Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, CloudBFIWx said:

So you're not gonna adamantly tout the GFS surface output when it comes wintertime then right? 

Since the "upgrade" it's terrible.  I think everyone knew there was no chance Saturday would hit 90 in SEA.  I think it's decent on the upper air stuff, but it's clueless on surface temps.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

The first half of the summer alone is pretty crazy…add in another heatwave potentially coming shown on the gfs (euros to pretty warm too we will see what the 0z shows) and by mid July this is pretty much a guaranteed hot summer unless it’s literally average-below average the entire second half of July through august…which we know won’t happen. Highly likely there’s more heatwaves between mid July and mid September. 

I don't think we know anything for sure right now.  A major pattern change is looking more likely now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, JBolin said:

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

About 11-12 years ago there was a stray firework that flew into someone's home because their windows were opened and caused a massive fire to one side of the house. It was unfortunate and they couldn't find out who lit the firework but safe to say the people that lived in that house are long gone from this neighborhood. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears the key to the upcoming pattern is a major reversal of the WPO from what we've been seeing.  The EPS shows it tanking pretty good in less than a week.  A major reshuffling of the deck.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, JBolin said:

This is nothing new, fireworks have been banned in the city of Seattle since roughly the early 90's, the problem lies within the ability to effectively enforce this ban which I "believe" falls under Code 107-SE. 

That said it would appear that perhaps, (perhaps) many folks this year especially on the westside are cognizant of just how detrimental an unregulated consumer explosive can be and the subsequent "damage" inflicted upon a neighborhood or even an entire community.

Neverminded the fact that one "errant" firework could lead to a huge fire that negatively impacts not only your "idiot" neighbor and his Murica' entitlement but the irreversible damage caused by such egregious behavior. 

In any event, here's hoping no one loses their home, neighboring property or even a loss of life. 

Celebrate safely and responsibly folks. 

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

  • Like 3
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we do go into a cool pattern for the second half of the month that will be a very big deal given that's been a nearly impossible time to get a trough this century.  Right now the chances look pretty good.  The GEM has a deep trough by day 10 also.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

To each their own Jim and I don't hate fireworks myself but there has to be some semblance of "enforcement". Until that happens we will continue to see the quintessential brush/home/forest fire/s and those negatively impacted by such poor "decision" making when engaging in "celebrating" the Fourth of July. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow... fell asleep early but just saw the ECMWF and EPS just took away inkling of a second heat wave.   Big change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today will be one minute and four seconds SHORTER than yesterday! ⏰😃👐

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Yet another example (if any were needed) of why one should never take clown range seriously.

After looking over the models this morning... I think mid July will likely be troughy now.   All of the models are now on board and trending in that direction.    That is a significant change.

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I don't think we know anything for sure right now.  A major pattern change is looking more likely now.

That’s nice to see and hopefully it verifies but Yeah unless we get troughing now through September though it’ll still be an above normal summer. We’re already well ahead of schedule in terms of warm days across the region. Pretty much no way we don’t see more heat. Hasn’t been a legit cool summer in a decade…even 2019 was still warmer than normal. 

  • scream 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low of 57 and cloudy happy 4th. Plz be responsible with the fireworks had plenty of people lighting them off here last night. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Low of 57 and cloudy happy 4th. Plz be responsible with the fireworks had plenty of people lighting them off here last night. 

Yeah... it was annoying last night here with constant fireworks after it got dark. 

In addition to the fire hazard... we will also have lots of firework haze and pollution tomorrow morning.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sunny start to the day here... does not appear to be any elevated smoke either.   Although you can see the smoke on the satellite just north of the border.   Looks like the low clouds have stopped their inland progression so it should be a pretty quick burn off for the cloudy areas other than along the coast.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it was annoying last night here with constant fireworks after it got dark. 

In addition to the fire hazard... we will also have lots of firework haze and pollution tomorrow morning.  

I don’t mind hearing them on the 4th in any year…but I’d rather not hear them at all this year unless it’s the show down on commencement bay. It’s pretty unfortunate but we will be lucky if we get through today without any brush fires starting. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

If common sense were widespread, there really wouldn’t be much need for a ban. Unfortunately, asking people to think of others will cause a certain crowd to go on about “muh freedom” and light fireworks near dry vegetation anyhow, just to show the world that nobody is the boss of them.

