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July 2021 PNW Weather Discussion


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13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS was a whopping 15 degrees too high on the forecast high for SEA today, while the normally cold biased ECMWF was even several degrees too high.  Goes to show what constant onshore flow can do.

Higher heights offshore seem to make a significant difference out there when it comes to marine influence.

Losing the Aleutian Low has done most of the work already, before the real troughing has even started.

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22 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well how about that.  SEA averaged -2 today if the high of 72 holds.  Nice break for folks who think this month has a shot at not being a torch.

They hit 73…we also hit 73 here. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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It appears the models are showing pretty strong onshore flow nearly every day right through next weekend.  That is going to really keep a cap on max temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

They hit 73…we also hit 73 here. 

I figured they might spike like that.  Still a nice surprise today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I figured they might spike like that.  Still a nice surprise today.

Hey a pretty average day is a win…average means it’s a beautiful comfy day. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The WA coast really has a chill going now.  Lots of mid 50s currently.  There's a 1000 foot mountain near Neah Bay that's at 51.  Upwelling!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

SSTAs have cooled, both offshore and over the Indo-West Pacific Warm Pool. Welcome trends.

48C42451-7F1F-4666-8CC7-7870BD6C0DC4.png

We're going to have a really strong -PDO signal once the cooling along the West Coast is complete.  As it is the -1.88 in June was the 9th lowest June since 1849.  I have a good feeling about the remainder of this summer.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The WA coast really has a chill going now.  Lots of mid 50s currently.  There's a 1000 foot mountain near Neah Bay that's at 51.  Upwelling!

Wow... that would be depressing.    Winter in the summer.    All that upwelling does for us is create picture perfect summer weather in the 70s and 80s and keeps us out of the 90s.     I don't want 90s or 100s and don't want cold and cloudy... I just want our usual goldilocks weather in between.   That is why everyone loves summer in Seattle.  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're going to have a really strong -PDO signal once the cooling along the West Coast is complete.  As it is the -1.88 in June was the 9th lowest June since 1849.  I have a good feeling about the remainder of this summer.

I hope you're right. I'd love the rest of summer to be cool if not downright chilly. It has come quite early this year so perhaps it will leave early as well.

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10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Jim’s gonna end up right.🤣

So back on the topic of coastal SSTs... you were of the opinion that they don't affect the weather past some bridge in Astoria.    But I just get a sense that cold SSTAs can have a significant impact all the way to the Cascades... with lower dewpoints and stronger inversions.    Maybe it all coincidence... and you have claimed that the upper levels drive our weather.   You once said "look up not down".   Not sure if that is still your opinion and I know its complicated and the blob became infamous and attributed to way more than it should... but I think in a quiet summer pattern those coastal SSTs do matter even way inland.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I think they are perfectly in line for being hit by the flood of ocean air spreading inland.  The really weird thing is they have been lower than my location for mins very consistently lately.  That almost never happens.

Impressively the visible sat pic showed the low clouds already advancing eastward again well before sunset.  With a pattern favorable for upwelling along the coast cold SSTs could help us even more going forward.

Also seems to be cooler than Shoreline north of Seattle, which is also unusual.

Another regular pattern the past week has been far less marine clouds up this way than further south. Still plenty of cool sea breeze, but generally fair skies and sunny.

It's called clown range for a reason.

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23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So back on the topic of coastal SSTs... you were of the opinion that they don't affect the weather past some bridge in Astoria.    But I just get a sense that cold SSTAs can have a significant impact all the way to the Cascades... with lower dewpoints and stronger inversions.    Maybe it all coincidence... and you have claimed that the upper levels drive our weather.   You once said "look up not down".   Not sure if that is still your opinion and I know its complicated and the blob became infamous and attributed to way more than it should... but I think in a quiet summer pattern those coastal SSTs do matter even way inland.

How many saved posts from this forum and maps are on your desktop?  Genuinely interested to know.

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

How many saved posts from this forum and maps are on your desktop?  Genuinely interested to know.

