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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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BC smoke headed for WA tomorrow afternoon and CA smoke headed for Montana. Ughhh, I'm already so over this summer. Fast forward to Fall please!

 

1639295965_ScreenShot2021-07-01at8_44_49AM.thumb.png.c27e08e94e0c43955cebf2d69dd46e76.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

BC smoke headed for WA tomorrow afternoon and CA smoke headed for Montana. Ughhh, I'm already so over this summer. Fast forward to Fall please!

 

1639295965_ScreenShot2021-07-01at8_44_49AM.thumb.png.c27e08e94e0c43955cebf2d69dd46e76.png

Oh f*ck me. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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51 minutes ago, Kayla said:

BC smoke headed for WA tomorrow afternoon and CA smoke headed for Montana. Ughhh, I'm already so over this summer. Fast forward to Fall please!

 

1639295965_ScreenShot2021-07-01at8_44_49AM.thumb.png.c27e08e94e0c43955cebf2d69dd46e76.png

Good news it that major smoke plume from yesterday has been effectively lifted out in the southerly flow on the back side of the high pressure system and is being sent eastwards with the jet stream.

 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-ca_reg_west-02-15_20Z-20210701_map_-15-1n-10-100.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Snowdrift said:

And don't forget me

I’m sure the smoke won’t forget any of us. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Good news it that major smoke plume from yesterday has been effectively lifted out in the southerly flow on the back side of the high pressure system and is being quickly sent eastwards with the jet stream.

 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-regional-ca_reg_west-02-15_20Z-20210701_map_-15-1n-10-100.gif

It’s someone else’s problem for now lol but that won’t last. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s someone else’s problem for now lol but that won’t last. 

Definitely won't last... but at least the vast majority of the smoke from that massive blow up yesterday has been quickly pushed away in the opposite direction of us.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely won't last... but at least the vast majority of the smoke from that massive blow up yesterday has been quickly pushed away in the opposite direction of us.

Until the next fire starts and the wind shifts. Can already feel it may be a bad one this summer. 

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And the pattern being shown next week will also be effective at keeping the BC smoke away from us... should be moving to the NE.

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5745600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The 12Z GFS actually shows thunderstorms and rain over the BC fire areas today...

 

gfs-deterministic-can-precip_12hr_inch-5198400.png

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Haven’t really looked at the temp maps yet just basing this off of the phone app but SEA has a good shot at being at or below average today. 2 straight days of this would be so nice!

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2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Haven’t really looked at the temp maps yet just basing this off of the phone app but SEA has a good shot at being at or below average today. 2 straight days of this would be so nice!

Yeah... the marine layer will be around most of the day so it will end up fairly cool.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12Z GFS says forget a GOA ridge... lets do the complete opposite! 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5799600.png

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12Z GFS now showing a 600DM 4CH by the end of next week as well... which essentially acts to deflect any troughing coming down from the north.     I would kill for some rain... but don't understand why Phil keeps denying the reality of the situation.   All of the models are showing it now... including the ensembles.  

 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5961600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

OT, but just got my driver’s license!

Storm chasing and cold chasing adventures await!

Drive safely!   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Today is day 16 without rainfall…likely another 10 coming atleast. Pretty much a lock for our longest dry streak since summer 2018…when we went 33 days without rain. I’m guessing this’ll be our longest dry streak since we went 90 days without rain in 2017 once it’s over…hopefully it doesn’t break that streak too…

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Today is day 16 without rainfall…likely another 10 coming atleast. Pretty much a lock for our longest dry streak since summer 2018…when we went 33 days without rain. I’m guessing this’ll be our longest dry streak since we went 90 days without rain in 2017 once it’s over…hopefully it doesn’t break that streak too…

90 days without rain. Seriously?

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Just now, ShawniganLake said:

90 days without rain. Seriously?

Yeah it happened here in the summer of 2017 and late summer 2012 we went without for 70 days. 

Monthly rainfall-2.71”

Cold season rainfall-2.71”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

90 days without rain. Seriously?

We almost did that even out here in 2017.   There was only .15 in 90 days from mid June through mid September that year and only 2 days with measurable rain.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

12z is really threading the needle to avoid blasting the west side with a torch. 

I am just waiting for Phil's mega trough!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It is raining. Month ruined, we may pick up 0.01". 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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18 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

90 days without rain. Seriously?

The previous streak prior to this was 51 days and crushed it in 2017 from June 18- August 11. It ended at 55 days when only a measly 0.02” fell at Sea-Tac….. but even a trace would’ve still counted. I believe after that, we went on another streak. 

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Best case scenario: slightly above normal July. 

Worst case: July 2018 redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Maybe there's still time for it to change the second week of July trough is DOA with the 4CH at or nearing 600dm and completely punting it away. Come on Phil, work your magic. Save us!

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Water off the PNW coast is now quite warm... can't imagine the upcoming pattern will do much to change that.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (4).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dear Tim,

Do you ever think you may be the wrong person to be the messenger? 

Sincerely,

A concerned citizen of the global community.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the PNW coast is now quite warm... can't imagine the upcoming pattern will do much to change that.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (4).png

This has to be a culmination of years and years of the blob being there. Now it's on steroids, it went away but it always seem to come back stronger and stronger. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dear Tim,

Do you ever think you may be the wrong person to be the messenger? 

Sincerely,

A concerned citizen of the global community.

We just take it as it comes... if the models were showing a big rain event then I would be posting the hell out of precip maps and honestly pretty excited right now.    I am becoming increasingly concerned for this area later in the summer if we get an east wind event.   

Also sort of frustrated with Phil... he has been wrong about this summer so far and I can see he is making a mistake by doubling down on his assertions about the first half of July.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

It's not very good at taking into account our marine layer influence imo. The marine layer is quite thick today. 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

Seemed to nail the **** out of the heatwave. That 117 for SLE wasn't so abysmal was it. STOP CHERRY PICKING.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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It appears only the admins can pin a thread now.  Totally lame!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

It's not very good at taking into account our marine layer influence imo. The marine layer is quite thick today. 

It is terrible with inversions... and we have a significant inversion on the back side of that monster ridge.   But it would be foolhardy to assume it will always be so wrong.   The inversion is going to go away and the GFS has actually been closer to reality with high temps overall compared to the ECMWF.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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