Just like with indoor smoking, it is the antics of those most opposed to the bans that, ironically enough, furnish the most convincing arguments in favor of banning.

Liberty requires responsibility.

  • Like 6
It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm not a fan of fireworks being banned.  Just more freedom being taken away from us.  No doubt some common sense would go a long way this year with how dry it is though.

The one good thing about living in a swamp climate…no fire risk in the summer. Shoot off as many fireworks as you please. Technically it’s still not legal to shoot them off within 100ft of a building (old law) but it’s not enforced at all.

Sometimes they’ll put a temporary moratorium on them during winter/New Years holiday if it’s really dry. But never during the summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I finally managed to get the house below 70 this morning!  It feels so nice.

It's nice to see the models are trending cooler with the little mini trough a few days from now also.  Good trends right now.

  • Like 2
  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Today will be one minute and four seconds SHORTER than yesterday! ⏰😃👐

I like the short days of winter and all, but the long days of summer aren't a terrible thing.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

That’s nice to see and hopefully it verifies but Yeah unless we get troughing now through September though it’ll still be an above normal summer. We’re already well ahead of schedule in terms of warm days across the region. Pretty much no way we don’t see more heat. Hasn’t been a legit cool summer in a decade…even 2019 was still warmer than normal. 

An above normal summer is one thing, but one of the top 5 hottest is another.  The latter is far from a lock right now.

  • lol 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

An above normal summer is one thing, but one of the top 5 hottest is another.  The latter is far from a lock right now.

I am hoping that my (and most others’ here) forecasts of a bad smoke season bust as badly as the general consensus in late August of last year that there was not going to be a bad smoke season. It doesn’t seem super-likely at the moment, but it could happen, if there is a pattern shift to troughy and showery.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A top 5 warm summer is an absolute LOCK right now. Only question is will we beat 2015. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SLE running a +8.0 departure for July. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE running a +8.0 departure for July. 

SEA is only at +3.7

But WFO SEA is at +7.2 and BLI is +6.0 and OLM is +4.0

Jared might have to switch it up and talk about how SEA is always the coldest anomaly in the region now.  😃

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is everyone ready for the 87 being forecast by the GFS for SEA today? 🤠

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A top 5 warm summer is an absolute LOCK right now. Only question is will we beat 2015. 

Oh brother.

  • Downvote 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Is everyone ready for the 87 being forecast by the GFS for SEA today? 🤠

ECMWF shows 82... that will probably end up close.     This set up seems to favor the ECMWF and mitigates its normal cool bias.

Almost 70 here now and sunny.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GFS shows a nice pattern for keeping the heat at bay early next week... this would likely be sunny and warmer than normal but not real hot.  

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6112800.png

  • Like 2
  • Sun 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still some heat advisories posted for the inland regions of the PNW. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wonder if we have ever had a July with all 31 days above average?

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a nice pattern for keeping the heat at bay early next week... this would likely be sunny and warmer than normal but not real hot.  

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6112800.png

A reset ridge off the coast seems best case scenario, just can't imagine a suppressed 4ch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kinda interesting down here at the coast talking to a couple guys who just returned from Bristol Bay gill netting talked about how absolutely brutal the weather had been.  Worst in decades according to them.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

We're finding more and more of these exceptions!

Maybe there has been an adjustment?   The ECMWF seems to be running warmer than I would expect it to given the pattern recently and given its history.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Deweydog said:

Kinda interesting down here at the coast talking to a couple guys who just returned from Bristol Bay gill netting talked about how absolutely brutal the weather had been.  Worst in decades according to them.  

Epic AL?  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing for sure is the coastal SSTs are going to plunge with upcoming pattern.  Classic surface high pressure configuration for major upwelling. 

I think there is a high chance a lot of people are totally wrong about the remainder of this summer.  The models are becoming increasingly confident of a major pattern shift.  People should know better than to think a given pattern will lock in for an entire season.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wonder if we have ever had a July with all 31 days above average?

Sure doesn't look like this one will be.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...