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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, CloudBFIWx said:

I looked more into this, it looks like it’s a new feature Fred added in. It’s cool imo, sort of maybe an incentive for people to post more to earn ranks and badges. Appears that each time you post and people react to your posts, you earn points towards next rank. You can look under your profile to see.

Only downside I can see with this feature is people can potentially post nothing but junk to earn ranks and not weather related. Guess we’ll see how it plays out

I think it's actually opposite - you get points for reacting.

Yay?

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A forum for the end of the world.

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I realize the terrain is vastly different, but my brother had thousands of acres of forest land in S. Georgia, and they strictly followed a burn management plan to keep the undergrowth in check.  They burned each section every 3 year or so (from what I remember).  Worked out great, very few fire issues from summertime lightning strikes,

Totally different, but the Southern pine forests are also a fire ecosystem.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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This marine push was pretty epic.  I see that even Vantage was only in the upper 70s this evening while places out of the line of fire from the Kittitas Valley were in the low 90s.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This marine push was pretty epic.  I see that even Vantage was only in the upper 70s this evening while places out of the line of fire from the Kittitas Valley were in the low 90s.

Impressive..Hard to keep Vantage in the upper 70s in July

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18 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Two forecast bust days in a row.  Yesterday's forecast high was 88, actual 76.

Today forecast of 86, actual 72.

Haven't had that bad of a forecast bust since last September with the fire inversions.

They're probably going by the GFS surface obs forecasts which are horrific as of late...with the exception of a few days here and there.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This is a common around here. 100's of trees burnt.

20210701_174011.jpg

We are feeling so lucky in our area, I am not seeing any tree damage yet here. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Really odd that they didn't adjust the second day.

The ECMWF was insistent that the marine layer would stick around most of the day today for about 4 or 5 days now.     Marine layer days are not usually in the mid 80s.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

High was exactly normal, though.

Far cry from expectations a few days ago.

Not sure about that... I was posting a few days ago about Thursday possibly being cloudy and in the 70s.    I posted ECMWF maps of the marine layer still in place in the middle of the afternoon.   Before that it did appear warmer for sure.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I remember alot of talk about how Seattle would be in the 80's all week and warming further in to the weekend, definitely more talk about that a few days ago than talk about clouds and 70's.

Yeah... I was just looking back and this is correct.   Of course at the time we were saying the ECMWF was horrible with temps because it was so low for the heat wave and we were more trusting of the GFS.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hindsight is 20/20 of course... but this outcome made more sense after a extreme heat event.    And of course the models would struggle with a strong inversion.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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My cedars in the back look slightly off glancing at them just now. Hopefully it’s just my paranoia. I’m blaming it on the tribbles along with the heatwave. My grass is not slowing down however, I have not watered it at all but it’s green as can be still (other than where my dogs are burning it with their pee) 

74/59 on the day, currently 64. 
.02” on the day. 

654E5CD9-E6FF-457B-AC0C-CAA344D960FB.jpeg

90F311C2-7585-4DEB-AECB-72C0B4F32D7D.jpeg

51BAC428-6C09-4F72-A349-6E0CD8DE53CA.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

My cedars in the back look slightly off glancing at them just now. Hopefully it’s just my paranoia. I’m blaming it on the tribbles along with the heatwave. My grass is not slowing down however, I have not watered it at all but it’s green as can be still (other than where my dogs are burning it with their pee) 

74/59 on the day, currently 64. 
.02” on the day. 

654E5CD9-E6FF-457B-AC0C-CAA344D960FB.jpeg

90F311C2-7585-4DEB-AECB-72C0B4F32D7D.jpeg

51BAC428-6C09-4F72-A349-6E0CD8DE53CA.jpeg

Oh my, O’Hara!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Plus a warming climate and over a century of forest mismanagement.

Forest mismanagement was a big factor to the 2017 and 2018 fire storms in BC.  Too much fire suppression in areas that traditionally have frequent burn cycles.   That and all the standing dead timber from the pine beetle 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

I remember alot of talk about how Seattle would be in the 80's all week and warming further in to the weekend, definitely more talk about that a few days ago than talk about clouds and 70's.

Yup.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yup.

Well you got some mileage out of an inversion in a non-troughing situation.   But that can't last.     Now we get ready for all that cold troughing for next week that you have been promising!    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Digusting wildfires are going to be producing disgusting wildfire smoke throughout the PNW region.  You have BC and California mainly to thank for the soon to come smoke.  Oregon is also contributing a good amount this year as well.

The two models below predict the smoke will be cover the Columbia Basin  and the Puget Sound.  It appears it will be mostly high atmosphere smoke which will make our skies look hazy, orange, and rather unpleasant.  Thankfully no low level smoke yet it appears... and unless you live in the foothills or up in the clouds, air quality should be good through this first taste of wildfire smoke, one of our earliest tastes of it ever.  Usually it comes in late summer.  

