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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

 

As for the general warm summer trend lately....this stuff is cyclical.  There is strong evidence of terrible Western droughts that lasted for centuries in the not too distant past.  The climate is constantly changing and did so all on its own before man had any possible effect on it.

 

Screenshot_20210705-115451~2.png

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

It’s been trending that way, a couple marine layer mornings at a random location notwithstanding. The trend is especially apparent the further south you go. How you could argue anything otherwise is beyond me, but then I need to remind myself who I am responding to.

I just thought it was ironic that hawks twelve was now calling it the new normal. 

The cool thing is that most trends don't turn into runaway trends, and some even reverse.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I just thought it was ironic that hawks twelve was now calling it the new normal. 

The cool thing is that most trends don't turn into runaway trends, and some even reverse.

Meaningless babble.

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When was the last time we had a stretch of 90+ degree highs quite like this at my place? 

91,91,94,101,103,100,94,93,94,96,94. That's impressive. I haven't been in a wave like that ever.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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7 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

When was the last time we had a stretch of 90+ degree highs quite like this at my place? 

91,91,94,101,103,100,94,93,94,96,94. That's impressive. I haven't been in a wave like that ever.

Not a lot of data for Sunriver’s climate but it’s definitely been well above average this month so far. This upcoming weekend is looking pretty brutal across the OR/CA high plateau for heat as well.

Upon searching Nowdata there’s a disconnect between the Mesowest station and the NWS station - Nowdata says yesterday was 93/41, which is an incredible 52°F diurnal. 

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9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Not a lot of data for Sunriver’s climate but it’s definitely been well above average this month so far. This upcoming weekend is looking pretty brutal across the OR/CA high plateau for heat as well.

Upon searching Nowdata there’s a disconnect between the Mesowest station and the NWS station - Nowdata says yesterday was 93/41, which is an incredible 52°F diurnal. 

Lows have been in the 50's, not quite as large of a gap here. Still though, heatwaves are known to be relatively short lived in Klamath Falls. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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59 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Imagining this just after our historically cold December to come…

Last week of November. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, 1000'NorthBend said:

It’s been misting all morning here. Not enough to register in the rain gauge, but it feels great

Pretty interesting situation... you can see the top of the ridge is in the sun on the satellite and yet just below that it was misting from a very low cloud deck.   I wonder how much firework pollutant particles were a factor?   Its pretty gunky out there and it almost looks like ground level smoke hanging around.    Hopefully it mixes out soon.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That ULL that is leftover from the big trough next week keeps getting weaker and farther north on each run.    

The 12Z ECMWF has it meandering around up near south Alaska one week from today.    The 12Z run yesterday showed it had push behind it at that time and it coming south.    Not a trend that some people will mention... but it is noticeable.

12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run on the bottom for one week from today:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (2).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Predictable copout.

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That ULL that is leftover from the big trough next week keeps getting weaker and farther north on each run.    

The 12Z ECMWF has it meandering around up near south Alaska one week from today.    The 12Z run yesterday showed it had push behind it at that time and it coming south.    Not a trend that some people will mention... but it is noticeable.

12Z run yesterday on top and new 12Z run on the bottom for one week from today:

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (1).png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400 (2).png

It’s gonna be cold…lol. We should be above normal by mid July with lots of low to mid 80s and a few mid 70s shown on the euro. Average to a bit above average isn’t bad though. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s gonna be cold…lol. We should be above normal by mid July with lots of low to mid 80s and a few mid 70s shown on the euro. Average to a bit above average isn’t bad though. 

The EPS does not look cold early next week either... out through day 8 so far.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6177600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The EPS does not look cold early next week either... out through day 8 so far.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-6177600.png

Hard to imagine July’s going to end up any less than +1.  We will see though it’s still early. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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43 minutes ago, Jesse said:

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

Looks like the marine layer didn't cease to exist entirely, which is what everybody was saying happened. There's still a big ocean to our west, which obviously nobody besides me was smart enough to account for. Also not every single day is into the 90s so this summer isn't very hot. 

