getting frontal passages, but the fronts are all capped so we get nothing.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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As I have stated at times in the past I have two temperature sensors that are placed in my yard. One is placed in what I like to call the "cold" spot of the yard and the other in the "warm" spot. The over night low at the cold spot last night was 61.0 and and the warm spot the low was 63.1. Note in my reports I round up or down to the whole number. At this time the current readings are 68.4 (68) at the cold spot and 68.9 (69) at the warm spot. And yes I have switched the sensors and the results are the same the cold spot is colder and the warm spot is warmer most of the time that is less so on cloudy or windy days and nights when the readings are generally the same at both locations. Bottom line is that there can be temperature differences in a very short distance. I go for walks all the time and there is a place on my walks with a big hill to the west and in the low area east of the hill it is very noticeably cooler on clear calm evenings.

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Day 2 of 9 or 10 to come. 

6D2AFFFC-2D14-4EC8-8DCB-2E35A7C4C2B4.png

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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12 hours ago, Tom said:

On a side note, while PHX usually takes the wrap for CLIMATE CHANGE when they endure Heat, boy, I wonder what they will label this new all-time record???  Surely, the climate does change, it has been for millennia.  I'm thrilled that the state has seen relentless rains this Monsoon season.

https://twitter.com/NWSPhoenix/status/1419504499597606916

 

Here is a map of the last 14 days alone...pretty remarkable wx pattern for these parts and neighboring NM...

2.png

Yep, more extreme events are definitely part of the climate change. Pacific NW and Canada had a 1 in a 1000 year probability heat event, China just had a 1 in a 1000 year flood event. Some places had the same amount of rain in a few days as they get in an entire year.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/preliminary-analysis-concludes-pacific-northwest-heat-wave-was-1000-year

https://www.npr.org/2021/07/25/1020342822/flooding-continues-to-devastate-zhengzhou-city-in-central-china

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Hit 91.4 here today, but the dew mixed out to the low 60s this afternoon so not too bad. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow through Thursday as the dews are supposed to be much higher and thus keep our highs around 100.

Part of me wants to see a run at 110 plus with low humidity of course

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Probably the biggest bust of a severe thunderstorm watch I have ever seen. Not even a single blip on radar.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Antarctica on the whole having likely the coldest winter ever recorded. Here's Amundsen Scott South Pole obs for July thus far--- June was record cold. July is not far behind. Where is this on the the weather channel? Doesn't fit their agenda?? They could report it and blame on "climate change" - but smart people are seeing that is a bunch of bs when the coldest spot on earth is getting colder in winter.  The "Climate Change" bs being AGW is being exposed -- climate is always changing and its got VERY little to do with humans and a trace gas. This record cold is not being reported on,, why???  You can bet if the deviations from avg were on the "+"  side of things as much as they are "-", the warming channel would be all over it.  btw- I have heard some reports of the coldest temp ever recorded may have occurred at Vostok "area" by satellite in the area of -130 to -140F in the cold wave in late June early July. This is satellite measured. Vostok data is hard to find as I think the station went under in the cold war but clear indications are that the S Pole is getting colder. In the Winter. Which is big when you factor in wet bulbs and  saturation mixing ratios .This shouldn't be happening if the whole earth is getting warmer is basically my jest. image.thumb.png.aaa3a5558c38eec0cd1fbf89b3cfa6ca.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ft Worth starting its day at 83*
It can’t get better from here.  Everyone’s praying the power doesn’t fail.  Heat index will hit 105*+

Yet I’ve read the poles have each experienced their coldest winters.  This can’t bode well for our next winter.  Texas is holding its breath in fear the grid will fail again.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We can finally say that Chicago has fulfilled their 1st Heat Wave of the season.  ORD hit 94F yesterday making it the hottest temp of the season while some outer suburbs made it up to the upper 90's which is a bit surprising.  The low DP's certainly helped temps rise quickly but I wonder how much higher would temps have peaked if it weren't for the Hazy skies??  Something to consider.

In the meantime, DP's rise today and tomorrow as the sultry airmass will provide the fuel to possibly fire up more storms around here late tomorrow.  It would be nice to see some more boomers but this would come in the overnight hours likely waking me up after midnight.  Let's see how this develops.

