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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Today will be one minute and eight seconds SHORTER than yesterday! 🤩🥰

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

5 gross or semi-gross days out of 16 on the 06z GFS (including today, which will push 90).

I'll take it.

Any rainfall on the horizon? 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some sprinkles in places on Wednesday. Other than that still a little too early to tell with the mid-month trough, probably not a significant rainfall producer though.

We need a lot more than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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70F and beautiful this morning.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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No marine layer here this morning. Severe clear since sunrise. 

Looks like SLE managed to hit 90 yesterday for the 2nd day in a row. Took an after 5p reading to do so, but tis the season. Because of the upper 50s low their monthly departure actually dropped a bit to +7.8. Looks like they got down to 57 this morning. 

 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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April-June ONI came in at -0.5.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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New 12Z run of the Canadian smoke model keeps the elevated and surface level smoke away from us for the next 3 days at least.

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=tc&utc=12

https://weather.gc.ca/firework/firework_anim_e.html?type=em&utc=12

Looking at the visible satellite this morning from BC... there are clouds but the smoke situation up there is not too bad overall.   That is a band of high clouds moving east through north central WA.

 

COD-GOES-East-regional-ca_reg_west.02.20210705.161020-over=map-bars=.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Even a bit cooler than yesterday at this time.  Didn't see that coming.  We've gotten into a pretty decent low cloud regime now.  The high temps for the Seattle area have actually been rather pedestrian so far this month and cooler temps are coming.  Even the little mini trough later this week looks decently cool.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Even a bit cooler than yesterday at this time.  Didn't see that coming.  We've gotten into a pretty decent low cloud regime now.  The high temps for the Seattle area have actually been rather pedestrian so far this month and cooler temps are coming.  Even the little mini trough later this week looks decently cool.

Looks warmer than average here. The PNW is more than Washington and if we get smoky, then you eventually will too.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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12 hours ago, SnowChild said:

Tacoma in flames 🔥 

It was an old building.  Fires have been burning buildings for eons.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks warmer than average here. The PNW is more than Washington and if we get smoky, then you eventually will too.

Below normal temps are coming for your area also.  Maybe even Wednesday and or Thursday.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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21 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

No one is saying that.

Plenty of people are pounding the unprecedentedly hot summer drum, though. As well as acting like the models always trend warmer.

It has just gotten ridiculous on here.  The models are looking way better, but the doom and gloom narrative hasn't changed.

It's highly possible that aside for the big heat blast the remainder of the summer will end up normal or even a bit on the cool side.  Nothing to suggest the second half of the summer will be the hell people are talking about.

As for the general warm summer trend lately....this stuff is cyclical.  There is strong evidence of terrible Western droughts that lasted for centuries in the not too distant past.  The climate is constantly changing and did so all on its own before man had any possible effect on it.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Below normal temps are coming for your area also.  Maybe even Wednesday and or Thursday.

Looks average for temps at best…even on the euro. Even the last few “cool” days were slightly above average…high temps may have been average but low temps were above. But heck average is a win at this point. There’s a few average days and more above average days in the mix for WA and OR. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Everyone here needs to start popping OxyContin so we can get on Jim’s level.

Seriously. I took a mega dose of DMT and couldn't even get there. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12Z GFS shows basically no rain for the next 16 days... but at least BC gets some.     And Phil is going to get a boat load of rain.

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-6868800.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS shows basically no rain for the next 16 days... but at least BC gets some.     And Phil is going to get a boat load of rain.

gfs-deterministic-namer-total_precip_inch-6868800.png

Atleast some of the states in drought are getting some rain but the west coast could sure use some. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The 4CH gets its arse kicked pretty good on this run.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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33 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks average for temps at best…even on the euro. Even the last few “cool” days were slightly above average…high temps may have been average but low temps were above. But heck average is a win at this point. There’s a few average days and more above average days in the mix for WA and OR. 

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

It's been 120 hours since our last historically warm month. 

Overdoo!

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Wow.  I still can't get over how terrible the GFS surface stuff is for SEA.  How it gets the numbers being shown based on the 500mb pattern coming up is beyond me.

Yesterday was a great example...forecast 87 and actual 77.  I ended up with 79 here with less marine influence.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's been 120 hours since our last historically warm month. 

Overdoo!

Looks like a long while before anything hot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically cold about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 cold stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a low temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The maxes have been a bit low, but that will change too.

Imagining this just after our historically cold December to come…

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49 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Another mostly cloudy start to the day. Sure seems like this is the new normal - solid marine layer in the morning with an eventual breakthrough at some point during the day. Been like that for almost a week straight now after seemingly very little days like this before.

Low of 57 this morning.

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

For clarification... all of western OR is sunny this morning.    Not much marine layer down there. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It was an old building.  Fires have been burning buildings for eons.

Some people evidently think fire is a relatively recent phenomenon.  I thought it's been around since at least the Paleozoic era...?

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"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At any rate there has been nothing even close to historically warm about this month so far and nothing in sight.  The top 5 summer stuff is being overblown based on the guidance we currently have.  From a high temp perspective this month has been pretty typical so far.  The mins have been a bit high, but that will change too.

My overnight low was 51° last night here in McMinnville.

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8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Wasn't long ago that people were lamenting how they missed marine layer days, and the new normal was little to no marine layer in the summer.

It’s been trending that way, a couple marine layer mornings at a random location in King County notwithstanding. The trend is especially apparent the further south you go. How you could argue anything otherwise is beyond me, but then I need to remind myself who I am responding to.

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For clarification... all of western OR is sunny this morning.    Not much marine layer down there. 

Sure, today.

But there's no doubt the marine layer has made a big-time comeback across the PNW lowlands overall over the past week or so.

It's significantly tempered a period that many were thinking would be much warmer - at least for highs.

The Pacific is still there and still matters.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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