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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Maybe because we have trees… many many trees? 

Sometimes they like brush. July 2018 towards Link River Trail. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plus a warming climate and over a century of forest mismanagement.

Plus shortages of rakes. 

#FlashSarcasm

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and that little ULL does not seem to matter in the big picture.   We are watching the period after that when the 4CH seems intent on expanding and shifting west.   

If what's shown on the 18z and the Euro is the extent of the 4CH inevitable flex and our warmup, I think we should consider ourselves lucky. The lack of any prospective rainfall is the bigger problem and it's too bad the flow won't back to the S or SE to draw up some monsoon moisture. Maybe later this month or August.

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22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... and that little ULL does not seem to matter in the big picture.   We are watching the period after that when the 4CH seems intent on expanding and shifting west.   

The almighty EPS looks warm but not really hot at day 10. Could end up hot, could end up near normal.

There is not a huge Aleutian low signal like there was leading up to the big heatwave.

A forum for the end of the world.

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4 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Maybe it’s not such a bad idea to start raking the forest floors like how The Don wants it. 🤣

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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9 t'storm days in July 2015. That's my personal record for the month. 8 in July 2014.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

Yes. This is something that needed and should've been done. It’s not uncommon to start fires to prevent wildfires.

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Super PV?

About to see a freezeless winter.

I feel like we are due for a wet October/November. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I feel like we are due for a wet October/November. 

Battle Ground hasn't seen a 10"+ November since 2006. This after seeing them in 1998, 1996, 1995, 1991, 1988, 1984, 1983, 1973, 1962, 1960, 1958, 1955, 1950, 1945, and 1942. Definitely are due here.

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

73/62 today. Had very little sunshine again today. Humid but comfortable.

74/64 for me at home. The nights remains quite warm. Good thing the marine layer is keeping the heat in check but it’s humid.

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I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Summer continues to be our deadliest, most destructive season by about tenfold

https://katu.com/news/local/oregon-deaths-related-to-historic-heat-wave-climb-to-69

 

For us WA State the death toll is at 20 with 13 in King County and these numbers are expected to rise. Overall, almost 100 have died in OR and WA. This is excluding our neighbors up north where they’ve been devastated as well. 

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

A mostly wet and mild latter half of October and first half of November, followed by an arctic blast in late November, would be nice. Have not seen a significant amount of November snow in the lowlands in quite a while.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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15 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I know Oct/Nov 2016 was an absolute soaker, but I don't think the basin has had a "wet Fall" SINCE 2016... 

Can we get a few AR's before December this year? 

That was our last wet water year. Record wet October, decently wet November and then extremely wet February and March. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Maybe because we have trees… many many trees? 

We just need a good soak or two or three during July/August to keep some moisture content going, but apparently this seems too difficult a feat...

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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12 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

We just need a good soak or two or three during July/August to keep some moisture content going, but apparently this seems too difficult a feat...

I don’t think anyone is going to dispute this statement. Even Tim. But what we want/need is completely different how Mother Nature let things play out. 

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The sun is a little redder today. 

93/55.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I think a tornado just went through DC. Hellacious winds, tore through the trees and knocked out my anemometer.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF showed hot weather late next week and now the 18Z GFS steps it up more.    Starting to get a feeling that another hot spell is coming.     And I really wish that was not the case.  

Buckle your chin straps, boys. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

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3 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

Do you still have your cam up? Would love to see what it looks like there. 

We have two nest cams will see if they were online. Power was surging all over the place.

There was even a debris ball signature just south of here before it went through DC. I think we were in the inflow notch. 

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Ugh this is gonna be an expensive fix. Rain gauge isn’t working either now. Anemometer giving spurious or nonexistent readings. 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

We have two nest cams will see if they were online. Power was surging all over the place.

There was even a debris ball signature just south of here before it went through DC. I think we were in the inflow notch. 

I believe it, radar looks nasty right over DC. Seems like Richmond is getting hammered as well. 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

What are these icons next to our avatars?

I looked more into this, it looks like it’s a new feature Fred added in. It’s cool imo, sort of maybe an incentive for people to post more to earn ranks and badges. Appears that each time you post and people react to your posts, you earn points towards next rank. You can look under your profile to see.

Only downside I can see with this feature is people can potentially post nothing but junk to earn ranks and not weather related. Guess we’ll see how it plays out

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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Seriously, restoration forestry is a thing. Log the smaller trees, mulch the brush, then set fire to what remains. Because the ladder fuels are gone, you will have a ground fire that the remaining big trees survive. Then just let it burn whenever it catches fire, because it will be another ground fire.

Have seen the results of it in the eastern Cascades of both Oregon and Washington and it leaves a very aesthetically-pleasing open forest of large pine trees, with lots of forest floor wildflowers in the spring.

Only wrinkle is that there is not much money in small spindly logs, and no money at all in mulched brush, so such forestry never pays for itself. It must be subsidized.

I realize the terrain is vastly different, but my brother had thousands of acres of forest land in S. Georgia, and they strictly followed a burn management plan to keep the undergrowth in check.  They burned each section every 3 year or so (from what I remember).  Worked out great, very few fire issues from summertime lightning strikes,

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Really gorgeous day here again. Mostly cloudy and 73/62. Even scored some morning drizzle, enough to settle the dust at least.

I think all the local vegetation is appreciating having a couple day reprieve from blazing sunshine.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Really gorgeous day here again. Mostly cloudy and 73/62. Even scored some morning drizzle, enough to settle the dust at least.

I think all the local vegetation is appreciating having a couple day reprieve from blazing sunshine.

Yeah it was wet ground here also. Even had some fog. Felt amazing.

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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58 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a common around here. 100's of trees burnt.

20210701_174011.jpg

I noticed driving around doing errands today there were some trees that had a slight fall color to them today. Didn’t see anything quite that level in Tacoma but there’s some noticeable damage.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was our last wet water year. Record wet October, decently wet November and then extremely wet February and March. 

It's been that long, huh? I remember October 2016 being incredibly wet. The following winter was a winner. Had snowcover over in Coeur d'Alene for roughly 3 months.

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4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Two forecast bust days in a row.  Yesterday's forecast high was 88, actual 76.

Today forecast of 86, actual 72.

Haven't had that bad of a forecast bust since last September with the fire inversions.

Really odd that they didn't adjust the second day.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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