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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, TT-SEA said:

Maybe a Covington thread too?   That area seems to be the only place having a frigid summer this year.    😀

Covington truly defies the odds every year. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Maybe a Covington thread too?   That area seems to be the only place having a frigid summer this year.    😀

Totally absurd post.  I don't know why people think I'm nuts for saying we are entering a different pattern.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The SUN! Up to 68 degrees. 

Incredible day.  Only 69 here and it's almost 3pm.

Don't you know the narrative is supposed to be we are going fry endlessly this summer?

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

So a north bend thread, Washington thread and an Oregon thread 😂 maybe throw in a separate Eugene thread too. 
 Honestly could see us having 2 threads though…didn’t work in the past but doesn’t mean it couldn’t work now. There’s plenty of Washington and Oregon posters. 

Lots to consider…

Maybe you have a immigration process where a certain number of folks on either side of the boundary can defect if they so choose, after a rigorous vetting process of course.

If you do two, the most reasonable cut off would probably be the Cowlitz/Lewis border.  I don’t think we have any regulars anywhere near that area.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Lots to consider…

Maybe you have a immigration process where a certain number of folks on either side of the boundary can defect if they so choose, after a rigorous vetting process of course.

If you do two, the most reasonable cut off would probably be the Cowlitz/Lewis border.  I don’t think we have any regulars anywhere near that area.

Just the sheer amount of vetting and processing will be a lot to handle. Will need to set up 2 different forum committees. Could take a long time. Lewis county seems like a good border!

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Totally absurd post.  I don't know why people think I'm nuts for saying we are entering a different pattern.

Does not seem too different for the next 10 days... but there will be a weak trough on Wednesday and Thursday.    

The days that the ECMWF shows the low clouds all the way inland seem to end up cooler than projected... like today.    Tomorrow should be warmer.   And then the cooler 850mb temps on Wednesday and Thursday might allow the inversion to break.   The ECMWF shows basically no low clouds all the way inland from Friday through the middle of next week.    So it's going to be pretty warm.    

The stuff after day 10 is a crapshoot.   You know that.   I just doubt any significant troughing over the PNW for the next couple weeks.   So it's all an inversion game.   

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Does not seem too different for the next 10 days... but there will be a weak trough on Wednesday and Thursday.    

The days that the ECMWF shows the low clouds all the way inland seem to end up cooler than projected... like today.    Tomorrow should be warmer.   And then the cooler 850mb temps on Wednesday and Thursday might allow the inversion to break.   The ECMWF shows basically no low clouds all the way inland from Friday through most of next week.    So it's going to be pretty warm.    

The stuff after day 10 is a crapshoot.   You know that.   I just doubt any significant troughing over the PNW for the next couple weeks.   So it's all an inversion game.   

Out of the next 10 days 3 look average and the rest above average. Not seeing this pattern change. No major roasting though for now. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Out of the next 10 days 3 look average and the rest above average. Not seeing this pattern change. No major roasting though for now. 

Totally agree.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I ask Jim... how the pattern in a week so different?    And in a week... the troughing beyond day 10 now might not look like much.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SLE up to 85, running -2 compared to yesterday. Going to be a close call whether they can score yet another 90 degree day. It has been a VERY HOT summer so far. Today is no exception. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I find it rather interesting that even the ECMWF is coming in high on max temps for the Seattle area.  Pretty good inversion setting in.

Yeah, it's clear that every model has its own weaknesses in different patterns for surface temps.

Overall, it seems that the current GFS runs too warm for most locations, and the Euro runs too cool for a few locations in the summer...but the Euro is definitely closer overall. It was much maligned for its "cool bias" leading up to the big heatwave, but within a few days I think it was actually a bit closer to reality than the GFS.

And obviously the Euro has been much closer than the GFS since the heatwave ended.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Up to 68 at SEA and the wind is variable now.     A sub-70 day seems unlikely now.   Would need a need SSW wind but onshore flow is weakening. 

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Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, it's clear that every model has its own weaknesses in different patterns for surface temps.

Overall, it seems that the current GFS runs too warm for most locations, and the Euro runs too cool for a few locations in the summer...but the Euro is definitely closer overall. It was much maligned for its "cool bias" leading up to the big heatwave, but within a few days I think it was actually a bit closer to reality than the GFS.

