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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Dear Tim,

Do you ever think you may be the wrong person to be the messenger? 

Sincerely,

A concerned citizen of the global community.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Water off the PNW coast is now quite warm... can't imagine the upcoming pattern will do much to change that.

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1 (4).png

This has to be a culmination of years and years of the blob being there. Now it's on steroids, it went away but it always seem to come back stronger and stronger. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Dear Tim,

Do you ever think you may be the wrong person to be the messenger? 

Sincerely,

A concerned citizen of the global community.

We just take it as it comes... if the models were showing a big rain event then I would be posting the hell out of precip maps and honestly pretty excited right now.    I am becoming increasingly concerned for this area later in the summer if we get an east wind event.   

Also sort of frustrated with Phil... he has been wrong about this summer so far and I can see he is making a mistake by doubling down on his assertions about the first half of July.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

It's not very good at taking into account our marine layer influence imo. The marine layer is quite thick today. 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

OMG the GFS surface temps predictions for SEA continue to get even more absurd.  How on Earth does it come up with 82 for today?  Since I've started keeping track it has been 10 degrees too high on max temps on average.  Just abysmal.

Seemed to nail the **** out of the heatwave. That 117 for SLE wasn't so abysmal was it. STOP CHERRY PICKING.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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It appears only the admins can pin a thread now.  Totally lame!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

It's not very good at taking into account our marine layer influence imo. The marine layer is quite thick today. 

It is terrible with inversions... and we have a significant inversion on the back side of that monster ridge.   But it would be foolhardy to assume it will always be so wrong.   The inversion is going to go away and the GFS has actually been closer to reality with high temps overall compared to the ECMWF.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

64F here for a low.  Probably one of the warmest marine layer mornings I can ever remember 

I was thinking the same thing when i went down for my walk at 5 am. I was going to bring a hoody jacket but once I stepped outside quickly abandoned that idea.  Warm and even a little humid feeling.  Twas nice 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Seemed to nail the **** out of the heatwave. That 117 for SLE wasn't so abysmal was it. STOP CHERRY PICKING.

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

I was thinking the same thing when i went down for my walk at 5 am. I was going to bring a hoody jacket but once I stepped outside quickly abandoned that idea.  Warm and even a little humid feeling.  Twas nice 

It's definitely humid for sure. But an occasional slight breeze does feel nice. 

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Seeing patches of blue sky already... I was sort of expecting fog and drizzle this morning.    Its not that thick.    But I suspect its deep enough to keep clouds around most of the day with sun breaks at times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Its a strong inversion thing... it happens.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Reminds me of last February when it ran ridiculously warm as well.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Seeing patches of blue sky already... I was sort of expecting fog and drizzle this morning.    Its not that thick.    But I suspect its deep enough to keep clouds around most of the day with sun breaks at times.

We had an occasional patches of blue skies here as well but it got covered again quickly. It looks like it actually might puke some water, so I don't think the break will happen as fast as it seems because I thought the same thing yesterday but it stuck around for quite a while. 

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13 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

This has to be a culmination of years and years of the blob being there. Now it's on steroids, it went away but it always seem to come back stronger and stronger. 

That's actually close to being a -PDO with the warmth over the GOA.  Once the big surface high sets up over the NE Pacific it will cause upwelling along the coast and colder SSTs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Just like a wave coming in leaving us under sea foam along the beach 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+12

8A09AE26-8F59-41B9-9A43-9987660D96E7.jpeg

That is one serious marine layer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is one serious marine layer.

It's not that solid though... the sun has broken through here a couple times already.    

COD-GOES-West-subregional-Pac_NW.02.20210701.175117-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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70F under the pleasant marine layer.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Wonder what Mr. Marine Layer has to say about this marine layer. Probably the handiwork of the Libs!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF is a little more impressive with a ULL by the middle of next week... even some rain up near the border.     That day ends up being pretty much sunny for most of the area though.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5680800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Worst Canada Day ever for Lytton. Just horrific and most likely a preview of what's to come down here. Hope y'all have your gas masks!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is a little more impressive with a ULL by the middle of next week... even some rain up near the border.     That day ends up being pretty much sunny for most of the area though.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5680800.png

Just keeps parching the dry and cracked ground even more down here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I say for SEA it's been 10 degrees too high on average over the past several days.  Maybe it's just a more SEA centric thing, but it's awful here.

Some east side cities can have +10 anomalies on avg high. June 2021 had +10.3 for the month and +10.6 in 2015.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Worst Canada Day ever for Lytton. Just horrific and most likely a preview of what's to come down here. Hope y'all have your gas masks!

 

c4fk8bwt2q9e.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Worst Canada Day ever for Lytton. Just horrific and most likely a preview of what's to come down here. Hope y'all have your gas masks!

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

It's only just under 8,000,000 seconds from now. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We have about 60-90 days of this to get through, and then we will be able to take a deep breath provided we make it through. Counting down the days until the first fall rains and just hoping time goes by as quickly as possible. 

I am not really worried about rapid fire spread on the west side unless we get an east wind event like we did last September.   Then all bets are off.  So my anxiety is more about the timing of meaningful rain in August ahead of the time of the year when east wind events start happening.     We usually get decent rain in August here... but if that does not happen then we could be in real trouble this year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am not really worried about rapid fire spread on the west side unless we get an east wind event like we did last September.   Then all bets are off.  So my anxiety is more about the timing of meaningful rain in August ahead of the time of the year when east wind events start happening.     We usually get decent rain in August here... but if that does not happen then we could be in real trouble this year.

The last time we had decent rain in August down this way was maybe 2010. Seems like I recall a major soaking rain event in August 2004, at least on the east side of the Oregon Cascades where I was camping. Bad timing on that one. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Last time SLE had over 1" of rain in August was 2008. Last time SLE had over 2" of rain in August was 1983. In 130 years of record keeping they have only recorded more than 3" of rain in August once, 1968 when 4.17" fell. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

Yeah... 2017, 2018, and 2020 all featured a very dry July up here.   2019 was decently wet though.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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