I am very intelligent.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

You didn’t say anything. People are talking about observed climate trends that have been going on for years now and you are making obvious statements about long term climate uncertainty as if that somehow negates reality.

Sounds like you were reading a bit much into what I said... nothing about long term climate uncertainty. 

Just commentary on the nature of *trends*, people's perspective on them, and how sometimes they reverse. 

2009 was a near record sunny summer in Seattle. It was followed by a near record cloudy summer. I think sometimes people can be a bit too prisoner of the moment on here.

Not saying there haven't been less marine layer days in recent years, I'm sure there have. But that doesn't mean it's a trend that can't or won't reverse.

But I understand if you'd prefer to just listen to an unending chorus of Californication.

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28 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Looks like the marine layer didn't cease to exist entirely, which is what everybody was saying happened. There's still a big ocean to our west, which obviously nobody besides me was smart enough to account for. Also not every single day is into the 90s so this summer isn't very hot. 

I am very intelligent.

Get the ad hominem sh*t out of here.

Thanks.

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27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS does show a weak troughy signal after day 10... but was quite a bit slower than the 00Z run.

So does the GEFS. Probably a case of models jumping a bit too aggressively on the pattern signal yesterday, as they often do.

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Wow we had 2 marine layer days last week and another day the layer burned off about 11am... WHAT A COMEBACK.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We are heading towards potentially our 3rd 90+ high in a row in the Willamette Valley, but reading the comments of some people on here you would think the region was in the grips of a green tomato summer. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are heading towards potentially our 3rd 90+ high in a row in the Willamette Valley, but reading the comments of some people on here you would think the region was in the grips of a green tomato summer. 

Probably time to reinvent your OR only thread.

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are heading towards potentially our 3rd 90+ high in a row in the Willamette Valley, but reading the comments of some people on here you would think the region was in the grips of a green tomato summer. 

Still 64 at SEA at 1 p.m.    Brrrrr!

Side note... our tomatoes and everything else are going gangbusters.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Still 64 at SEA at 1 p.m.    Brrrrr!

Side note... our tomatoes and everything else are going gangbusters.  😀

Because it has been a hot summer so far. As for the Oregon/SW WA only thread. It is becoming apparent I was a man ahead of my time. There is a groundswell of support for the idea. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Because it has been a hot summer so far. As for the Oregon/SW WA only thread. It is becoming apparent I was a man ahead of my time. There is a groundswell of support for the idea. 

Its been a warm summer overall with an extreme hot spell for 3 days.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Deweydog said:

Will members be locked out of threads based on their location?

That would probably be the only way to maintain echo chamber integrity. 

Lol I’m also wondering if the new forum boundary will be king county 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is out at SEA and still only 65 at 2 p.m. 

Might have a sub-70 day... inversion lives on.  

66 here…might jussst barely get our first below high temp since mid June but even so it’d be -1 probably so basically average. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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28 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol I’m also wondering if the new forum boundary will be king county 

I think a committee should be formed to decide the boundaries. We can’t screw this up with so much on the line. Winter is coming!

Might be a good argument to make three separate west side threads. I feel like I can’t relate entirely to either Eugene or North Bend. I feel alienated and I need to be digitally coddled.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I think a committee should be formed to decide the boundaries. We can’t screw this up with so much on the line. Winter is coming!

Might be a good argument to make three separate west side threads. I feel like I can’t relate entirely to either Eugene or North Bend. I feel alienated and I need to be digitally coddled.

So a north bend thread, Washington thread and an Oregon thread 😂 maybe throw in a separate Eugene thread too. 
 Honestly could see us having 2 threads though…didn’t work in the past but doesn’t mean it couldn’t work now. There’s plenty of Washington and Oregon posters. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

So a north bend thread, Washington thread and an Oregon thread 😂 maybe throw in a separate Eugene thread too. 

Maybe a Covington thread too?   That area seems to be the only place having a frigid summer this year.    😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I find it rather interesting that even the ECMWF is coming in high on max temps for the Seattle area.  Pretty good inversion setting in.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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