And obviously the Euro has been much closer than the GFS since the heatwave ended.

It's all noise. My only takeaway is the heat continues. Tim would have died for this kind of heat in 2011. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Up to 68 at SEA and the wind is variable now.     A sub-70 day seems unlikely now.   Would need a need SSW wind but onshore flow is weakening. 

Of course Seattle is not going to have a sub-70 day. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, it's clear that every model has its own weaknesses in different patterns for surface temps.

Overall, it seems that the current GFS runs too warm for most locations, and the Euro runs too cool for a few locations in the summer...but the Euro is definitely closer overall. It was much maligned for its "cool bias" leading up to the big heatwave, but within a few days I think it was actually a bit closer to reality than the GFS.

And obviously the Euro has been much closer than the GFS since the heatwave ended.

GFS seems to always miss inversions.   So a rudderless pattern in the summer is going to be a major weakness and is more favorable for the ECMWF.

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2 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

 

 

p168i.gif?1625358310

Looks about right!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Incredible day.  Only 69 here and it's almost 3pm.

Don't you know the narrative is supposed to be we are going fry endlessly this summer?

Take your beef up with those people. Myself, I made no predictions. I do favor above-average temperatures overall, but that does not necessarily mean an epic torching for the rest of summer. (Even a fraction of a degree F above average is still above average.)

It's called clown range for a reason.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

We are heading towards potentially our 3rd 90+ high in a row in the Willamette Valley, but reading the comments of some people on here you would think the region was in the grips of a green tomato summer. 

I never thought we were headed for that. Just somewhere between a record hot and 2010 type summer. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS seems to always miss inversions.   So a rudderless pattern in the summer is going to be a major weakness and is more favorable for the ECMWF.

Agreed. There just seems to be more things the GFS misses in general, for most locations.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Just their 5th sub-80 day in the past week.

From 6/25-7/9, 2015, they had 0 of those.

Whoopdee freaking do. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Whoopdee freaking do. 

It's more like 2013 or 14 when we baked with a much more definted N/S gradient.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Get the ad hominem sh*t out of here.

Thanks.

I just don't know what your point is with anything you've been posting. That the multi-decade trend of warming could potentially reverse itself in the future, backed with no evidence at all - a point so obvious that you could say that about literally any trend ever observed in history because of how time works (the future hasn't happened yet, therefore we can't be certain about what will occur)? Here's the facts about summers here:

- They've seen an overall warming trend that goes back all the way to the beginning of observed records in the PNW starting in the 1800s

- That trend has accelerated in the last 40ish years

- There have been blips in that trend along the way, sometimes lasting for a decade+, see the 1950s

- 2010 was a cooler and cloudier summer than 2009, then in the decade since then we've seen a bunch of even warmer and even sunnier summers

- The marine layer has been much less prevalent since 2012, something clear even to casual observers living here

The ad hominem is because it seems like your primary motivation with this is to try to downplay the warmth we've been seeing. If we had just seen the coldest December ever observed by Europeans that included the most intense cold snap ever recorded with subzero highs in places on the west side, followed by another week of cold but not record breaking conditions, I doubt you'd be reacting like this.

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3 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I just don't know what your point is with anything you've been posting. That the multi-decade trend of warming could potentially reverse itself in the future, backed with no evidence at all - a point so obvious that you could say that about literally any trend ever observed in history because of how time works (the future hasn't happened yet, therefore we can't be certain about what will occur)? Here's the facts about summers here:

- They've seen an overall warming trend that goes back all the way to the beginning of observed records in the PNW starting in the 1800s

- There have been blips in that trend along the way, sometimes lasting for a decade+, see the 1950s

- 2010 was a cooler and cloudier summer than 2009, then in the decade since then we've seen a bunch of even warmer and even sunnier summers

- The marine layer has been much less prevalent since 2012, something clear even to casual observers living here

The ad hominem is because it seems like your primary motivation with this is to try to downplay the warmth we've been seeing. If we had just seen the coldest December ever observed by Europeans that included the most intense cold snap ever recorded with subzero highs in places on the west side, followed by another week of cold but not record breaking conditions, I doubt you'd be reacting like this.