 

0z NAM 3km...

 nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_54.png

 

06z GFS...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_8.png

 

06z ICON...

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_17.png

 

0z RGEM...

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_56.png

 

 

The data coming in is raising eyebrows....boy, this could be one hellova storm cluster...

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22 hours ago, westMJim said:

As I have stated at times in the past I have two temperature sensors that are placed in my yard. One is placed in what I like to call the "cold" spot of the yard and the other in the "warm" spot. The over night low at the cold spot last night was 61.0 and and the warm spot the low was 63.1. Note in my reports I round up or down to the whole number. At this time the current readings are 68.4 (68) at the cold spot and 68.9 (69) at the warm spot. And yes I have switched the sensors and the results are the same the cold spot is colder and the warm spot is warmer most of the time that is less so on cloudy or windy days and nights when the readings are generally the same at both locations. Bottom line is that there can be temperature differences in a very short distance. I go for walks all the time and there is a place on my walks with a big hill to the west and in the low area east of the hill it is very noticeably cooler on clear calm evenings.

When I’m biking out here in the country on calm evenings or nights there’s a big difference in temps between tops and bottoms of the rolling hills by at least 5° or more. Was glad I had a light sweater when I was on the way home from a family reunion near midnight last night! Felt almost chilly in the dips! The reunion continues today with maybe 150+ people here. It will be to hot today.

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Cedar Rapids' high/low temp last Saturday was 92/70.  That is the only 90º high and the only 70º low this entire month.

Today and Wednesday should add a couple more 90s.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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From last nights storm.  Produced some widespread large hail.... I can't find it now but saw a video near Red Lake of sideways hail storm pummeling a building, anything short of steel roofs and siding was probably getting shredded.  

Image

Somehow I ended up with nothing more than a couple distant rumbles of thunder and a few raindrops as the storms parted over Lake of the Woods.  

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10 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Antarctica on the whole having likely the coldest winter ever recorded. Here's Amundsen Scott South Pole obs for July thus far--- June was record cold. July is not far behind. Where is this on the the weather channel? Doesn't fit their agenda?? They could report it and blame on "climate change" - but smart people are seeing that is a bunch of bs when the coldest spot on earth is getting colder in winter.  The "Climate Change" bs being AGW is being exposed -- climate is always changing and its got VERY little to do with humans and a trace gas. This record cold is not being reported on,, why???  You can bet if the deviations from avg were on the "+"  side of things as much as they are "-", the warming channel would be all over it.  btw- I have heard some reports of the coldest temp ever recorded may have occurred at Vostok "area" by satellite in the area of -130 to -140F in the cold wave in late June early July. This is satellite measured. Vostok data is hard to find as I think the station went under in the cold war but clear indications are that the S Pole is getting colder. In the Winter. Which is big when you factor in wet bulbs and  saturation mixing ratios .This shouldn't be happening if the whole earth is getting warmer is basically my jest. image.thumb.png.aaa3a5558c38eec0cd1fbf89b3cfa6ca.png

And the Arctic is warming 3x faster than the rest of the planet. And the planet as a whole is warming. And there weren't 7+ BILLION people on this rock before. And what is the "agenda" again?

 

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Been a while since I have posted on here, hope everyone has been doing good and enjoying the summer! Personally I can't wait until it is over with. I am soooo done with this heat. Especially when you work outside for a living. But on the positive side, I'm so used to it now that at least 90 degrees doesn't feel too bad unless the dew points are ridiculous like we will be experiencing today and tomorrow. Going to go work outside for a couple more hours and then I will become a hermit :P I was kind of bummed yesterday as we were supposed to get some good storms but they never came past Hinckley towards the cities. To be honest, as much as a storm would be nice, an all day light rain would be even better. Give it a chance to actually get into the ground and benefit us a bit. Hopefully we get rain soon as we need it just as bad as those to the west. As far as winter goes, pretty sure it's going to be a doozy. We always had a rule of thumb to live by when we plowed. If it was a rainy summer, it will be a dry winter. If it was a dry summer, it will be a snowy winter. I'm quite excited to see what this coming season brings!

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And now for something completely different,…

102* Feels like 108*.  
Scattered Showers.  (**cough** Sauna) 

 

AEE487E4-B2B2-43CE-BC49-807AA4E86DF1.jpeg

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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