Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

The shot with rainier in the background is awesome. 
 

Are you seeing Orcas down there in the mornings?  I saw a few of your pics but didn’t expect it was a recurring thing. 

I’m learning how to stock these beautiful creatures.  Joined a FB group “Orca Network” and they give sighting info.  So this morning I heard the pod of orcas were passing Blake island and heading into Colvos passage.  So I hightailed it down Ruston Point and waited patiently. They move fast.  The trend is they come into Commencement Bay and head towards the mouth of the puyallup River then head back towards the Gig Harbor entrance.  It’s a guess if they go north or south from there. I witnessed a pod of 5!  The male in the group had a HUGE dorsal fin!! The activity I witnessed was breaching, flapping their tails hard in the water and twisting about as well ( binoculars).  So this is my third sighting in four days.  Pretty cool!  Perhaps next time they will hug the bank so I can get a proper picture.  Cool stuff anyhow.

crude map of their travels this morning 

34CEA1F3-711D-41C0-AA21-5B57EF8A1223.jpeg

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Currently refreshing and cloudy 55F in Anchorage.  :)

Screen Shot 2021-07-03 at 6.38.29 PM.png

My God that sounds so nice. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Awesome photos! And yes as t-town asked when have the whales been usually showing up? Sounds like you’ve been getting pretty lucky and seen them a few times. 

Tried yesterday in my kayak but they were up north. Perhaps tomorrow morning I will try again in the yak and enjoy the airshow from the water!!! 
Love where we live 😁

Lots at jellyfish down there….this shot turned out cool with the water reflecting the green leaves from trees 

Sunny and 83 now ( because this is a weather forum 🤪)

16B75656-C6A9-48D7-8302-44CC92CBF945.jpeg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Beautiful late afternoon on the middle fork of the Snoqualmie River... water is chilly but felt refreshing on this warm day.   

20210703_155227.jpg

  • Like 4

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

For those who are worried about the so called blob....this year is not the same situation that has caused us problems in the past.  The center of the positive SST anoms are much further offshore and this is actually a -PDO signature.  The latest PDO update had June at -1.88.

Sadly the UW no longer updates the monthly PDO values, but these should be in the ballpark and it is an official NOAA product.  I remember reading a brief overview of how the UW calculated their version of the PDO values and I may attempt to recreate it based on the reanalysis data.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | Teleconnections | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

  • Troll 1
  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those who are worried about the so called blob....this year is not the same situation that has caused us problems in the past.  The center of the positive SST anoms are much further offshore and this is actually a -PDO signature.  The latest PDO update had June at -1.88.

Sadly the UW no longer updates the monthly PDO values, but these should be in the ballpark and it is an official NOAA product.  I remember reading a brief overview of how the UW calculated their version of the PDO values and I may attempt to recreate it based on the reanalysis data.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | Teleconnections | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) (noaa.gov)

Apparently don't need to the blob to have a warm summer.   Because we are looking at a warm summer.   June was way above normal.  And by the middle of the month... July will probably have a large enough warm departure to guarantee a warm month.   And that only leaves August.   And I if had to bet now... August will not be colder than normal.

  • Troll 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Phil said:

The PNW (and New England) are the places to be tomorrow.

77°F degrees is as close to 4th of July perfection as is physically possible.

0310557B-A2B1-4837-8D9A-E8EE82253AB2.png

Oregon is part of the Pacific Northwest. It'll be in the 90s here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Jginmartini said:

Nice shots!  I was down there early for the Orca show and then hung out for the airshow!  Just a few folks down there…..thing looked back to normal 

EC12197C-DE62-4F1B-9C91-29E2BCC5FF43.png

46F895D9-51BE-4066-A67A-708E2295F218.png

CA39FC23-0ACB-4C70-BABE-580DD9E40320.jpeg

Awesome pics!   

That boat (actually a small yacht) in the last pic is packed with people!   

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

  • Sad 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

I don’t think it’ll actually be that hot but widespread 90s sounds pretty yuck. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Apparently don't need to the blob to have a warm summer.   Because we are looking at a warm summer.   June was way above normal.  And by the middle of the month... July will probably have a large enough warm departure to guarantee a warm month.   And that only leaves August.   And I if had to bet now... August will not be colder than normal.

