Jump to content

July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Euro 3 days ago for 7/9.

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_9.thumb.png.d45498e6309166fc028f166e17d4a190.png

 

Euro today for 7/9.

 

ecmwf_T850a_nwus_6.thumb.png.c2044d5b9d59ec95a70a6ded7e10e5b7.png

 

None of the days on this run, in fact, are even as hot as what yesterday's 12z showed 6 days out.

Glad we will likely avoid anything really hot.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Clouds breaking up here. About two hours behind yesterday. 66 degrees.  
 

No real tree damage here that I can see. We definitely didn’t get as hot as some other areas though. 

These ones here don’t look too good. They were healthy about a week ago. We got off pretty easy compared to other areas with the heat forsure. 

49EBDAF2-6E92-45B2-9613-6623EB7BF75A.jpeg

  • Sad 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF might get there at the end... but its WAY slower with the troughing for next week than its 00Z run.

Its probably too early to be assuming major troughing will actually happen.    At least in my opinion.  

It’s pretty much a lock for a kold July. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Farmboy said:

Shhhh! This comment may not fit so well with 'the narrative'!

What narrative? There’s literal tree damage across the area worse in some spots than others…we don’t know what the long term effects will be yet. 

  • Like 5

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Doesn't have to be either 2015 (or HOTTER) or a cool summer, though. The reality will likely be much more in between for most places, no matter how many 90+ days Tiger racks up.

SEA is quickly falling well behind 2015 in the 85+ and 90+ days stats.

I’d be willing to bet that this will be like summer 2017 and 2018 as a best case scenario and 2015 or worse as a worse case scenario. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, James Jones said:

WOW. Sure has been a chilly summer and it looks to stay that way!

🥶

No one is saying that.

Plenty of people are pounding the unprecedentedly hot summer drum, though. As well as acting like the models always trend warmer.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows a nice pattern for keeping the heat at bay early next week... this would likely be sunny and warmer than normal but not real hot.  

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6112800.png

Worst possible pattern here..mid-90s with humid S/SW flow.

Luckily I’ll be in SE GA where onshore flow looks more likely now. Humid but not insanely hot.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pattern coming up looks downright cold! Might have to bring out the jackets and gloves 🥶

  • Like 1
  • Snow 2

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

69 degrees at nearly 1pm on a sunny day in July.  Pretty darn pleasant!

  • Like 2
  • Downvote 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It has been mostly sunny here from the start today.  A weak marine push usually gets stopped by Rattlesnake Ridge and Tiger Mountain.   Its pretty common in the summer and one reason that my area is often warmer on many days than Seattle.

Yeah… in a normal summer I would be complaining about that, but don’t mind a little more marine layer now after our inferno last weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

69 degrees at nearly 1pm on a sunny day in July.  Pretty darn pleasant!

We are on the sand bar now on Lake Sammamish with the boat.    Much warmer here... currently 77.    No chill to the air at all.    A perfect 4th of July!   

  • Like 3

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The ECMWF shows the highest SEA will get in the next 10 days is only 84.  That's bearing in mind it's low in some cases though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was pleasantly surprised by the thick marine layer this morning. Just now getting up above 70. Guessing we'll underperform in this area today. 

Happy 4th of July everyone!

  • Like 3

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Memorial Day and now the 4th... weather perfection!   I am sure Labor Day will be rainy now... which would be much better than what happened last year.  

20210704_142459.jpg

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

These ones here don’t look too good. They were healthy about a week ago. We got off pretty easy compared to other areas with the heat forsure. 

49EBDAF2-6E92-45B2-9613-6623EB7BF75A.jpeg

I'm not sure what species of Maple those are, they may not be native, we should probably stick to measuring the effects of the heat wave with native species...

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

What narrative? There’s literal tree damage across the area worse in some spots than others…we don’t know what the long term effects will be yet. 

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

  • Downvote 2

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Maybe Tiger Woods is onto something with Salem.  73 in SEA right now and 88 in Salem.  Pretty ridiculous spread.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Sitting in our pool sipping a beer and I notice this little guy perched at the top of our American flag. Awesome coloring on him.

Happy Independence Day everyone!

