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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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Wow!  Inversion on steroids today.  Temps are solidly below what I expected this afternoon.  Feels great out there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 minutes ago, James Jones said:

I'm genuinely unsure if you're trying to troll me right now, so this seems like a good place to end this back and forth.

Not trolling. Just don't read more into something than what's said.

Just because someone pokes at a popular narrative about marine layer days doesn't mean they're downplaying global warming or whatever you were trying to frame there.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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It seems the sustained onshore flow is really reaping some benefits now.  Coastal SSTs are sliding downward also which is probably adding a bit of extra coolness to things.  The dew points have been slowly inching lower as well.  Going to be really refreshing tonight.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Lester which is at 1500 feet is currently 80 while Greenwater at 2400 feet is 83.  At the same time SEA is 69.  Give me more of this!

I certainly remember a lot of inversion stuff in July 2011 also, and of course some legit cool that month as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

Lester which is at 1500 feet is currently 80 while Greenwater at 2400 feet is 83.  At the same time SEA is 69.  Give me more of this!

I certainly remember a lot of inversion stuff in July 2011 also, and of course some legit cool that month as well.

Is it 1954, 1955, or 2011?   I can't decide.     This year has been so much like all of those years.  ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm thinking the huge disconnect between the Puget Sound region and the Willamette Valley right now is the way the marine air has to go over the coast range to get to the latter.  That undoubtedly causes the inversion to mix out.  

Currently the flow of cool air through the Chehalis Gap is impressive.  Even at an elevation of 1700 feet in the Black Hills it's a chilly 57 degrees.  Places near the coast are running upper 50 to low 60s.  Very likely going to be an encore performance for the Puget Sound region tomorrow.  Getting through the early part of the month without a hot day is going to really help our chances for a reasonably cool monthly average.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking the huge disconnect between the Puget Sound region and the Willamette Valley right now is the way the marine air has to go over the coast range to get to the latter.  That undoubtedly causes the inversion to mix out.  

Currently the flow of cool air through the Chehalis Gap is impressive.  Even at an elevation of 1700 feet in the Black Hills it's a chilly 57 degrees.  Places near the coast are running upper 50 to low 60s.  Very likely going to be an encore performance for the Puget Sound region tomorrow.  Getting through the early part of the month without a hot day is going to really help our chances for a reasonably cool monthly average.

More about depth of the inversion. More subsidence, shallower it will be.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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34 minutes ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Weather service posted a fire weather watch for most of eastern WA…. And Oregon as well…. For lightning and wind on Wednesday. 

Do any of you have lightning forecast maps?  If those even exist?

3DFCB8DA-9C26-4D23-9B32-DA96690BA864.jpeg

I think this is a lightning projection... this is the loop through Wednesday.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-lightning_density_inst-1625508000-1625508000-1625702400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I ask Jim... how the pattern in a week so different?    And in a week... the troughing beyond day 10 now might not look like much.    

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-6134400.png

There’s really no cool down on the new gfs either. I’m sure the temps are overdone but still plenty of 80s coming. I feel like Jim just saw some cold runs a few days ago and hasn’t looked at the models since. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Dry thunderstorms are the most likely scenario. Wind + lightning is trouble.

Yeah definitely could be a bad situation coming. Has been lots of hot weather on the other side of the mountains. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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We did it again baby!!! Up to 91F!!!

14FCCE2E-3F26-4E35-B993-DAE918451120.jpeg

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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17 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Pretty common occurrence over here. No thunderstorms would be a blessing.

I realize I'm not of the popular opinion but thunderstorms may help things a bit. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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3 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I realize I'm not of the popular opinion but thunderstorms may help things a bit. 

If they have rain in them. If not they better just not show up!

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Pretty active fire just turned up on satellite in rural Douglas County.

E71A6632-2297-406D-A888-7D727B879533.jpeg

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Only 72 at SEA... but KRNT was 75 and that station is lower than SEA.   And WFO SEA came in at 76 and BFI was 73.     So once again... SEA is coldest spot in the Seattle area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

More fog and stratus at KSEA, maybe?

No... that whole area cleared from the SW to NE at the same time.    SEA was first to clear out.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Today was like the perfect summer day imo. Cool morning with clouds that gave way to mid to upper 70s with sun.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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SeaTac running a 72/56 spread for a mean of 64F. That is actually 1.5F below the norm for 7/5. Not sure if surrounding stations are congruent w/ that daily anomaly, but this one honestly snuck up on me. As far as I can tell, the high of 72F at the airport is not very representative of the rest of the sound, let alone the city, since my borough touched 78 about an hour ago.

Kind of forgot negative anomalies could happen anymore lol. Nice to see one again.

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

SeaTac running a 72/56 spread for a mean of 64F. That is actually 1.5F below the norm for 7/5. Not sure if surrounding stations are congruent w/ that daily anomaly, but this one honestly snuck up on me. As far as I can tell, the high of 72F at the airport is not very representative of the rest of the sound, let alone the city, since my borough touched 78 about an hour ago.

Kind of forgot negative anomalies could happen anymore lol. Nice to see one again.

What is even more funny is that it's SEA that is strangely cold now.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Somehow almost the entirety of the Western WA lowlands that has been experiencing a stronger-than-anticipated marine layer over the past week has been reduced down to "a random location in King County". 

Here's the marine layer this morning. Man... King County must have really expanded... 

image.png.37b549c025944673b04730a73c031179.png

Narratives. That’s why.

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30 minutes ago, sand dune said:

They are almost always dry. Our chance of precipitation is less than 20%. We'll likely end up with virga.

 

I've found that to be unusual for t'storms to be dry, at least since I've been in Klamath Falls. They are known to occur but I have run a 60-70% occurrence of wet convection compared to dry. 

There was maybe 1 dry storm in all of 2015, which is the year of the huge drought. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well how about that.  SEA averaged -2 today if the high of 72 holds.  Nice break for folks who think this month has a shot at not being a torch.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol wow this major inversion might net us a -1 or 2 departure today. 

I guess maybe I'm not so crazy after all, although I fully admit even I was surprised by how low it stayed today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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51 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

More fog and stratus at KSEA, maybe?

I think they are perfectly in line for being hit by the flood of ocean air spreading inland.  The really weird thing is they have been lower than my location for mins very consistently lately.  That almost never happens.

Impressively the visible sat pic showed the low clouds already advancing eastward again well before sunset.  With a pattern favorable for upwelling along the coast cold SSTs could help us even more going forward.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The GFS was a whopping 15 degrees too high on the forecast high for SEA today, while the normally cold biased ECMWF was even several degrees too high.  Goes to show what constant onshore flow can do.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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