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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Called off our annual family fireworks show that we put on at the farm in Carnation since it's so dry out, so now we are staying home all day. Got an inflatable pool for the kids to have some fun in today but not getting much sun yet to warm it up. 

Looks like that might start changing soon though. Some thinning of the marine layer in the last few frames of satellite. Sitting at 61 after a chilly low of 55.

image.thumb.png.f29377d1fb176b8e7b2b17947326d15a.png

10 degrees warmer on this side of the ridge.  

But yeah... the entire low cloud area is starting to thin and retreat from all sides so this afternoon should be beautiful everywhere around here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF shows 82... that will probably end up close.     This set up seems to favor the ECMWF and mitigates its normal cool bias.

Almost 70 here now and sunny.  

Weird that it’s about the 3rd time in the last week where you’ve cleared out faster than us. I thought the marine layer normally behaves similarly between our areas. Maybe it’s coming from a more southerly trajectory allowing Tiger Mtn to block it?

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is the coastal SSTs are going to plunge with upcoming pattern.  Classic surface high pressure configuration for major upwelling. 

I think there is a high chance a lot of people are totally wrong about the remainder of this summer.  The models are becoming increasingly confident of a major pattern shift.  People should know better than to think a given pattern will lock in for an entire season.

🥶

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing for sure is the coastal SSTs are going to plunge with upcoming pattern.  Classic surface high pressure configuration for major upwelling. 

I think there is a high chance a lot of people are totally wrong about the remainder of this summer.  The models are becoming increasingly confident of a major pattern shift.  People should know better than to think a given pattern will lock in for an entire season.

SSTs are always going to "plunge".    😃

You said that a couple months ago and they are still not ice fishing off Westport.  

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47 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A top 5 warm summer is an absolute LOCK right now. Only question is will we beat 2015. 

Not in Jim’s fantasy land island lol. Would be a miracle if this summer isn’t dominated by heat and wildfires out west. I do like you Jim but this summers not going to be cool and I’d so love if i was wrong and had to eat my words in late august. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Kinda interesting down here at the coast talking to a couple guys who just returned from Bristol Bay gill netting talked about how absolutely brutal the weather had been.  Worst in decades according to them.  

That is kind of interesting.  Maybe something has finally kicked us into a different regime.  I for one am going to be very interested to see how the remainder of this summer plays out.  The fact I'm actually interested in the weather and posting this summer could mean something.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Weird that it’s about the 3rd time in the last week where you’ve cleared out faster than us. I thought the marine layer normally behaves similarly between our areas. Maybe it’s coming from a more southerly trajectory allowing Tiger Mtn to block it?

It has been mostly sunny here from the start today.  A weak marine push usually gets stopped by Rattlesnake Ridge and Tiger Mountain.   Its pretty common in the summer and one reason that my area is often warmer on many days than Seattle.

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not in Jim’s fantasy land island lol. Would be a miracle if this summer isn’t dominated by heat and wildfires out west. 

Have you not noticed the progressively cooler trend of the models the last few runs?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Have you not noticed the progressively cooler trend of the models the last few runs?

Yeah we might get some troughing for like a few days or a week like we do almost every summer? It’s nice to see but it’s not guaranteed yet… it’s not going to last all summer. 20 out of 33 days have already been above average here since June 1st. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SSTs are always going to "plunge".    😃

You said that a couple months ago and they are still not ice fishing off Westport.  

We’ve been in a major cool regime since February.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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What is the opposite of cool?

 

But seriously, yes progressively cooler than 112. I still see no sign of below average weather in NW Oregon. Maybe some close to average days here and there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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One pretty interesting thing is the June PDO was the 9th lowest June reading since 1854 according to the NOAA site.  That makes the heatwave seem all the more astonishing.  I think the warming along the immediate coast is an artifact of the heatwave and will rapidly abate...and in fact has already begun doing so.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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6 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah we might get some troughing for like a few days or a week like we do almost every summer? It’s nice to see but it’s not guaranteed yet… it’s not going to last all summer. 20 out of 33 days have already been above average here since June 1st. 

This is a pretty major longwave pattern change being shown.  People are way too hung up on where we've been and should be looking at where we are going.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is a pretty major longwave pattern change being shown.  People are way too hung up on where we've been and should be looking at where we are going.