It seems like the ones most intent on commenting on conditions here don't actually live here...

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--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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14 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I just don't know what your point is with anything you've been posting. That the multi-decade trend of warming could potentially reverse itself in the future, backed with no evidence at all - a point so obvious that you could say that about literally any trend ever observed in history because of how time works (the future hasn't happened yet, therefore we can't be certain about what will occur)? Here's the facts about summers here:

- They've seen an overall warming trend that goes back all the way to the beginning of observed records in the PNW starting in the 1800s

- That trend has accelerated in the last 40ish years

- There have been blips in that trend along the way, sometimes lasting for a decade+, see the 1950s

- 2010 was a cooler and cloudier summer than 2009, then in the decade since then we've seen a bunch of even warmer and even sunnier summers

- The marine layer has been much less prevalent since 2012, something clear even to casual observers living here

The ad hominem is because it seems like your primary motivation with this is to try to downplay the warmth we've been seeing. If we had just seen the coldest December ever observed by Europeans that included the most intense cold snap ever recorded with subzero highs in places on the west side, followed by another week of cold but not record breaking conditions, I doubt you'd be reacting like this.

Since you apparently didn't read my other response to Jesse, let me repost it for you. Not sure why you felt the need to type out a bunch of stuff I mostly agree with. But you seem way too concerned with my motivations.

Sounds like you were reading a bit much into what I said... nothing about long term climate uncertainty. 

Just commentary on the nature of *trends*, people's perspective on them, and how sometimes they reverse. 

2009 was a near record sunny summer in Seattle. It was followed by a near record cloudy summer. I think sometimes people can be a bit too prisoner of the moment on here.

Not saying there haven't been less marine layer days in recent years, I'm sure there have. But that doesn't mean it's a trend that can't or won't reverse.

But I understand if you'd prefer to just listen to an unending chorus of Californication.

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's more like 2013 or 14 when we baked with a much more definted N/S gradient.

Would the pattern emulate those years though? To threaten another top-tier July seems a little excessive. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

The 110 degree high certainly was. The remainder not so much given their average high is 66 degrees.

Remember all those posts about "where else on earth would you find something like this" last week? You made a couple yourself. They all came back to the record high temps, obviously.

To go straight from record-smashing temps to essentially normal the next day and going forward, and not coming closer than 40 degrees of those temps, to me was interesting.

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6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Since you apparently didn't read my other response to Jesse, let me repost it for you. Not sure why you felt the need to type out a bunch of stuff I mostly agree with. But you seem way too concerned with my motivations.

Sounds like you were reading a bit much into what I said... nothing about long term climate uncertainty. 

Just commentary on the nature of *trends*, people's perspective on them, and how sometimes they reverse. 

2009 was a near record sunny summer in Seattle. It was followed by a near record cloudy summer. I think sometimes people can be a bit too prisoner of the moment on here.

Not saying there haven't been less marine layer days in recent years, I'm sure there have. But that doesn't mean it's a trend that can't or won't reverse.

But I understand if you'd prefer to just listen to an unending chorus of Californication.

No, I read it. This is just downplaying with a bunch of "we don't know what the future holds" handwaving. Like I said, the most obvious stuff in the world without any real point.

Also a little ironic you're telling me I'm too concerned with your motivations while simultaneously saying other people are too prisoner of the moment, no?

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Just now, James Jones said:

No, I read it. This is just downplaying with a bunch of "we don't know what the future holds" handwaving. Like I said, the most obvious stuff in the world without any real point.

You read into it more than read it.

Like I said, I agreed with almost everything you said. Obvious stuff that you seem to think somehow proves a point to me?

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7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Remember all those posts about "where else on earth would you find something like this" last week? You made a couple yourself. They all came back to the record high temps, obviously.

To go straight from record-smashing temps to essentially normal the next day and going forward, and not coming closer than 40 degrees of those temps, to me was interesting.

Wasn’t it you who was giving out free reminders about a large ocean to our west?  It matters.

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You read into it more than read it.

Like I said, I agreed with almost everything you said. Obvious stuff that you seem to think somehow proves a point to me?

I'm genuinely unsure if you're trying to troll me right now, so this seems like a good place to end this back and forth.

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