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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that. Just the new normal.

That is really unfortunate if you can't even get the coldest temps to come by in the heart of winter around Dec./Jan. 

Moving may not be such a bad idea.

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2 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

You mean to tell me we're gonna be chasing the carrot on a stick all the way into Sept. or Oct.?

These last 2 days were supposedly “carrots” as well.

At least we didn’t have to chase them!

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

These last 2 days were supposedly “carrots” as well.

At least we didn’t have to chase them!

Yeah... a strong inversion on the back side of a monster ridge.    That is something you can count on happening.

Side note... SEA was still +3 for the day yesterday.   And SEA is guaranteed to be warmer than normal today as well.   So it is not cold.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

That is really unfortunate if you can't even get the coldest temps to come by in the heart of winter around Dec./Jan. 

Moving may not be such a bad idea.

Yup, the far south valley is rapidly becoming worse and worse in a given winter. The median is a pathetic goose-egg of drawing one out of a hat in terms of Arctic cold and snow (The 2010's helped a bit). I wish I could move the family so bad. But the rest of them don't like cold and snow so I'm the oddball but I'm forever grateful to them for saving me from the nightmare of a family situation I had before.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hard to believe you can't.    You keep telling us that warm 850mb temps really means cold 850mb temps because of spread... and yet it usually ends up being warm 850mb temps.    I don't know what to tell you.   You are obviously going to keep moving out your prediction for cold troughing every week until eventually the EPS actually shows colder than normal 850mb temps and then you will be right!  😀

In other words, you don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean, or understand English?

I’m not changing expectations. Why should I?

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... a strong inversion on the back side of a monster ridge.    That is something you can count on happening.   

Side note... SEA was still +3 for the day yesterday.   So it is still not cold.   

Thanks to a warmer than normal overnight low? It was normal for the high, so I can't really complain about +3F departure when the low was 60F. 

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4 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Exactly!!! These past two days were forecast to be quite warm and it turned out perfect.

#Foreverwarm ended before it even started. Haha.

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Just now, Phil said:

In other words, you don’t know how to properly use an ensemble mean, or understand English?

I’m not changing expectations. Why should I?

I know how to use an ensemble mean to project what what the weather will be like here.   I know when the EPS is wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps for 2 weeks then it will be generally warmer than normal.   And vice versa.    

You have not had any good predictions yet this summer.    It has been completely opposite of what you said.   And now you are once again saying that the EPS mean showing warmer than normal 850 temps is not really what it shows and it will be colder than normal.   Good luck with that.   You said the same thing 2 and 3 weeks ago and its been warmer than normal ever since.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I predict a coolish October and a cold February/March in the next 12 months. Warmth otherwise.

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I know how to use an ensemble mean to project what what the weather will be like here.   I know when the EPS is wall-to-wall warmer than normal 850mb temps for 2 weeks then it will be generally warmer than normal.   And vice versa.    

You have not had any good predictions yet this summer.    It has been completely opposite of what you said.   And now you are once again saying that the EPS mean showing warmer than normal 850 temps is not really what it shows and it will be colder than normal.   Good luck with that.   You said the same thing 2 and 3 weeks ago and its been warmer than normal ever since.  

Thanks for proving my point. :lol: If you knew how to properly interpret an ensemble mean, you wouldn’t have said that.

And I actually didn’t bust at all until mid/late June.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Couple of interesting facts

DDD5C992-A0D5-42BF-A170-212A0A9EDA75.jpeg

So basically a coin flip. We don’t really know how this summer will play out. If I had to guess and base it off how things been trending, this summer will end up warmer. For both July and August.

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Couple of interesting facts

DDD5C992-A0D5-42BF-A170-212A0A9EDA75.jpeg

Wait…so you’re telling me a hot June doesn’t equate to a hot July/August? 😱

What happened to #foreverwarm? Thought it was supposed to be lock because…super niño 2015 did it. Right?

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Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

So basically a coin flip. We don’t really know how this summer will play out. If I had to guess and base it off how things been trending, this summer will end up warmer. For both July and August.

I’m guessing +1 or +2 for either month at this point. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I'm pretty used to our coldest temps being in Oct and early Nov now, with very few days below 40F for a high after that (we've had 4 over the past 2 years in Springfield). Just the new normal.

Come to think of it, many of my cold temperature anomalies were in Nov or Oct. I had two Novembers in a row (2018/2019) feature pretty good cold snaps. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Oct 2019 was decently cold at my place, I forget how that one ranked west of the mountains though.

-3.3 departures from normal Mean is pretty rare now for any time of the year.

3rd coldest on record at PDX. Last significantly below average month to date for our region.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thanks for proving my point. :lol: If you knew how to properly interpret an ensemble mean, you wouldn’t have said that.

And I actually didn’t bust at all until mid/late June.

