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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time Salem had over 1" of rain in July was 1993. In fact 3 of the past 4 July's at SLE have featured 0.00" of rain. The last time SLE had over 1/2" of rain in July was 2011.

I think 1993 was the year I remember them shooting off the Fourth of July fireworks at Lake Union in Seattle in between bouts of drizzle and rain. It was so chilly that day that when I got home from the fireworks, I built a fire in my wood stove to take the edge off.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

Lovely...

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... 2017, 2018, and 2020 all featured a very dry July up here.   2019 was decently wet though.  

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

65°F and overcast at high noon. Not much temperature range here; last night’s low was 63 after a high of 70 yesterday.

NWS forecast forecast for my area now has no 80+ temps in it for the next week. Winning!

Opposite down here... all 80s after tomorrow.   Although I suspect Wednesday will be cooler and later in the week might reach the low 90s.

Screenshot_20210701-120704_Google.jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

You can see it in the forests. Western Red Cedar is strictly a riparian/wetland tree in the Oregon Cascades. In Washington, you can see them growing away from watercourses. Unfortunately, many of the latter cedars are now sick or dying due to our new, hotter, drier summers.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Lovely...

Pretty clear we are going to be right on the dividing line of the heat and more normal temps, I suspect we will have multiple heatwaves this month as the 4CH builds and then bouts of average-ish weather as it retracts and troughs move by to the north. I think relatively sustained heat/warmth is a good bet. Best case scenario is it is a little suppressed, and we have a decent amount of marine influence. A more likely scenario is sustained warmth like July 2018 or 2014. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Clouds thickening again here with some daytime warming... the marine layer is sort of bubbly today.    Does not look like its going anywhere though.   Its not retreating from any direction.    Its reach the Cascade crest and its entrenched west of there.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty clear we are going to be right on the dividing line of the heat and more normal temps, I suspect we will have multiple heatwaves this month as the 4CH builds and then bouts of average-ish weather as it retracts and troughs move by to the north. I think relatively sustained heat/warmth is a good bet. Best case scenario is it is a little suppressed, and we have a decent amount of marine influence. A more likely scenario is sustained warmth like July 2018 or 2014. 

I think a boring month is on tap, compared to what was a very dynamic June overall.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Clouds thickening again here with some daytime warming... the marine layer is sort of bubbly today.    Does not look like its going anywhere though.   Its not retreating from any direction.    Its reach the Cascade crest and its entrenched west of there.  

It’s breaking up here, but based on yesterday, may well re-form.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

I’ll take it!

image.gif.3bf833fa0760d0913bf242d8e2315ac9.gif

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22 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A wet July just is not a thing here. Salem has had 3 July's with over 2" of rain in 130 years, interestingly two of them came in the 80s, the other was 1916, which is the wettest July on record with 2.72". 

It's happened once or twice down here. There wasn't one dry thunderstorm in 2015 and had a few that washed out parking lots.

There was a cocorahs station with 1.5" that month.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It is terrible with inversions... and we have a significant inversion on the back side of that monster ridge.   But it would be foolhardy to assume it will always be so wrong.   The inversion is going to go away and the GFS has actually been closer to reality with high temps overall compared to the ECMWF.

Not so sure about that. I think it depends on the location and time frame. 

The Euro did quite well for some locations with the heatwave, and has done better than the GFS overall since.

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46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The last time we had decent rain in August down this way was maybe 2010. Seems like I recall a major soaking rain event in August 2004, at least on the east side of the Oregon Cascades where I was camping. Bad timing on that one. 

"Decent" is subjective, of course, but SLE did have above average rainfall in 2015. And basically average in 2016.

Granted, average is pretty meager in August.

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37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF builds the 4CH after that ULL... and it shows temps around 100 in Portland for a couple days later in the week before slightly denting the ridge at the very end of the run.  

Models are clearly struggling with the pattern evolution with that offshore ULL past day 5. Can't really put much stock in anything, but what the Euro shows looks like the start of a retrogression.

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Obviously that dumb little cutoff low off the coast is going to play a huge role in whether we can get a cool trough in here next week.  Could easily go either way.

Certainly enjoying the cool weather right now!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I would set the +/- mean temp for July at SLE at 72.0 which would be #4 warmest all time behind 2014,15,18. Personally I think one would have to be a fool to take the under. 

SLE is a hotbox, but I'd still take the under.

For OLM, I'd take the under on top 10.

A forum for the end of the world.

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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Temps are running about the same as yesterday at this time. It's actually been a blessing to have a couple days like this after the heatwave tbh. 

I don't think anyone would disagree.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

SLE is a hotbox, but I'd still take the under.

For OLM, I'd take the under on top 10.

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Models are clearly struggling with the pattern evolution with that offshore ULL past day 5. Can't really put much stock in anything, but what the Euro shows looks like the start of a retrogression.

All the models are in basic agreement through next week.    That is pretty meaningful.  

Here is the 12Z EPS at day 10... same pattern. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5983200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

But its a moving target if it does not have the 500mb pattern correct.    

Side note... the 12Z ECMWF gets pretty warm too.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models are in basic agreement through next week.    That is pretty meaningful.  

Here is the 12Z EPS at day 10... same pattern. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5983200.png


That ridge barely lasts 2 days. Then it’s back to troughing, if anything.

6938DB27-0DC3-4975-AE5A-4D8B0204253C.gif

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:


That ridge barely lasts a day, then it’s back to troughing.

6938DB27-0DC3-4975-AE5A-4D8B0204253C.gif

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   😄

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1625140800-1625140800-1626436800-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure why anyone is talking about this being one of the warmest Julys on record yet anyway.  Nothing to suggest it except the nutso GFS surface projections.  After I have 10 days of comparing it to the actual temps I'll post the results and people will see just horrible it is.

Because 4 of our 6 warmest July's have come since 2013, and the next week after today is looking pretty toasty. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Because 4 of our 6 warmest July's have come since 2013, and the next week after today is looking pretty toasty. 

Is July 1954 still on the table?    Asking for a friend.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks like EUG broke their June 2015 monthly record by a whopping 0.01 degrees. Clutch!

Another warmer and drier than normal month for Springfield (not the airport) as we recorded just 1.20" of rain for June. I really wish there was a proper station here in downtown Springfield for the local mets to use as reference for the differences between this microclimate here and the airport, which is more exposed to winds from all directions.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   😄

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting an cold troughs right now.   

 

Should be lined up for some cold weather in October... TWL may be a prophet. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   😄

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1625140800-1625140800-1626436800-10.gif

Hard to believe that after all these years, you still don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean. :lol: 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   😄

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1625140800-1625140800-1626436800-10.gif

An east wind event is going to be a city destroyer by late August.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

But Phil... that warm period was previously shown as a troughy period.     Chasing a carrot buddy.   😄

12Z EPS is still pretty much wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps.    I would not be predicting any cold troughs right now.   

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1625140800-1625140800-1626436800-10.gif

You mean to tell me we're gonna be chasing the carrot on a stick all the way into Sept. or Oct.?

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Should be lined up for some cold weather in October... TWL may be a prophet. 

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that (we've had 4 over the past 2 years in Springfield). Just the new normal.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hard to believe that after all these years, you still don’t know how to use an ensemble mean. :lol: 

Hard to believe you can't.    You keep telling us that warm 850mb temps really means cold 850mb temps because of spread... and yet it usually ends up being warm 850mb temps.    I don't know what to tell you.   You are obviously going to keep moving out your prediction for cold troughing every week until eventually the EPS actually shows colder than normal 850mb temps and then you will be right!  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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