Another fun fact, Washington never has it's own wildfire smoke it sits in.  It simply collects everyone elses for some reason. :P 

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.57.00 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.56.35 PM.png

 

Thoughts and prayers to those whose lives were upended due to the disgusting wildfires in BC.  It burned 90% of the small town of Lytton.  How horrible. :( 

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Potential for a good outcome for us on the 0z GFS with any bit of luck at all.  A heatwave tries to set up, but gets crushed pretty rapidly.  Anyway that's a week out and dependent on a cutoff low mucking up the works.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well you got some mileage out of an inversion in a non-troughing situation.   But that can't last.     Now we get ready for all that cold troughing for next week that you have been promising!    

GFS kills off that ridge pretty fast later next week. :) 

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Just now, NWbyNW said:

Digusting wildfires are going to be producing disgusting wildfire smoke throughout the PNW region.  You have BC and California mainly to thank for the soon to come smoke.  Oregon is also contributing a good amount this year as well.

The two models below predict the smoke will be cover the Columbia Basin  and the Puget Sound.  It appears it will be mostly high atmosphere smoke which will make our skies look hazy, orange, and rather unpleasant.  Thankfully no low level smoke yet it appears... and unless you live in the foothills or up in the clouds, air quality should be good through this first taste of wildfire smoke, one of our earliest tastes of it ever.  Usually it comes in late summer.

Another fun fact, Washington never has it's own wildfire smoke it sits in.  It simply collects everyone elses for some reason. :P 

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.57.00 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.56.35 PM.png

We have sat in WA state produced smoke before... but usually import it for some reason.  🙄

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, NWbyNW said:

Digusting wildfires are going to be producing disgusting wildfire smoke throughout the PNW region.  You have BC and California mainly to thank for the soon to come smoke.  Oregon is also contributing a good amount this year as well.

The two models below predict the smoke will be cover the Columbia Basin  and the Puget Sound.  It appears it will be mostly high atmosphere smoke which will make our skies look hazy, orange, and rather unpleasant.  Thankfully no low level smoke yet it appears... and unless you live in the foothills or up in the clouds, air quality should be good through this first taste of wildfire smoke, one of our earliest tastes of it ever.  Usually it comes in late summer.

Another fun fact, Washington never has it's own wildfire smoke it sits in.  It simply collects everyone elses for some reason. :P 

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.57.00 PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-07-01 at 9.56.35 PM.png

The BC fire looks pretty close to where that supercell was the other day.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS kills off that ridge pretty fast later next week. :) 

So much rain through day 13... we are going to flood.      This sucks because it actually does rain in July normally.  

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-6350400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wind blew so hard earlier it ripped chunks of bark off the sycamore trees. That stuff peels naturally but it’s hard to remove.

Geesh.

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Potential for a good outcome for us on the 0z GFS with any bit of luck at all.  A heatwave tries to set up, but gets crushed pretty rapidly.  Anyway that's a week out and dependent on a cutoff low mucking up the works.

Are we talking about avoiding extreme heat... because that should be pretty easy.     

But colder than normal weather for any length of time... going to take more than a bit of luck.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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One thing I find interesting is when that 4CH tries to pop up during week two the models rapidly retrograde the energy from the ridge back out over the Pacific.  So far nothing too awful looking showing up for this month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wind blew so hard earlier it ripped chunks of bark off the sycamore trees. That stuff peels naturally but it’s hard to remove.

Man that storm was something.

Sounds like your heatwave must have broke.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds like your heatwave must have broke.

Just in time for the 4th of July weekend! Best case scenario.

Tho wasn’t really a heatwave here. Mid 90s w/ mid-100s heat indices is pretty typical stuff, only a +5°F anomaly.

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Phil gets a much colder than normal air mass this weekend... highs in the low 80s with much less humidity.    Same tangible weather as my backyard... but it takes a warmer than normal air mass here to get the same result.   And we will both enjoy our weather this holiday weekend.  👍

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-5324400.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil gets a much colder than normal air mass this weekend... highs in the low 80s with much less humidity.    Same tangible weather as my backyard this weekend... but it takes warmer than normal air mass here to get the same result.  

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-t850_anom_stream-5324400.png

Will be our first July 4th under 90° since 2016.

I’m really looking forward to this one. Usually we’re drenched in sweat and alcohol by the time the fireworks start. This year it’ll just be alcohol. 

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I know this isn’t a geology forum, but Taal volcano on Luzon is rumbling, incredibly high levels of So2 have been emitted around the caldera this past few weeks. Will be interesting to see if it there is a large eruption. Hopefully everyone can be evacuated and there is no loss of life if that happens.

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