Well... in late May you said it was going to be very warm until the middle of June and then turn colder.   You warned Jesse to prepare himself because the first half of June was going to be "fugly" but it would get better in the second half of the month.    The opposite happened.   The first half of June was cool and very wet... and the second half was about as "fugly" as it gets in terms of hot and dry.  

I predict at least 12 of the next 15 days will be warmer than normal in Seattle covering the first half of July.    And today is #1 because even if the temp held steady the rest of the day... its already +1 in Seattle.    What is your prediction?   Lets score it on 7/15!  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It's kind of annoying when a guy 2500 miles away keeps telling us for weeks about this phantom troughing coming up that hasn't materialized and isn't going to in the near future. We're the ones who actually have to live here and deal with this crappy heat, drought and wildfires.

It's also amazing how out of whack people's idea of "cool" is after the heatwave, yesterday wasn't enough to drop any I5 corridor station down to normal. Even with the new normals the averages at PDX and SEA for July 1st are 78/56 and 74/55 respectively.

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

It was also two months in a row I had end cold (Sep -2.0, Oct -3.3). I was banking on a cool November but that's hard to do sometimes. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, James Jones said:

It's kind of annoying when a guy 2500 miles away keeps telling us for weeks about this phantom troughing coming up that hasn't materialized and isn't going to in the near future. We're the ones who actually have to live here and deal with this crappy heat, drought and wildfires.

It's also amazing how out of whack people's idea of "cool" is after the heatwave, yesterday wasn't enough to drop any I5 corridor station down to normal. Even with the new normals the averages at PDX and SEA for July 1st are 78/56 and 74/55 respectively.

This... times 100.   Exactly how I feel right now.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Timmy_Supercell said:

It was also two months in a row I had end cold (Sep -2.0, Oct -3.3). I was banking on a cool November but that's hard to do sometimes. 

2019 was a dry and cold fall…November was normal but September and October were below normal. Was a very memorable fall because of the vibrant tree colors…some record cold low temps and many amazing sunrises/sunsets here. Not to mention some great thunderstorms in September and October. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... in late May you said it was going to be very warm until the middle of June and then turn colder.   You warned Jesse to prepare himself because the first half of June was going to be "fugly" but it would get better in the second half of the month.    The opposite happened.   The first half of June was cool and very wet... and the second half was about as "fugly" as it gets in terms of hot and dry.  

I predict at least 12 of the next 15 days will be warmer than normal in Seattle covering the first half of July.    And today is #1 because even if the temp held steady the rest of the day... its already +1 in Seattle.    What is your prediction?   Lets score it on 7/15!  

I actually predicted a warm spell in early June followed by mid-month troughing, but thanks for playing.

You want to challenge me to a forecast contest? Alright, lets extend it through September and I’ll do it.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wait…so you’re telling me a hot June doesn’t equate to a hot July/August? 😱

What happened to #foreverwarm? Thought it was supposed to be lock because…super niño 2015 did it. Right?

Spokane will have a warmer than average July.😉

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The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I actually predicted a warm spell in early June followed by mid-month troughing, but thanks for playing.

You want to challenge me to a forecast contest? Alright, lets extend it through September and I’ll do it.

No... I am not making any predictions about the second half of July or August or September.   It could be cool and wet... I have no idea.   We will probably be due for that by August.   I can only see what is coming the next 15 days.    And you have been telling me for 3 weeks that warm ensemble means actually indicate its going to be cold and yet its been warmer than normal every day since mid June with no end in sight.  

So... lets make a prediction about the next 15 days.   And see who can read an ensemble mean better.  😄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

For the record... I am not saying scorching heat.   I don't see that right now.   I just think its going to be warmer than normal.    Like this weekend which will also be under a weak trough.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

The EPS has us in a weak trough at least 3/4 of the time over the next half month.  I think people are getting carried away with this scorching July thing.

I don’t think it will be scorching but will be warmer than normal. June was extremely dynamic and I highly doubt we’ll see a repeat of that 

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14 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It was one of the coldest on record west of the cascades. Had several freezing low temperatures even here near the sound. 

But I thought it never got cold here anymore!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Differences before then, though.

Very little difference.   The ECMWF is most bullish on the ULL mid week and it still shows mid 70s and sun on that day.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... I am not making any predictions about the second half of July or August or September.   It could be cool and wet... I have no idea.   We will probably be due for that by August.   I can only see what is coming the next 15 days.    And you have been telling me for 3 weeks that warm ensemble means actually indicate its going to be cold and yet its been warmer than normal every day since mid June with no end in sight.  

So... lets make a prediction about the next 15 days.   And see who can read an ensemble mean better.  😄

Even if I had said that (I didn’t), 3 weeks ago was early June, which was cool/troughy.

Doesn’t exactly fit your manufactured narrative.

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