The interesting part about this is that a hot June doesn't necessarily guarantee a warmer than normal July and August as well. There was a post made the other day about a last 10 Junes having warmer  than normal temps and it was a 50/50 split for "above average" and "below average" July and August -- this was posted by the NWS Seattle.

Base on what we're seeing now, at least thru first half of the month, July is going to be warm... let's hope somehow it evens out and have a below normal August. Maybe by then, Phil's trough will finally arrive. 

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually does not end up nearly as bad as the 12Z run.     

This appears to be warmest day on this run... which is actually much cooler than the 12Z run.

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_max6-6220800.png

If we didn't go thru the last heatwave or even some of the previous runs, I don't think you'd be using the word "cooler" for this map. I don't see how this can be equate  as "cool" Christ, it's still hot though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

If we didn't go thru the last heatwave or even some of the previous runs, I don't think you'd be using the word "cooler" for this map. I don't see how this can be equate  as "cool" Christ, it's still hot though. 

Well the 12Z run showed 110-115 for most of us again... so yeah mid 90s would be a cake walk comparatively.

But I like how it backed down so I doubt it gets even as warm as the 00Z run.

And the 00Z run shows an actual trough by 300 hours! 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6436800.png

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Hot gfs run it appears. Lots of 90s and willamette valley even gets into the low 100s. This summer is really going to blow past 2015. 

It still shows the trough afterward.  We're getting a lot of consistency on that now.  Still too early to make general statements about the entire summer.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well the 12Z run showed 110-115 for most of us again... so yeah mid 90s would be a cake walk comparatively.

But I like how it backed down so I doubt it gets even as warm as the 00Z run.

And the 00Z run shows an actual trough by 300 hours! 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6436800.png

Let's hope this downward trend continues and not the GFS floundering!

That's actually a nice looking Phil Trough. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I still have a feeling the eastern 2/3 of the country is going to roast once the pattern flip comes.  We may well go through one more somewhat significant heatwave before the change though.  We'll see if the big trade wind burst coming up over the equatorial Pacific really kicks things in the arse finally.

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

Yeah... we laughed when it showed 110-115 degrees.   And then it happened.

  • Like 7

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It still shows the trough afterward.  We're getting a lot of consistency on that now.  Still too early to make general statements about the entire summer.

The first half of the summer alone is pretty crazy…add in another heatwave potentially coming shown on the gfs (euros to pretty warm too we will see what the 0z shows) and by mid July this is pretty much a guaranteed hot summer unless it’s literally average-below average the entire second half of July through august…which we know won’t happen. Highly likely there’s more heatwaves between mid July and mid September. 

  • scream 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people still basing anything on the absurd GFS surface output?  So far my comparison of that to reality shows it 8F too high on average for SEA highs.  Apply a 6 to 10 degree correction and it might be useful.

It’s probably not going to be that hot obviously but it’s looking pretty warm. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CloudBFIWx said:

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

The v16 (now the current GFS) was about as stupid as it could this past winter with some of the surface outputs in Jan-Feb.  Just saying we gotta look at both sides of the coin here if we're going to criticize the model. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

😃

Great point... the GFS is just as stupid on the cold side.    

Except the hot side usually verifies. Not the case for the cold stuff, at least here.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Except the hot side usually verifies. Not the case for the cold stuff, at least here.

Yup... kinda sucks but it's reality. Maybe one day we'll have some stupid cold show and it actually end up verifying. One extreme deserves another.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is a surprisingly less amount of people NOT lighting fireworks this year in my neighborhood. There’s literally none! Maybe it’s because they sent out a letter prohibiting and have cops around.

Will be out of town tomorrow but I hope it continues tomorrow night. We need it. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

There is a surprisingly less amount of people NOT lighting fireworks this year in my neighborhood. There’s literally none! Maybe it’s because they sent out a letter prohibiting and have cops around.

Will be out of town tomorrow but I hope it continues tomorrow night. We need it. 

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice little surprise on the ECMWF tonight.  Cool far sooner than other runs have shown.  FWIW the GFS ensemble control was similar.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...