TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: We're getting a good signal for a decent mid month trough...even the EPS. We'll see if we can really pull it off this time. Dude. Are you trying to guarantee the opposite again? 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 30 minutes ago, sand dune said: That's sad. Most of our trees are drought and heat resistant. It's hard to kill a Ponderosa pine. I think the Sitka spruce is more suited for the coast, but we do have some in this area. I hope they make it. Just the heat was one thing, but the added dry east wind tipped the balance in some places. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Are you trying to jinx the GFS into verifying? The EPS actually has a decent trough signal at that time also. It seems like all of the model busts (reality vs what has been shown for week 2) have gone against us so far. That can't last forever. We have the strongest trade wind burst in quite some time about to commence in the tropics. That should reshuffle the deck. That's not to say we couldn't have one more shot of heat before it really flips. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The EPS actually has a decent trough signal at that time also. It seems like all if the model busts (reality vs what has been shown for week 2) have gone against us so far. That can't last forever. We have the strongest trade wind burst in quite some time about to commence in the tropics. That should reshuffle the deck. That's not to say we couldn't have one more shot of heat before it really flips. Right now... nature seems intent in doing the opposite of what you expect this summer. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Good news is that the 12Z GEFS just shows a typical warm pattern for the next 10 days. That is the best we can hope for right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 At least it’s not drizzling. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Good to read some folkx saw marine clouds this morning. Severe clear here. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend. It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again. I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again? You serious? Hopefully this does not verify Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Just now, seattleweatherguy said: You serious? Hopefully this does not verify Don't want to ever see another model run show that kind of heat. I don't even want to know it's possible again. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 After two oddly warm marine layer days... its already just about up to the high yesterday before 11 a.m. The sky sure is beautiful today though... all the haze is gone. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Driving to longview. Pretty thick smoke n of St. Helens (the town) haven’t seen it like this for 10 months 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Don't want to ever see another model run show that kind of heat. I don't even want to know it's possible again. Let's keep Forks, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam below 100.☀ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: After two oddly warm marine layer days... its already just about up to the high yesterday before 11 a.m. The sky sure is beautiful today though... all the haze is gone. Yep smokes pretty much gone up to 67 here marine layer burned off quicker today. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z GFS is worst case scenario starting next weekend. It brings back offshore flow and ridiculous heat again. I sure hope it's up to its usually tricks of over-amplifying in the mid and long range. How in the hell is it possible to see this in the models again? It’s pretty much impossible to happen but that’s what we said the first time. I wouldn’t be suprised to see a stretch of mid 90s here and low 100s in Oregon…but I can’t imagine we will see widespread +105-110 readings again this summer or for the next few summers. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, sand dune said: Don't want that outcome. Euro will be different. Let’s hope so. Tree and vegetation damage is already evident here…with no rain coming and potentially another heatwave it could be another big blow. Even a few low to mid 90s could be bad. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It’s pretty much impossible to happen but that’s what we said the first time. I wouldn’t be suprised to see a stretch of mid 90s here and low 100s in Oregon…but I can’t imagine we will see widespread +105-110 readings again this summer or for the next few summers. Or ever would be nice! 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoodCanalBridge Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Going to be a long 2-3 months in the PNW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Thankfully the 12Z ECMWF does not show anything close to the heat that the GFS showed. Same general pattern... but the ECMWF keeps onshore flow going which keeps temps mainly in the 80s to low 90s. 3 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Thankfully the 12Z ECMWF does not show anything close to the heat that the GFS showed. Same general pattern... but the ECMWF keeps onshore flow going which keeps temps mainly in the 80s to low 90s. The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 I really like where the ECMWF is going at the end of the last two runs. Looks like energy from the 4CH will bleed into the ridge over the Pacific. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Phil said: At least it’s not drizzling. Undoubtedly solely caused by climate change. I'm sure they failed to mention the epic cold winter they had. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Marine clouds are gone and airshow id under way. IMG_4747.MOV 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken? I think so too... which has me a little nervous. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 78 and sunny here... let's just keep it exactly like today. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Undoubtedly solely caused by climate change. I'm sure they failed to mention the epic cold winter they had. Nope, doesn't fit the narrative. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Luckily the Euro has been far more reasonable than the GFS the last day or two, I would much rather have that be the case than the other way around. Persistent warmth but no heatwave. It's been nice to have some marine clouds the last few days, and it looks like Oregon and Washington are mostly smoke free at the moment. It will inevitably return over us at some point but it's nice to see it put off as long as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 The 12Z EPS is also really nice and does not show the ridge amplifying to our north in the 7-10 day period like the GFS. Just typical warmth... no heat. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 Fully prepared for all the models to develop a significant heatvave for sometime later this month. Should start to light everything up at that point and a lot of cities will fall. 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 45 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: The GFS was the first to show the ridiculousness for the last hellwave, if I'm not mistaken? It did and people should not discount what it's seeing now either. The model may be very good at seeing LR stuff so I guess we'll see how it'll go a few more runs but it's terrifying thinking about another severe heatwave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The 12Z EPS is also really nice and does not show the ridge amplifying to our north in the 7-10 day period like the GFS. Just typical warmth... no heat. Give it time. We mocked at what the GFS was showing last time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 12Z EPS still shows a weak trough signal at the end of the run as well... around the middle of the month. At least there is hope that there will be no prolonged heat. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, T-Town said: Marine clouds are gone and airshow id under way. IMG_4747.MOV Yeah I took a few videos earlier at work to was pretty cool to see again. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 73 and sunny. Pretty crazy it was this warm at sunrise a few days ago. Has been so nice just getting some normal summer weather. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 91 and abundant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 The 12z EPS actually shows slightly below normal 850s for the Western Lowlands by mid July. Finally looks like it might be locking onto a cooler pattern. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 34 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said: Give it time. We mocked at what the GFS was showing last time. I highly doubt SEA hits 100 again this summer. A few low to mid 90s? Sure but you’ve gotta remember we’ve only had 4 +100 days here in the 21st century. The fact that we just had 3 in a row makes it even more improbable. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: The 12z EPS actually slightly below normal 850s for the Western Lowlands by mid July. Finally looks like it might be locking onto a cooler pattern. It can't lock into a cooler pattern for a timeframe that just came into view and is so far out. We have seen lots of troughing at that range become ridging and/or warmer than normal weather as it got closer. Give it another 5 days and then we will have a better idea. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I highly doubt SEA hits 100 again this summer. A few low to mid 90s? Sure but you’ve gotta remember we’ve only had 4 +100 days here in the 21st century. The fact that we just had 3 in a row makes it even more improbable. Our climate is changing and we’re living it. Hate to see it but I wouldn’t be surprise if we see more 100s in the future, if not again this summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 3, 2021 Report Share Posted July 3, 2021 7 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said: I’m embarrassed to say that I definitely suffer from weather anxiety these days. I miss the summers of my childhood. Seeing the 12Z GFS made me anxious... we can't withstand that again. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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