20210704_135742.jpg

That reminds...I need to put my flag out.  I'll probably leave it for the rest of the summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Geos said:

I was pleasantly surprised by the thick marine layer this morning. Just now getting up above 70. Guessing we'll underperform in this area today. 

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Underperforming might be the first sign of things to come.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Farmboy said:

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

There is one area about 5 miles from here that got roasted.  I was pretty shocked to see it.  I live in an area where easterly dry continental winds can hit one place, but not places a few miles away.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hmmm.  The GFS seems to be pretty spot on for the temps in Salem today.  It appears it's just poorly suited for handling the marine influence that Seattle sees.  As I've mentioned the GFS has been off by an average of 8 degrees for SEA over the last week on high temps.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Drove through the Coast Range today. Really heartbreaking to see the amount of dying pine needles on the trees. Lots of really stressed trees out that way. Lot of my own plants took quite a beating too. I have maple trees dropping dead leaves as if it were the fall, the entire top layer of leaves got burned to a crisp. Rhododendrons and Hydrangeas are starting to recover now but lots of burned up leaves on them. Hoping the climate will show some mercy but I can't help but feel that this dreadful sight of dying vegetation is something that will only become more common 😩 going forward.

 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 4
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Hmmm.  The GFS seems to be pretty spot on for the temps in Salem today.  It appears it's just poorly suited for handling the marine influence that Seattle sees.  As I've mentioned the GFS has been off by an average of 8 degrees for SEA over the last week on high temps.

FWIW, the GFS sucks with CAD out this way. Erodes the inversion too quickly 90% of the time. Maybe same thing going on there w/ the marine layer?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We did it again! 90F!!

D70B5965-958C-4C07-95D1-115715EE758F.jpeg

  • Sad 1
  • Sun 1
  • Sick 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z GFS shows a legit shot at a day or two with highs in the 60s during week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Maybe Tiger Woods is onto something with Salem.  73 in SEA right now and 88 in Salem.  Pretty ridiculous spread.

I’m in Springfield 60 miles south of Salem…

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Farmboy said:

Maybe there was some stress caused by the heat.  I'd hesitate in referring to it as 'damage' unless you've picked out certain trees before the heat wave to monitor the before and after effects...  Let's be scientific about this instead of haphazardly throwing around blanket statements about trees you didn't specifically monitor before the heat wave.  Sorry if this sounds anal, but I think things like this can get us into a whole heap of trouble if we don't cross our t's and dot our i's...

Do you even go around our area and see what we’re seeing? There’s obvious vegetation and tree damage to native and non native vegetation. many people have posted about it. How about you come and see for yourself before just shrugging it off. You are literally over in Idaho you have no idea what you’re talking about 😂.

  • Like 3

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

Drove through the Coast Range today. Really heartbreaking to see the amount of dying pine needles on the trees. Lots of really stressed trees out that way. Lot of my own plants took quite a beating too. I have maple trees dropping dead leaves as if it were the fall, the entire top layer of leaves got burned to a crisp. Rhododendrons and Hydrangeas are starting to recover now but lots of burned up leaves on them. Hoping the climate will show some mercy but I can't help but feel that this dreadful sight of dying vegetation is something that will only become more common 😩 going forward.

 

It’s pretty crazy. Things have already been struggling the last several years then last weeks event came along and just poured gasoline on the fire. Pretty sad to see.
 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 18z GFS shows a legit shot at a day or two with highs in the 60s during week two.

I really hope so man. I’d so love to be wrong about it being hot this summer I really really do. 

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Jesse said:

It’s pretty crazy. Things have already been struggling the last several years then last weeks event came along and just poured gasoline on the fire. Pretty sad to see.
 

 

Yeah but some guy over in Idaho said it’s not that bad so better just ignore it it’s totally fine. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah but some guy over in Idaho said it’s not that bad so better just ignore it it’s totally fine. 

What is really shocking is how widespread the problems are. Could be a pretty big step change in vegetation type in some areas. The hemlocks in particular have just been annihilated in spots, especially below 1,200’.  At least down here, calling them a lowland species might not be very representative of their range anymore.

  • Like 3
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...