I listen to what Matt says and I remember what he says. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So back on the topic of coastal SSTs... you were of the opinion that they don't affect the weather past some bridge in Astoria.    But I just get a sense that it can have a significant impact all the way to the Cascades... with lower dewpoints and stronger inversions.    Maybe it all coincidence... and you have claimed that the upper levels drive our weather.   You once said "look up not down".   Not sure if that is still your opinion and I know its complicated and the blob became infamous and attributed to way more than it should... but I think in a quiet summer pattern those coastal SSTs do matter even way inland.

I haven’t thought about it much of late, but my opinion hasn’t really changed. It’s not to say that if absolutely everything remained equal that there could be SOME perceptible change to the real feel weather, but probably 98% of the time that’s going to be overwhelmed by mid and upper level effects on the boundary layer. It’s a fun scapegoat.

That said, I do still think the immediate coastline can see some rather noticeable effects, relatively speaking.

 

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I don’t mean to go full Jim, but the marine layer has been a nice surprise. Even without the rain, higher DP’s and lower temperatures reduce evapotranspiration tenfold from the plants. If there’s a marine layer, trees will handle things just fine by groundwater.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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3 hours ago, Requiem said:

Pretty active fire just turned up on satellite in rural Douglas County.

E71A6632-2297-406D-A888-7D727B879533.jpeg

Just to the east of the Archie Creek Fire burn zone. Might as well burn the entire North Umpqua basin. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like Salem nailed their 3rd 90+ high of the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Tacoma Narrows is 6 degrees cooler than this time last night.  This is a really impressive surge of low level cool air moving in this evening.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The WA coast really has a chill going now.  Lots of mid 50s currently.  There's a 1000 foot mountain near Neah Bay that's at 51.  Upwelling!

I didn't know the WA coast had a 1000 foot mountain on it.  Weird. I'll have to look for it when we go up there next. 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like Salem nailed their 3rd 90+ high of the month. 

Yuck.  I really feel for you guys down there.  It's pretty mind blowing that it could be so much warmer than SEA so consistently.  Way more than the normal difference.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tacoma Narrows is 6 degrees cooler than this time last night.  This is a really impressive surge of low level cool air moving in this evening.

Mountains floating on the coast sure have a 'weird' cooling effect. Whish our coast on Oregon wasn't endless sea. 

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Just now, Link said:

I didn't know the WA coast had a 1000 foot mountain on it.  Weird. I'll have to look for it when we go up there next. 

It's just a foothill of the Olympics on the NW part.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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By Next Monday SLE probably be at 7 90+ highs on the month. Looks like 93 tomorrow. And another 3-pack starting Friday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

By Next Monday SLE probably be at 7 90+ highs on the month. Looks like 93 tomorrow. And another 3-pack starting Friday. 

Should I change the batteries of the 3 pack? :)  Maybe that will stop the 90sF from chirping and we will cool off too. FIRST ALERT BRK 9120B-3 Hardwired Smoke Alarm with Backup Battery, 3 Pack, White, 3 Count" - - Amazon.com

Kidde Smoke Detector Alarm | Battery Operated | Model # I9050 Pack of 3, 1 Lb: Amazon.com: Industrial & Scientific

Hmmm which ones to change. 

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GFS could be worse. We'll keep racking up the low 90s, but no major heat on the immediate horizon. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS could be worse. We'll keep racking up the low 90s, but no major heat on the immediate horizon. 

Unfortunately, extended 90s sounds like a real worst case scenario

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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34 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You didn't answer the question....

No saved posts... but I wish I did sometimes when trying to search on keywords.    And way too many maps.    Mostly because I am too lazy to clean it up. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The fire in the North Umpqua Basin started this afternoon from a blown tire on a boat trailer. Looks like its up to 800 acres already. 

https://www.kdrv.com/content/news/Jack-Fire-burning-in-Douglas-County-574772241.html

Here are a couple pics. Shooting off quite the plume.

https://kpic.com/news/local/gallery/fire-burning-in-douglas-county-near-steamboat-area-approx-50-acres-in-size#photo-2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If you have an hour... here is Cliff's write up on the heat wave and his take on global warming.     Its probably his longest post ever.

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/was-global-warming-cause-of-great.html

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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