And yet... its very possible that the models back off as it approaches.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Great GFS run overall. 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just noticed that the hemlocks here are shedding their burnt needles pretty quickly.    There are lots of brown needles on the steps leading down to our lower garage that were not there yesterday.   Our trees actually looking better today than they did on Friday.

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Heading out on Lake Sammamish in a couple hours... should be a perfect 4th on the boat with an air temp in the low 80s and a water temp around 78.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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33 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not in Jim’s fantasy land island lol. Would be a miracle if this summer isn’t dominated by heat and wildfires out west. I do like you Jim but this summers not going to be cool and I’d so love if i was wrong and had to eat my words in late august. 

Doesn't have to be either 2015 (or HOTTER) or a cool summer, though. The reality will likely be much more in between for most places, no matter how many 90+ days Tiger racks up.

SEA is quickly falling well behind 2015 in the 85+ and 90+ days stats.

A forum for the end of the world.

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42 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Have you not noticed the progressively cooler trend of the models the last few runs?

Except you should know that a cooler trend for a period doesn’t necessarily mean a cooler pattern overall. That’s only for a fixed period of couple weeks. We’re talking about months for summer. The overall outlook is still warmer and dryer than normal. 

F61C1B85-5A06-4EDD-A8C9-5F1592C568B8.png
 

and for July 

F017B0C1-ABD8-4ECE-AC44-AF6C292535D9.jpeg

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Is everyone ready for the 87 being forecast by the GFS for SEA today? 🤠

Running about the same as this time compared to yesterday. My is it’ll end up meeting in the middle between the EURO and GFS. 

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33 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Great GFS run overall. 

Only 8 highs at 90F or above for the next 10 days...wow, that really is something.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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I am reminded that a couple weeks ago Phil was telling me make sure I had reservations in a sunny place for the 4th because it was not looking nice here... but we had to cancel them so we can be here for our weather perfection today.  👍

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12Z GFS is pretty wimpy with the troughy signal after day 10... and 850mb temps are still warmer than normal at 300 hours.   So it might be a little early to talk confidently about a major cool down and troughing.    Much like it was 2 weeks ago. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-6501600.png

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I just took a burnt hemlock branch and shook it and it turned from brown to normal green in a matter of seconds as all the brown needles feel off exposing green needles underneath.   That has to be a good sign.   If we get a decent wind... much of the visible tree damage might disappear.  

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16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I just took a burnt hemlock branch and shook it and it turned from brown to normal green in a matter of seconds as all the brown needles feel off exposing green needles underneath.   That has to be a good sign.   If we get a decent wind... much of the visible tree damage might disappear.  

Shhhh! This comment may not fit so well with 'the narrative'!

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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6 minutes ago, CloudBFIWx said:

And there it is folks. I’ve been waiting for this since the heatwave. Surprise? Shouldn’t be. I would avoid the waters If necessary, as tempting as they make look. 

https://komonews.com/news/local/10-beaches-closed-because-of-high-fecal-bacteria-levels-heat-wave-could-be-to-blame

Luckily... Lake Sammamish is all good on the map.    And most of Lake Washington as well.    

 

lakesamm.png

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13 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

Shhhh! This comment may not fit so well with 'the narrative'!

I am sure the tree damage is much more extensive in other areas.   But up here... it looks like the burnt needles are just falling off and the trees will look normal again soon.   Likely because its been wet enough up here.   We are still right around normal rainfall for the year.    That helps the trees withstand the heat.  

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I am sure the tree damage is much more extensive in other areas.   But up here... it looks like the burnt needles are just falling off and the trees will look normal again soon.   Likely because its been wet enough up here.   We are still right around normal rainfall for the year.    That helps the trees withstand the heat.  

There is not much tree damage here, either, which is not really a big surprise considering this area had some of the highest dew points and lowest temperature maxima during the recent extreme heat wave. But that is just my local area. Some of the photos Mr. Snowmizer shared from the Kitsap Peninsula look very concerning.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is not much tree damage here, either, which is not really a big surprise considering this area had some of the highest dew points and lowest temperature maxima during the recent extreme heat wave. But that is just my local area. Some of the photos Mr. Snowmizer shared from the Kitsap Peninsula look very concerning.

Our trees look like some of the pics he posted... but I think the damage is mostly on the surface.   Like getting a sunburn and then peeling.  

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12Z ECMWF might get there at the end... but its WAY slower with the troughing for next week than its 00Z run.

Its probably too early to be assuming major troughing will actually happen.    At least in my opinion.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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